Hey gang,
I'm not going to write too much about the Super Bowl, because I don't have that much to say (unlike last year, when I was trying to argue that predicting a massive upset of an undefeated team was not completely insane) and I have lots of other things I need to be doing. One piece of good news before we get started: After writing about football recreationally for so many years, I'm finally going to have something about the NFL published for the first time tomorrow. I pitched an idea to my editor at the Post-Standard for a short piece about Super Bowl prop bets, and to my surprise he really liked the idea. So in tomorrow's paper, my article will include a few paragraphs about the amount of money gambled on the Super Bowl and all the crazy prop bets that casinos and websites take on the game, then I picked out 10 different prop bets and made predictions for all of them. Good times. I've published five or six different stories in the paper over the past couple of weeks, and I think there will be two more coming tomorrow, plus a couple others later in the week. So the internship is off to a good start. If you want to read my stuff, just go to syracuse.com and type my name into the search bar. You'll see a couple of my most recent stories listed, and if you click "more" at the bottom of the list it should expand to show all of them.
Okay, so the Super Bowl. I'm going with the Steelers. No surprise there. I've been championing Pittsburgh all season long. I think it should be an excellent game, and I'm really looking forward to it. It's just a great matchup of strength against strength, with Arizona's offense against Pittsburgh's defense. Counting playoffs, Arizona has scored 30+ points in 10 of their 19 games this season. Pittsburgh has allowed 30 points only once (late in the season, against Tennessee).
In terms of postseason success, Arizona's offense is among the best ever. They scored 30 or more in all three of their playoff games so far. It is only the 7th time that a team has scored 30 points in three consecutive games in one playoff season. The other six teams all won the Super Bowl (the '78 Steelers, '83 Raiders, '89 49ers, '92 Cowboys, '94 49ers, and '96 Packers-- and by the way, I hope you all appreciate that I actually did research for once, rather than just talking out of my ass. www.pro-football-reference.com is possibly my favorite website ever). Notably, those other six teams all scored their 30-point games in the divisional round, the conference championship, and the Super Bowl. In other words, the Cardinals are the first to ever hit the 30 point mark in the first three rounds of the playoffs, and would be the only team to put up 30 points in 4 playoff games if they do so in the Super Bowl. That seems unlikely against the Steelers defense, but certainly within the realm of possibility.
While Arizona's play has been excellent so far in the postseason, the NFC Championship Game probably gave Cardinals fans reason to worry. The team's defense had been much better than usual in the first two rounds, as they held Atlanta and Carolina well below their respective season averages in offensive yardage. Then the Eagles gouged the Cards for 454 total yards (375 through the air) and Arizona blew an 18 point lead, before coming back to win in the end. Not exactly the way you want to see your team perform in their final game before the Super Bowl.
And what to say of the Steelers? They look like the textbook Super Bowl team. A suffocating defense that forces plenty of turnovers, with an offense led by a smart, talented quarterback who makes sound decisions and enough playmakers at running back and receiver to put some points on the board. Ben Roethlisberger's performance in Super Bowl XL was nothing short of atrocious. Probably the worst performance by any quarterback who won the Super Bowl. (And, for the record, I still think the Seahawks were the better team that year.) Early in Roethlisberger's career, I wasn't sold on him. I thought he was overrated, and that the media drooled over his fantastic won-loss record, when that record was due mostly to Pittsburgh's defense. I thought he was inaccurate and inefficient.
Big Ben still isn't the greatest quarterback in the league. I'm not even sure I would put him among the elite. But he has improved greatly. He's improved his accuracy, and more importantly, he reads defenses very well and takes care of the ball. He doesn't do anything stupid, motorcycle incident notwithstanding. He'll never throw the ball as beautifully as Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, but his decision-making and toughness make him a winner. And, if he pulls through tomorrow night, he'll have one more ring than Manning and only one fewer than Brady.
The Steelers have been steady all season. There were times when they were plagued by injuries to key players, but they kept fighting. They were among the NFL's elite all year long. The Cardinals started hot, went ice cold, then got hot again in the playoffs. Even people who believe the Cardinals will win must be scared that they'll turn back into the team that lost 56-35 to the Jets, 48-10 to the Eagles in the regular season, and 47-7 to the Patriots. (By the way, I still think New England was better than at least half the teams in the playoffs.) The Steelers might struggle, but you know they won't suck. The same is not true of the Cardinals. However, if the Cards play as well as they did against Atlanta and Carolina (and in the first half against the Eagles) the upset could happen.
But I'm guessing it won't. After backing the underdog in three consecutive Super Bowls (and being right only once), I'm going with the favorite in this one. Steelers, 27-21. MVP: Troy Polamalu. I know it's unlikely, since he's a defensive player. But hey, this team is all about defense, and I thought it would be fun to pick a Trojan. And the only other viable way to do that would be to predict that Kurt Warner gets injured and Matt Leinart leads the Cardinals to victory. Which, admittedly, would be sort of awesome.
-Nick
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Conference Championship Picks (Part 2)
Okay, back from work. So about that AFC Championship game...
First, let me address that whole "you can't beat a team three times in one season" thing. There's nothing magical about it. It's not like one team is so much better than another if they play twice, but suddenly becomes worse if they meet up for a third time. The reason there have been so many instances of a team losing in the playoffs to a team they beat twice in the regular season is fairly simple-- regardless of those first two games, they're both very good teams. The team that lost the first two meetings (the Ravens, in this case) must have done very, very well throughout the rest of their schedule to overcome those two (minimum) divisional losses to make the playoffs. Including playoffs, the Baltimore Ravens are 13-3 against teams that are not the Pittsburgh Steelers. So, clearly, they're not bad at football. I mean, we're not talking about a good football team playing a bad football team that they beat twice already. The Minnesota Vikings beat the Detroit Lions twice this year, and I would be very confident that if they played a third time, Minnesota would beat them again. But that's the point-- shitty teams don't make the playoffs.
It's always difficult to beat a good team in the NFL, especially a team that knows you as well as a divisional rival. A game like this will almost always be close and hard-fought. You might as well flip a coin. So even though the Ravens are 0-2 against the Steelers this year, a Baltimore victory later today would not be particularly surprising.
But I'm taking the Steelers. I didn't look at a ton of stats when I made my picks or take long, deep looks at individual match-ups (of course, based on how I've done so far this postseason, maybe I should be doing those things). For me, it was pretty simple. I thought that when the Steelers pulled away from the Chargers in the second half last week, they looked better than any playoff team has so far this year. Meanwhile, the Ravens needed a lot of luck to beat the Titans. I'm not saying they're not a good team or that they don't deserve to be here. For one thing, the Titans are better than the Chargers, and they were on the road last week while Pittsburgh was at home, so it's not a shock that Baltimore had more trouble getting to this game than the Steelers did. So I give the Ravens credit. But... they got some damn lucky breaks. Kerry Collins threw an interception in the red zone. Alge Crumpler lost a fumble in the red zone. The officials missed an obvious delay of game penalty that should have been called against Baltimore but wasn't. The Titans lost the player who had been tearing the Ravens apart early in the second half, and couldn't get into an offensive rhythm after that. Of course, the Tennessee turnovers were not entirely a matter of good luck. Good defenses force turnovers, and Baltimore is a very good defense. But it goes back to the great debate about turnovers-- are they mistakes by the offense or great plays by the defense? Well, usually it's a little bit of both. Some are more about luck, some are more about skill. But I always worry about teams that live and die by the turnover, because they're streaky, fluky things. Sometimes a ball gets tipped up in the air and it falls harmlessly to the turf. Sometimes it falls into the waiting arms of a linebacker. Sometimes a fumble bounces to an offensive player or out of bounds. Sometimes it bounces to the defense. To rely on the turnover is to put your team in the hands of fate. And I don't like to rely on luck. That's why things could go badly for the Ravens or the Cardinals if those bounces stop going their way.
I also like the Steelers because I think they might be better now than they have been all season. Willie Parker, who was slowed by injuries for practically the entire year, looked like a healthy running back last week. It's hard for anyone to run against Baltimore, but Fast Willie is the kind of guy, when healthy, who only needs one good block or one missed tackle to wind up in the end zone. Even the great defenses make an occasional mistake, and Parker is a running back who can make people pay for their errors.
Anyway, that's all for this week. I'm probably wrong about everything. I am willing to accept that. I'll be back with a Super Bowl preview at some point.
-N
First, let me address that whole "you can't beat a team three times in one season" thing. There's nothing magical about it. It's not like one team is so much better than another if they play twice, but suddenly becomes worse if they meet up for a third time. The reason there have been so many instances of a team losing in the playoffs to a team they beat twice in the regular season is fairly simple-- regardless of those first two games, they're both very good teams. The team that lost the first two meetings (the Ravens, in this case) must have done very, very well throughout the rest of their schedule to overcome those two (minimum) divisional losses to make the playoffs. Including playoffs, the Baltimore Ravens are 13-3 against teams that are not the Pittsburgh Steelers. So, clearly, they're not bad at football. I mean, we're not talking about a good football team playing a bad football team that they beat twice already. The Minnesota Vikings beat the Detroit Lions twice this year, and I would be very confident that if they played a third time, Minnesota would beat them again. But that's the point-- shitty teams don't make the playoffs.
It's always difficult to beat a good team in the NFL, especially a team that knows you as well as a divisional rival. A game like this will almost always be close and hard-fought. You might as well flip a coin. So even though the Ravens are 0-2 against the Steelers this year, a Baltimore victory later today would not be particularly surprising.
But I'm taking the Steelers. I didn't look at a ton of stats when I made my picks or take long, deep looks at individual match-ups (of course, based on how I've done so far this postseason, maybe I should be doing those things). For me, it was pretty simple. I thought that when the Steelers pulled away from the Chargers in the second half last week, they looked better than any playoff team has so far this year. Meanwhile, the Ravens needed a lot of luck to beat the Titans. I'm not saying they're not a good team or that they don't deserve to be here. For one thing, the Titans are better than the Chargers, and they were on the road last week while Pittsburgh was at home, so it's not a shock that Baltimore had more trouble getting to this game than the Steelers did. So I give the Ravens credit. But... they got some damn lucky breaks. Kerry Collins threw an interception in the red zone. Alge Crumpler lost a fumble in the red zone. The officials missed an obvious delay of game penalty that should have been called against Baltimore but wasn't. The Titans lost the player who had been tearing the Ravens apart early in the second half, and couldn't get into an offensive rhythm after that. Of course, the Tennessee turnovers were not entirely a matter of good luck. Good defenses force turnovers, and Baltimore is a very good defense. But it goes back to the great debate about turnovers-- are they mistakes by the offense or great plays by the defense? Well, usually it's a little bit of both. Some are more about luck, some are more about skill. But I always worry about teams that live and die by the turnover, because they're streaky, fluky things. Sometimes a ball gets tipped up in the air and it falls harmlessly to the turf. Sometimes it falls into the waiting arms of a linebacker. Sometimes a fumble bounces to an offensive player or out of bounds. Sometimes it bounces to the defense. To rely on the turnover is to put your team in the hands of fate. And I don't like to rely on luck. That's why things could go badly for the Ravens or the Cardinals if those bounces stop going their way.
I also like the Steelers because I think they might be better now than they have been all season. Willie Parker, who was slowed by injuries for practically the entire year, looked like a healthy running back last week. It's hard for anyone to run against Baltimore, but Fast Willie is the kind of guy, when healthy, who only needs one good block or one missed tackle to wind up in the end zone. Even the great defenses make an occasional mistake, and Parker is a running back who can make people pay for their errors.
Anyway, that's all for this week. I'm probably wrong about everything. I am willing to accept that. I'll be back with a Super Bowl preview at some point.
-N
Conference Championship Picks (Part 1)
Hey gang,
I'm going to split this up into two parts because I need to leave for work in a little while. I should be able to finish writing my analysis and post it before Arizona and Philadelphia kick off at 3 (or perhaps a little after). Before we get started, a shameless plug for myself. I just started my internship at the Syracuse Post-Standard, and my first story was printed in the paper yesterday (Saturday). It's about a local high school basketball game. Check it out. Note: The typo in the headline is not my fault, and it was not in the print edition. On to the picks!
AFC: Pittsburgh
NFC: Arizona
Okay, let's talk NFC first, since that's the early game, and it's the pick I agonized over. I sincerely hope I'm wrong about this. The Eagles have been my second favorite team since I was a kid, and it would be great to see McNabb lead the team to the Super Bowl after all the shit he took from fans and media this season. But the more I thought about it, the more I felt that the Cardinals would pull this one off.
Last year, I picked against the Giants three times in the playoffs. I just couldn't quite bring myself to believe they were really that good. Then the NFC Championship game convinced me. I was very impressed by the G-Men going into Lambeau and winning a game in overtime against an excellent Packers team. Meanwhile, the Patriots struggled to win the AFC Championship game at home against the Chargers, even though all of San Diego's star players were battling injuries. So I finally bought what the Giants were selling and picked them to win the Super Bowl by 3. We all remember how that turned out.
Why do I say all this? Partly to remind you that I do occasionally make good picks. But also because the Cardinals convinced me with their win in Carolina last week, much as the Giants convinced me with their win in Green Bay last January. I'm not sure how to explain it. Maybe the Cardinals lost focus after they locked up their division so early in the season. Maybe they were never as bad as they looked late in the year. Or maybe they were that bad, but they're rapidly improving and peaking at just the right time. In any case, Arizona is playing great football right now. It's true that the Panthers could not have played any worse than they did last week, but the Cards deserve credit. They were able to capitalize on the mistakes of Jake Delhomme and the rest of the Panthers. And their offensive game plan was masterful, as they found ways to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald, despite the absence of Anquan Boldin. Everyone in the stadium knew the Cardinals were going to Fitz, and he still torched the Panthers for more than 160 yards.
The maligned Arizona defense is improving by leaps and bounds, as well. The four teams left alive were ranked 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 19th in total defense this season. Arizona was 19th. But they haven't been playing that way in the playoffs. They controlled Atlanta's great running game in the first round, then tortured Delhomme and the Panthers last week. They're a tough, physical team with a knack for causing turnovers. And as much as I hate Adrian Wilson for the dirty hit on Trent Edwards earlier this season, he's a great player and deserves a lot of credit for Arizona's success.
All that being said, I'm not exactly confident in this pick. As I said, I agonized over this all week, and went back and forth on it a number of times. The Eagles are on an unlikely journey of their own. It took multiple miracles just to get them into the playoffs, and I don't think anyone really expected them to win two games on the road (including one against the Giants, the top seed and defending champions). But here they are. Donovan has been good, the defense has been good, and they look very confident right now. There are two things that worry me about the Eagles. One is the health of Brian Westbrook. BW is going to play today, but he's playing through all sorts of injuries and has apparently been hobbling around like an old man with two artificial hips. Westbrook is the engine that drives Philly's offense, so that doesn't sound good.
The other thing that worries me is Philadelphia's lack of success at this level of competition in the Andy Reid-Donovan McNabb era. They are 1-3 in the NFC Championship game and 0-1 in the Super Bowl. Those are not great numbers. On the other hand, that might not mean much, considering their opponent. The Cardinals haven't been in a game this important in 40 years or so.
So how could Philadephia win? Well, McNabb needs to have a great game, and the trainers need to hit Westbrook with enough pain meds so that he can't feel his legs for the entire game. Aside from that, I think the key is getting pressure on Kurt Warner. Warner has been playing very well so far, but you can never tell when MVP candidate Kurt will turn into mistake-prone Kurt. He has a tendency to fumble when hit from behind, so hitting him early and often could turn the game in Philadelphia's favor. He also tends to get flustered and throw bad passes when he's under heat. You know Asante Samuel is going to be looking for some throws coming his way.
So those are my thoughts on the NFC game. Official prediction: Arizona wins 27-21. I'll be back to write about the AFC game when I return from work this afternoon.
-Niztradamus
I'm going to split this up into two parts because I need to leave for work in a little while. I should be able to finish writing my analysis and post it before Arizona and Philadelphia kick off at 3 (or perhaps a little after). Before we get started, a shameless plug for myself. I just started my internship at the Syracuse Post-Standard, and my first story was printed in the paper yesterday (Saturday). It's about a local high school basketball game. Check it out. Note: The typo in the headline is not my fault, and it was not in the print edition. On to the picks!
AFC: Pittsburgh
NFC: Arizona
Okay, let's talk NFC first, since that's the early game, and it's the pick I agonized over. I sincerely hope I'm wrong about this. The Eagles have been my second favorite team since I was a kid, and it would be great to see McNabb lead the team to the Super Bowl after all the shit he took from fans and media this season. But the more I thought about it, the more I felt that the Cardinals would pull this one off.
Last year, I picked against the Giants three times in the playoffs. I just couldn't quite bring myself to believe they were really that good. Then the NFC Championship game convinced me. I was very impressed by the G-Men going into Lambeau and winning a game in overtime against an excellent Packers team. Meanwhile, the Patriots struggled to win the AFC Championship game at home against the Chargers, even though all of San Diego's star players were battling injuries. So I finally bought what the Giants were selling and picked them to win the Super Bowl by 3. We all remember how that turned out.
Why do I say all this? Partly to remind you that I do occasionally make good picks. But also because the Cardinals convinced me with their win in Carolina last week, much as the Giants convinced me with their win in Green Bay last January. I'm not sure how to explain it. Maybe the Cardinals lost focus after they locked up their division so early in the season. Maybe they were never as bad as they looked late in the year. Or maybe they were that bad, but they're rapidly improving and peaking at just the right time. In any case, Arizona is playing great football right now. It's true that the Panthers could not have played any worse than they did last week, but the Cards deserve credit. They were able to capitalize on the mistakes of Jake Delhomme and the rest of the Panthers. And their offensive game plan was masterful, as they found ways to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald, despite the absence of Anquan Boldin. Everyone in the stadium knew the Cardinals were going to Fitz, and he still torched the Panthers for more than 160 yards.
The maligned Arizona defense is improving by leaps and bounds, as well. The four teams left alive were ranked 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 19th in total defense this season. Arizona was 19th. But they haven't been playing that way in the playoffs. They controlled Atlanta's great running game in the first round, then tortured Delhomme and the Panthers last week. They're a tough, physical team with a knack for causing turnovers. And as much as I hate Adrian Wilson for the dirty hit on Trent Edwards earlier this season, he's a great player and deserves a lot of credit for Arizona's success.
All that being said, I'm not exactly confident in this pick. As I said, I agonized over this all week, and went back and forth on it a number of times. The Eagles are on an unlikely journey of their own. It took multiple miracles just to get them into the playoffs, and I don't think anyone really expected them to win two games on the road (including one against the Giants, the top seed and defending champions). But here they are. Donovan has been good, the defense has been good, and they look very confident right now. There are two things that worry me about the Eagles. One is the health of Brian Westbrook. BW is going to play today, but he's playing through all sorts of injuries and has apparently been hobbling around like an old man with two artificial hips. Westbrook is the engine that drives Philly's offense, so that doesn't sound good.
The other thing that worries me is Philadelphia's lack of success at this level of competition in the Andy Reid-Donovan McNabb era. They are 1-3 in the NFC Championship game and 0-1 in the Super Bowl. Those are not great numbers. On the other hand, that might not mean much, considering their opponent. The Cardinals haven't been in a game this important in 40 years or so.
So how could Philadephia win? Well, McNabb needs to have a great game, and the trainers need to hit Westbrook with enough pain meds so that he can't feel his legs for the entire game. Aside from that, I think the key is getting pressure on Kurt Warner. Warner has been playing very well so far, but you can never tell when MVP candidate Kurt will turn into mistake-prone Kurt. He has a tendency to fumble when hit from behind, so hitting him early and often could turn the game in Philadelphia's favor. He also tends to get flustered and throw bad passes when he's under heat. You know Asante Samuel is going to be looking for some throws coming his way.
So those are my thoughts on the NFC game. Official prediction: Arizona wins 27-21. I'll be back to write about the AFC game when I return from work this afternoon.
-Niztradamus
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Divisional Round Picks
Hey gang,
So my picks got off to a mediocre start in the first round, as I went 2-2 last weekend. I should have seen San Diego's victory over Indy coming, that was my fault. But I'm still stunned by Arizona beating Atlanta. Not that I thought the Falcons were that good, but I thought the Cardinals were that bad. Anyway, here's what I think about this weekend's games.
Baltimore at Tennessee: TITANS. Tough call in this game. It's a meeting between the two teams that tied for the league lead in point differential in the regular season. Of course, the Titans lost 23-0 to the Colts in a meaningless Week 17 game, and that's the kind of thing that will put a dent in your differential. So it would be easy to toss that game out and say the Titans weren't trying at all, which may be true. But it's also true that you don't want your team coming into the playoffs after such a resounding loss. Hard to figure that one.
I think the Ravens are a bit overrated right now. People are going wild over Ed Reed (understandably so-- he's a great player, but it seems like a lot of people don't realize he's been playing like this for years. And they're making him out to be a touchdown machine. Granted, he does have a nose for the end zone after he intercepts a pass, but come on, he's a safety. He's not going to score-- or even get an interception-- in every game), and everyone seems very impressed with the win in Miami last week. I stand by my statement that the Dolphins were probably the worst 11-5 team in the history of the NFL's 16-game season. I would have taken any playoff team (except the Cardinals) with confidence on the road against Miami.
All that being said, the Ravens are very good. I won't take that away from them. Excellent defense, good running game, quarterback who doesn't make many big mistakes. But the Titans also have an excellent defense, a GREAT running game, and a quarterback who didn't make many mistakes in the regular season. I think that's the key to this game-- how Kerry Collins deals with the pressure of the playoffs. As you may remember, his last postseason meeting with the Ravens didn't go so well. He played for the Giants. Another X-factor is the absence of the Titans' all-pro center Kevin Mawae. If those Baltimore linebackers can rush up the middle against Mawae's understudy, Collins may have a long day. Anyway, I'm going with the Titans because they're well-rested, I think their running game might be able to move the ball against the Ravens, and I have doubts about Baltimore's offense against Tennessee's D. And it seems to me that Kerry Collins has grown more levelheaded with age and probably won't crack under the pressure. So there's the pick. Titans win a close one. Wow, I did not intend to write that much about this game.
Arizona at Carolina: PANTHERS. I was wrong about the Cardinals last week. I'm not wrong this time. The Cardinals were atrocious on the road this season, especially on the east coast, and the Panthers went undefeated at home. Plus the Panthers are just a better team, all-around. As if that weren't enough, receiver Anquan Boldin is hurt and will be limited for the Cardinals, assuming he plays at all. The Panthers will win with ease. Last I saw, the Panthers were about 10-point favorites in this game. I'm not betting this weekend, but if I were, I would have no qualms with that double-digit spread. I think Carolina will win by 20 or more. (Note: if Steve Smith punches a teammate before the game, all bets are off)
Philadelphia at New York Giants: GIANTS. I'm pretty pumped about this game. Too bad I'll be at work for the first half. The Eagles are on fire right now, and they beat the Giants the last time they traveled to Jersey. I desperately wanted to pick the Eagles here, but I still think the champs will step up and do whatever's necessary to win. Brandon Jacobs should be close to 100%, as well, which will be a big boost.
San Diego at Pittsburgh: STEELERS. The Chargers gave the Steelers all they could handle when they came to Pittsburgh in the regular season (the Steelers won 11-10 in that wacky game with the bizarre ending, when it looked like Troy Polamalu scored a defensive TD, but the officials took it off the board, preserving the first ever 11-10 final score in NFL history). I wouldn't be shocked if the Chargers won here. Big Ben suffered a concussion in the last game of the season (when he should have spent the game on the sidelines in the first place, since the game was meaningless and Roethlisberger is the heart and soul of their offense), and he's going to play, but players-- especially quarterbacks-- are rarely themselves when returning from a concussion. I honestly think Ben's health is a bigger concern for the Steelers than Tomlinson's likely absence is for the Chargers. Let's face it-- LT just wasn't that good this season, and Sproles has been fantastic. At this point, and I can't believe I'm saying this, I don't think the Chargers are losing much with Tomlinson in street clothes. However, I strongly suspect that the perpetually shitty condition of Hines Field will make it difficult for the small, speedy Sproles to have the kind of game he usually does. So I'm taking Pittsburgh more or less based on homefield advantage (remember that west coast teams had a terrible record on the east coast this season) and I hope that Roethlisberger isn't too woozy.
As you may have noticed, I took all road teams last week and all home teams this week. That makes sense to me. I haven't looked at the numbers, but I bet road teams have a much higher winning percentage in week 1 of the playoffs than in week 2. In the second round, you have the two best teams in each conference playing at home after a full week of rest against teams that should be inferior. It's a difficult situation for a road team to be in. Still, wild card teams (or at least teams that played in the first round of the playoffs) have had a great deal of success in recent years, so I have a gut feeling we'll see at least one upset this weekend. I just couldn't figure out who it would be, so I took the safer path and picked the teams that are playing at home and are supposed to be better, anyway.
Okay, that's all for this round. Enjoy the games, and I'll be back next week to preview the conference championships.
-Niztradamus
So my picks got off to a mediocre start in the first round, as I went 2-2 last weekend. I should have seen San Diego's victory over Indy coming, that was my fault. But I'm still stunned by Arizona beating Atlanta. Not that I thought the Falcons were that good, but I thought the Cardinals were that bad. Anyway, here's what I think about this weekend's games.
Baltimore at Tennessee: TITANS. Tough call in this game. It's a meeting between the two teams that tied for the league lead in point differential in the regular season. Of course, the Titans lost 23-0 to the Colts in a meaningless Week 17 game, and that's the kind of thing that will put a dent in your differential. So it would be easy to toss that game out and say the Titans weren't trying at all, which may be true. But it's also true that you don't want your team coming into the playoffs after such a resounding loss. Hard to figure that one.
I think the Ravens are a bit overrated right now. People are going wild over Ed Reed (understandably so-- he's a great player, but it seems like a lot of people don't realize he's been playing like this for years. And they're making him out to be a touchdown machine. Granted, he does have a nose for the end zone after he intercepts a pass, but come on, he's a safety. He's not going to score-- or even get an interception-- in every game), and everyone seems very impressed with the win in Miami last week. I stand by my statement that the Dolphins were probably the worst 11-5 team in the history of the NFL's 16-game season. I would have taken any playoff team (except the Cardinals) with confidence on the road against Miami.
All that being said, the Ravens are very good. I won't take that away from them. Excellent defense, good running game, quarterback who doesn't make many big mistakes. But the Titans also have an excellent defense, a GREAT running game, and a quarterback who didn't make many mistakes in the regular season. I think that's the key to this game-- how Kerry Collins deals with the pressure of the playoffs. As you may remember, his last postseason meeting with the Ravens didn't go so well. He played for the Giants. Another X-factor is the absence of the Titans' all-pro center Kevin Mawae. If those Baltimore linebackers can rush up the middle against Mawae's understudy, Collins may have a long day. Anyway, I'm going with the Titans because they're well-rested, I think their running game might be able to move the ball against the Ravens, and I have doubts about Baltimore's offense against Tennessee's D. And it seems to me that Kerry Collins has grown more levelheaded with age and probably won't crack under the pressure. So there's the pick. Titans win a close one. Wow, I did not intend to write that much about this game.
Arizona at Carolina: PANTHERS. I was wrong about the Cardinals last week. I'm not wrong this time. The Cardinals were atrocious on the road this season, especially on the east coast, and the Panthers went undefeated at home. Plus the Panthers are just a better team, all-around. As if that weren't enough, receiver Anquan Boldin is hurt and will be limited for the Cardinals, assuming he plays at all. The Panthers will win with ease. Last I saw, the Panthers were about 10-point favorites in this game. I'm not betting this weekend, but if I were, I would have no qualms with that double-digit spread. I think Carolina will win by 20 or more. (Note: if Steve Smith punches a teammate before the game, all bets are off)
Philadelphia at New York Giants: GIANTS. I'm pretty pumped about this game. Too bad I'll be at work for the first half. The Eagles are on fire right now, and they beat the Giants the last time they traveled to Jersey. I desperately wanted to pick the Eagles here, but I still think the champs will step up and do whatever's necessary to win. Brandon Jacobs should be close to 100%, as well, which will be a big boost.
San Diego at Pittsburgh: STEELERS. The Chargers gave the Steelers all they could handle when they came to Pittsburgh in the regular season (the Steelers won 11-10 in that wacky game with the bizarre ending, when it looked like Troy Polamalu scored a defensive TD, but the officials took it off the board, preserving the first ever 11-10 final score in NFL history). I wouldn't be shocked if the Chargers won here. Big Ben suffered a concussion in the last game of the season (when he should have spent the game on the sidelines in the first place, since the game was meaningless and Roethlisberger is the heart and soul of their offense), and he's going to play, but players-- especially quarterbacks-- are rarely themselves when returning from a concussion. I honestly think Ben's health is a bigger concern for the Steelers than Tomlinson's likely absence is for the Chargers. Let's face it-- LT just wasn't that good this season, and Sproles has been fantastic. At this point, and I can't believe I'm saying this, I don't think the Chargers are losing much with Tomlinson in street clothes. However, I strongly suspect that the perpetually shitty condition of Hines Field will make it difficult for the small, speedy Sproles to have the kind of game he usually does. So I'm taking Pittsburgh more or less based on homefield advantage (remember that west coast teams had a terrible record on the east coast this season) and I hope that Roethlisberger isn't too woozy.
As you may have noticed, I took all road teams last week and all home teams this week. That makes sense to me. I haven't looked at the numbers, but I bet road teams have a much higher winning percentage in week 1 of the playoffs than in week 2. In the second round, you have the two best teams in each conference playing at home after a full week of rest against teams that should be inferior. It's a difficult situation for a road team to be in. Still, wild card teams (or at least teams that played in the first round of the playoffs) have had a great deal of success in recent years, so I have a gut feeling we'll see at least one upset this weekend. I just couldn't figure out who it would be, so I took the safer path and picked the teams that are playing at home and are supposed to be better, anyway.
Okay, that's all for this round. Enjoy the games, and I'll be back next week to preview the conference championships.
-Niztradamus
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Wild Card Weekend Picks
Hey gang,
It's finally here-- the NFL playoffs. Here's hoping this year's model is as exciting as last year's. I've only got about an hour before kickoff, so I figured it was time to make the picks. I won't keep you in suspense; I'm taking all the road teams. This isn't as bold a choice as it sounds. Last I heard, all the road teams were favored, although it wouldn't shock me if the Vikings wound up being favored over the Eagles before kickoff. That's also the only game of the four that really made me think. The Vikes are tough and they could beat the Eagles. I could also see the Chargers beating the Colts, which sounds odd, because the Colts are 12-4 and have won 9 straight games, while the Chargers are 8-8 and only made the playoffs by the grace of God and the ineptitude of the Denver Broncos (with a little help from the Buffalo Bills, I might add). But San Diego has been playing well for a few weeks now, they looked great against Denver, and the road trip could take something out of the Colts. Indy also might suffer from overconfidence, facing a .500 team in the playoffs. Still, I had to go with the three-time MVP and the head coach who has won a Super Bowl (and is not a choke artist). The other two games seem cut and dry. Baltimore and Atlanta should roll over Miami and Arizona, respectively.
Road teams beating home teams in the opening round of the playoffs is a more common occurrence since the NFL realigned divisions a few years ago. See, there used to be three divisions per conference. So you would have three division winners and three wild cards. Now you have four division winners and two wild cards. What this means, for our purposes, is that it's more likely for there to be a division winner (or two) who are actually not as good as the wild card teams. But the NFL automatically gives the division winners the top four seeds, regardless of record. So you wind up with teams playing on the road in the playoffs against inferior teams (see: 12-4 Indianapolis going on the road to play 8-8 San Diego, 11-5 Atlanta at 9-7 Arizona, etc.) I actually think it's kind of fun. It levels the playing field. I'm waiting for a sports league to come up with the idea of handicapping its postseason by using reverse home field advantage. For example, in the AFC the Ravens would play every game at home and the Titans would play every game on the road, etc. It would make for some more exciting playoff games, I'm telling you. Of course, I just saw the flaw in my plan. Teams would try to intentionally be one of the lowest seeds in the playoffs so they could play at home. Then again, that would be kind of fun, too. Because a good team could screw up trying to sneak in as the sixth seed, and miss the playoffs altogether. Good times. Anyway, on to the picks.
Atlanta at Arizona: FALCONS. Man, it's a good thing for the Cards that they wrapped up their division so early, because they were just awful coming down the stretch. They're much better at home, and it is a long trip to the desert for the Falcons, but Atlanta is so much better than Arizona, I can't see them losing this game. The way the Cardinals play defense, Michael Turner will probably have at least 250 yards.
Indianapolis at San Diego: COLTS. I probably would have picked the Chargers if not for the injuries to LT and Antonio Gates. Or maybe I would have picked the Colts anyway. Peyton has been on fire lately. What else do you need?
Baltimore at Miami: RAVENS. Why don't I give the Dolphins any respect? Because they don't deserve any. I've said for years that one of the more reliable predictors of success in the NFL playoffs is a team's point differential (i.e. the number of points they scored all season versus the number of points they allowed). You know who had the best point differential in the AFC East? The New England Patriots. You know who had the second best? The New York Jets. Miami was third. Of the 12 playoff teams, Miami ranks 11th in point differential (only the Cardinals are worse). Miami got to 11-5 by virtue of arguably the easiest schedule in the league and some lucky breaks. Look at their schedule, and see how many quality wins they had. And, no, I don't count the week 17 victory against the Jets as a quality win because Brett Favre spent the game doing his best J.P. Losman impression and the Dolphins barely won. Oh, speaking of point differential, you know who led the league in that category? It was a tie between the Tennessee Titans and-- you guessed it-- the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens will win by 30 or so. Bet on it.
Philadelphia at Minnesota: EAGLES. I like Minnesota, I really do. This was a hard call for me. But the Eagles have been hot lately. It looks like benching McNabb for a half was the smartest decision Andy Reid's made in years. Of course, Minnesota's weakness is pass defense, and the Eagles do nothing but pass. Not a good combination for the Vikes. And the Eagles have a very good-- but sort of underrated-- defense, so they might be able to slow down Adrian Peterson, who apparently has a sore ankle.
Also, it's tradition that I make predictions for the entire playoffs before the wild card round starts. Inevitably, I get a bunch of stuff wrong, but it's tradition. So you have my picks for the wild card round. Now we'll take those outcomes and go through the subsequent rounds of the playoffs.
AFC DIVISIONAL ROUND
Baltimore at Tennessee: TITANS. What a game! Two great defenses, two very good running attacks, this one could go either way. I'll take my chances with the favorite.
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: STEELERS. An outdoor game in Pittsburgh in January against a team with a ferocious defense. This is the kind of game Peyton Manning usually doesn't win. Nothing against Peyton, he's still the man. Just sayin.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Pittsburgh at Tennessee: STEELERS. Because I like them better. And because picking the number one seed is boring. But, to be honest, if you put a gun to my head and asked me who would win this game, I wouldn't be surprised to hear the word "Titans" come out of my mouth. So the bottom line is I'm picking the Steelers, but I feel like I might be deluding myself.
NFC DIVISIONAL ROUND
Philadelphia at New York Giants: GIANTS. And Philly's impossible dream comes to an end. Good run, Eagles. And I seriously thought about picking you here. But the champs are the champs, and I think they'll pull together in the playoffs.
Atlanta at Carolina: FALCONS. What the hell, I have to predict an unlikely upset once in a while, and this felt like a good place. The Panthers are a very, very good team, but so are the Falcons. And I've just got a feeling about Atlanta. They're this year's Cinderella.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Atlanta at New York Giants: GIANTS. But the clock strikes twelve. You're still a year or two away, ATL. You'll get there.
SUPER BOWL XLIII
Pittsburgh vs. New York Giants: GIANTS. Yep, calling the repeat. And it's sad, because I would win some good money if the Steelers won the Super Bowl, but I just don't see it happening.
Okay, that's all for now. Back next week with analysis of round two.
-Niztradamus
It's finally here-- the NFL playoffs. Here's hoping this year's model is as exciting as last year's. I've only got about an hour before kickoff, so I figured it was time to make the picks. I won't keep you in suspense; I'm taking all the road teams. This isn't as bold a choice as it sounds. Last I heard, all the road teams were favored, although it wouldn't shock me if the Vikings wound up being favored over the Eagles before kickoff. That's also the only game of the four that really made me think. The Vikes are tough and they could beat the Eagles. I could also see the Chargers beating the Colts, which sounds odd, because the Colts are 12-4 and have won 9 straight games, while the Chargers are 8-8 and only made the playoffs by the grace of God and the ineptitude of the Denver Broncos (with a little help from the Buffalo Bills, I might add). But San Diego has been playing well for a few weeks now, they looked great against Denver, and the road trip could take something out of the Colts. Indy also might suffer from overconfidence, facing a .500 team in the playoffs. Still, I had to go with the three-time MVP and the head coach who has won a Super Bowl (and is not a choke artist). The other two games seem cut and dry. Baltimore and Atlanta should roll over Miami and Arizona, respectively.
Road teams beating home teams in the opening round of the playoffs is a more common occurrence since the NFL realigned divisions a few years ago. See, there used to be three divisions per conference. So you would have three division winners and three wild cards. Now you have four division winners and two wild cards. What this means, for our purposes, is that it's more likely for there to be a division winner (or two) who are actually not as good as the wild card teams. But the NFL automatically gives the division winners the top four seeds, regardless of record. So you wind up with teams playing on the road in the playoffs against inferior teams (see: 12-4 Indianapolis going on the road to play 8-8 San Diego, 11-5 Atlanta at 9-7 Arizona, etc.) I actually think it's kind of fun. It levels the playing field. I'm waiting for a sports league to come up with the idea of handicapping its postseason by using reverse home field advantage. For example, in the AFC the Ravens would play every game at home and the Titans would play every game on the road, etc. It would make for some more exciting playoff games, I'm telling you. Of course, I just saw the flaw in my plan. Teams would try to intentionally be one of the lowest seeds in the playoffs so they could play at home. Then again, that would be kind of fun, too. Because a good team could screw up trying to sneak in as the sixth seed, and miss the playoffs altogether. Good times. Anyway, on to the picks.
Atlanta at Arizona: FALCONS. Man, it's a good thing for the Cards that they wrapped up their division so early, because they were just awful coming down the stretch. They're much better at home, and it is a long trip to the desert for the Falcons, but Atlanta is so much better than Arizona, I can't see them losing this game. The way the Cardinals play defense, Michael Turner will probably have at least 250 yards.
Indianapolis at San Diego: COLTS. I probably would have picked the Chargers if not for the injuries to LT and Antonio Gates. Or maybe I would have picked the Colts anyway. Peyton has been on fire lately. What else do you need?
Baltimore at Miami: RAVENS. Why don't I give the Dolphins any respect? Because they don't deserve any. I've said for years that one of the more reliable predictors of success in the NFL playoffs is a team's point differential (i.e. the number of points they scored all season versus the number of points they allowed). You know who had the best point differential in the AFC East? The New England Patriots. You know who had the second best? The New York Jets. Miami was third. Of the 12 playoff teams, Miami ranks 11th in point differential (only the Cardinals are worse). Miami got to 11-5 by virtue of arguably the easiest schedule in the league and some lucky breaks. Look at their schedule, and see how many quality wins they had. And, no, I don't count the week 17 victory against the Jets as a quality win because Brett Favre spent the game doing his best J.P. Losman impression and the Dolphins barely won. Oh, speaking of point differential, you know who led the league in that category? It was a tie between the Tennessee Titans and-- you guessed it-- the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens will win by 30 or so. Bet on it.
Philadelphia at Minnesota: EAGLES. I like Minnesota, I really do. This was a hard call for me. But the Eagles have been hot lately. It looks like benching McNabb for a half was the smartest decision Andy Reid's made in years. Of course, Minnesota's weakness is pass defense, and the Eagles do nothing but pass. Not a good combination for the Vikes. And the Eagles have a very good-- but sort of underrated-- defense, so they might be able to slow down Adrian Peterson, who apparently has a sore ankle.
Also, it's tradition that I make predictions for the entire playoffs before the wild card round starts. Inevitably, I get a bunch of stuff wrong, but it's tradition. So you have my picks for the wild card round. Now we'll take those outcomes and go through the subsequent rounds of the playoffs.
AFC DIVISIONAL ROUND
Baltimore at Tennessee: TITANS. What a game! Two great defenses, two very good running attacks, this one could go either way. I'll take my chances with the favorite.
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: STEELERS. An outdoor game in Pittsburgh in January against a team with a ferocious defense. This is the kind of game Peyton Manning usually doesn't win. Nothing against Peyton, he's still the man. Just sayin.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Pittsburgh at Tennessee: STEELERS. Because I like them better. And because picking the number one seed is boring. But, to be honest, if you put a gun to my head and asked me who would win this game, I wouldn't be surprised to hear the word "Titans" come out of my mouth. So the bottom line is I'm picking the Steelers, but I feel like I might be deluding myself.
NFC DIVISIONAL ROUND
Philadelphia at New York Giants: GIANTS. And Philly's impossible dream comes to an end. Good run, Eagles. And I seriously thought about picking you here. But the champs are the champs, and I think they'll pull together in the playoffs.
Atlanta at Carolina: FALCONS. What the hell, I have to predict an unlikely upset once in a while, and this felt like a good place. The Panthers are a very, very good team, but so are the Falcons. And I've just got a feeling about Atlanta. They're this year's Cinderella.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Atlanta at New York Giants: GIANTS. But the clock strikes twelve. You're still a year or two away, ATL. You'll get there.
SUPER BOWL XLIII
Pittsburgh vs. New York Giants: GIANTS. Yep, calling the repeat. And it's sad, because I would win some good money if the Steelers won the Super Bowl, but I just don't see it happening.
Okay, that's all for now. Back next week with analysis of round two.
-Niztradamus
Sunday, December 28, 2008
NFL Week 17 Picks
Well, gang, here it is. The end of the line. It should be a very interesting day, as a lot of things are still up in the air. I can't remember the last time the playoff races were this tight on the last day of the season. Doing quick picks today, because I have a birthday party to plan. On to the picks!
St. Louis at Atlanta: FALCONS. What at unlikely rise for Atlanta. They could wind up the #2 seed in the NFC if Carolina loses to the Saints. I don't think they will, but just to be in that position is impressive.
New England at Buffalo: PATRIOTS. For the 11th time in a row. Kill me.
Kansas City at Cincinnati: CHIEFS. Taking the Chiefs on the road. Somehow, it seemed like the right thing to do.
Detroit at Green Bay: LIONS. Yep, you read it correctly. I'm calling it. Detroit gets off the schneid and into the win column. And the members of the 0-14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers team cry themselves to sleep tonight.
Tennessee at Indianapolis: COLTS. Not for any reason. It's a meaningless game for both teams, and I like the Colts better. That's all.
New York Giants at Minnesota: VIKINGS. Because the game doesn't mean anything for the Giants, and it means everything for the Vikings.
Carolina at New Orleans: PANTHERS. Over/under on Drew Brees pass attempts in this game: 47. Pick your poison.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh: STEELERS. So, the Browns haven't scored an offensive touchdown in 5 games, and now they're playing Pittsburgh. This should be fun.
Oakland at Tampa Bay: BUCCANEERS.
Chicago at Houston: BEARS. In overtime.
Miami at New Jersey Jets: JETS. And the Patriots win the AFC East. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Dallas at Philadelphia: COWBOYS. Just so we can see Romo and Wade Phillips go to pieces in the playoffs again.
Jacksonville at Baltimore: RAVENS.
Washington at San Francisco: 49ERS.
Seattle at Arizona: CARDINALS. With no confidence whatsoever. After last week, I'm not sure the Cards can beat anyone. But going back to the desert should be good for them, and the Seahawks are pretty bad.
Denver at San Diego: CHARGERS. Payback's a bitch.
And that's the season. I'll probably be back next week with some predictions for the playoffs.
-Niztradamus
St. Louis at Atlanta: FALCONS. What at unlikely rise for Atlanta. They could wind up the #2 seed in the NFC if Carolina loses to the Saints. I don't think they will, but just to be in that position is impressive.
New England at Buffalo: PATRIOTS. For the 11th time in a row. Kill me.
Kansas City at Cincinnati: CHIEFS. Taking the Chiefs on the road. Somehow, it seemed like the right thing to do.
Detroit at Green Bay: LIONS. Yep, you read it correctly. I'm calling it. Detroit gets off the schneid and into the win column. And the members of the 0-14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers team cry themselves to sleep tonight.
Tennessee at Indianapolis: COLTS. Not for any reason. It's a meaningless game for both teams, and I like the Colts better. That's all.
New York Giants at Minnesota: VIKINGS. Because the game doesn't mean anything for the Giants, and it means everything for the Vikings.
Carolina at New Orleans: PANTHERS. Over/under on Drew Brees pass attempts in this game: 47. Pick your poison.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh: STEELERS. So, the Browns haven't scored an offensive touchdown in 5 games, and now they're playing Pittsburgh. This should be fun.
Oakland at Tampa Bay: BUCCANEERS.
Chicago at Houston: BEARS. In overtime.
Miami at New Jersey Jets: JETS. And the Patriots win the AFC East. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Dallas at Philadelphia: COWBOYS. Just so we can see Romo and Wade Phillips go to pieces in the playoffs again.
Jacksonville at Baltimore: RAVENS.
Washington at San Francisco: 49ERS.
Seattle at Arizona: CARDINALS. With no confidence whatsoever. After last week, I'm not sure the Cards can beat anyone. But going back to the desert should be good for them, and the Seahawks are pretty bad.
Denver at San Diego: CHARGERS. Payback's a bitch.
And that's the season. I'll probably be back next week with some predictions for the playoffs.
-Niztradamus
Sunday, December 21, 2008
NFL Week 16 Picks
Okay, we're going to run through the picks quickly, because I forgot to do this yesterday. I was editing my new short story all day and the NFL picks slipped my mind. I plan to finish the editing this afternoon/evening, and then the story will be online. It's called "Consumed." I'm pretty happy about it.
On to the picks!
Indianapolis at Jacksonville: COLTS. Indy's on a hell of a winning streak, but for some reason I still don't expect them to get very far in the playoffs. But I've been wrong before and probably will be again someday.
Baltimore at Dallas: COWBOYS. Yep, missed on this one. I'm not surprised that Dallas had trouble offensively against the Ravens. I am surprised the Ravens scored 33 points. If they can get some production from their offense, they could be dangerous in January. Baltimore is one of three teams I could see going to the Super Bowl from the AFC. Who are the other two?
Pittsburgh at Tennessee: STEELERS. These are the other two. I'm really looking forward to this battle for the top seed in the conference. I picked the Steelers because I think they're a slightly better team, both offensively and defensively. But it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Titans won this game. In fact, if I were betting against the spread, I would have to pick Tennessee on principle. Last time I checked, the Titans were a two-point underdog. It's a rare day that you get the team with the best record in the NFL playing at home and they're not a heavy favorite, let alone an underdog. That's the kind of bet you make, regardless of circumstances. It will work out more often than it won't.
Cincinnati at Cleveland: BROWNS. I guess. I don't have confidence in either of these teams.
New Orleans at the magnificent 0-14 Detroit Lions: SAINTS. Come on, guys! Two more games! You can do it!
Miami at Kansas City: DOLPHINS. Miami will probably make the playoffs. And they will certainly get destroyed in the opening round.
San Francisco at St. Louis: 49ERS. Because they're better than their record. The Rams are not.
Arizona at New England: PATRIOTS. This looked like a promising season for the Cards, and they did make the playoffs. You've got to give them that much. But they're going to finish around .500 and I doubt they'll get a win in the postseason. This is one of my best bets of the week. Why? Review what the Cardinals have done on the east coast this season.
San Diego at Tampa Bay: BUCS. I'm holding out hope that the Chargers beat the Bucs and the Bills beat the Broncos, to set up a fun Broncos-Chargers game for the AFC West championship next weekend. But neither of those things is going to happen.
New Jersey Jets at Seattle: JETS. But they've been playing pretty badly lately. And it's a long road trip. You could see the Hawks winning this game, right? It will be weird to see Brett Favre and Mike Holmgren on the sidelines with no Packers gear in sight.
Houston at Oakland: TEXANS. I'll say it again-- Andre Johnson is a beast. And the Raiders make me feel depressed. I don't even like the Raiders, but I feel bad anyway.
Buffalo at Denver: BRONCOS. I wouldn't bet on this game either way. The Broncos are inconsistent, even at home (the Raiders blew them out at Mile High, after all), and the Bills are probably getting Trent Edwards back, which will help. Gibran Hamdan would have helped. Anyone but J.P. Losman would have helped. Still, the Bills have won exactly one game in the past two months, and that was a bizarre 54-point outburst against the Chiefs, in which Kansas City actually gained more offensive yards than we did. I'll play it safe and take the Broncos.
Philadelphia at Washington: EAGLES. The Redskins are in a freefall and McNabb has been excellent since the benching incident.
Atlanta at Minnesota: VIKINGS. Tough call. Once again, going with the home team and Adrian Peterson. (With Kurt Warner's Cardinals struggling, Adrian will probably hear those M-V-P! M-V-P! chants getting louder)
Carolina at New York Giants: GIANTS. I almost picked Carolina. But I think the Giants are just too tough, too resilient, to lose consecutive games and give up their stranglehold on the NFC. These are the guys who toppled the New England dynasty, after all. Coughlin says Brandon Jacobs will play, barring a setback before the game. That is very good news for the G-men.
Green Bay at Chicago: BEARS. Finally, an NFC North game that does not involve the Lions that seems pretty clear-cut. The Bears have played better than the Packers over the course of the season, and the game is in Chicago. But the way my picks have gone in this division all year, Green Bay will probably win.
All right, that's all. Have a merry Christmas, a happy Hannukah, a pleasant Kwanzaa, a bodacious Boxing Day, and an excellent winter solstice.
-Niztradamus
On to the picks!
Indianapolis at Jacksonville: COLTS. Indy's on a hell of a winning streak, but for some reason I still don't expect them to get very far in the playoffs. But I've been wrong before and probably will be again someday.
Baltimore at Dallas: COWBOYS. Yep, missed on this one. I'm not surprised that Dallas had trouble offensively against the Ravens. I am surprised the Ravens scored 33 points. If they can get some production from their offense, they could be dangerous in January. Baltimore is one of three teams I could see going to the Super Bowl from the AFC. Who are the other two?
Pittsburgh at Tennessee: STEELERS. These are the other two. I'm really looking forward to this battle for the top seed in the conference. I picked the Steelers because I think they're a slightly better team, both offensively and defensively. But it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Titans won this game. In fact, if I were betting against the spread, I would have to pick Tennessee on principle. Last time I checked, the Titans were a two-point underdog. It's a rare day that you get the team with the best record in the NFL playing at home and they're not a heavy favorite, let alone an underdog. That's the kind of bet you make, regardless of circumstances. It will work out more often than it won't.
Cincinnati at Cleveland: BROWNS. I guess. I don't have confidence in either of these teams.
New Orleans at the magnificent 0-14 Detroit Lions: SAINTS. Come on, guys! Two more games! You can do it!
Miami at Kansas City: DOLPHINS. Miami will probably make the playoffs. And they will certainly get destroyed in the opening round.
San Francisco at St. Louis: 49ERS. Because they're better than their record. The Rams are not.
Arizona at New England: PATRIOTS. This looked like a promising season for the Cards, and they did make the playoffs. You've got to give them that much. But they're going to finish around .500 and I doubt they'll get a win in the postseason. This is one of my best bets of the week. Why? Review what the Cardinals have done on the east coast this season.
San Diego at Tampa Bay: BUCS. I'm holding out hope that the Chargers beat the Bucs and the Bills beat the Broncos, to set up a fun Broncos-Chargers game for the AFC West championship next weekend. But neither of those things is going to happen.
New Jersey Jets at Seattle: JETS. But they've been playing pretty badly lately. And it's a long road trip. You could see the Hawks winning this game, right? It will be weird to see Brett Favre and Mike Holmgren on the sidelines with no Packers gear in sight.
Houston at Oakland: TEXANS. I'll say it again-- Andre Johnson is a beast. And the Raiders make me feel depressed. I don't even like the Raiders, but I feel bad anyway.
Buffalo at Denver: BRONCOS. I wouldn't bet on this game either way. The Broncos are inconsistent, even at home (the Raiders blew them out at Mile High, after all), and the Bills are probably getting Trent Edwards back, which will help. Gibran Hamdan would have helped. Anyone but J.P. Losman would have helped. Still, the Bills have won exactly one game in the past two months, and that was a bizarre 54-point outburst against the Chiefs, in which Kansas City actually gained more offensive yards than we did. I'll play it safe and take the Broncos.
Philadelphia at Washington: EAGLES. The Redskins are in a freefall and McNabb has been excellent since the benching incident.
Atlanta at Minnesota: VIKINGS. Tough call. Once again, going with the home team and Adrian Peterson. (With Kurt Warner's Cardinals struggling, Adrian will probably hear those M-V-P! M-V-P! chants getting louder)
Carolina at New York Giants: GIANTS. I almost picked Carolina. But I think the Giants are just too tough, too resilient, to lose consecutive games and give up their stranglehold on the NFC. These are the guys who toppled the New England dynasty, after all. Coughlin says Brandon Jacobs will play, barring a setback before the game. That is very good news for the G-men.
Green Bay at Chicago: BEARS. Finally, an NFC North game that does not involve the Lions that seems pretty clear-cut. The Bears have played better than the Packers over the course of the season, and the game is in Chicago. But the way my picks have gone in this division all year, Green Bay will probably win.
All right, that's all. Have a merry Christmas, a happy Hannukah, a pleasant Kwanzaa, a bodacious Boxing Day, and an excellent winter solstice.
-Niztradamus
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