Conference Championship Picks (Part 1)

Hey gang,

I'm going to split this up into two parts because I need to leave for work in a little while. I should be able to finish writing my analysis and post it before Arizona and Philadelphia kick off at 3 (or perhaps a little after). Before we get started, a shameless plug for myself. I just started my internship at the Syracuse Post-Standard, and my first story was printed in the paper yesterday (Saturday). It's about a local high school basketball game. Check it out. Note: The typo in the headline is not my fault, and it was not in the print edition. On to the picks!

AFC: Pittsburgh

NFC: Arizona

Okay, let's talk NFC first, since that's the early game, and it's the pick I agonized over. I sincerely hope I'm wrong about this. The Eagles have been my second favorite team since I was a kid, and it would be great to see McNabb lead the team to the Super Bowl after all the shit he took from fans and media this season. But the more I thought about it, the more I felt that the Cardinals would pull this one off.

Last year, I picked against the Giants three times in the playoffs. I just couldn't quite bring myself to believe they were really that good. Then the NFC Championship game convinced me. I was very impressed by the G-Men going into Lambeau and winning a game in overtime against an excellent Packers team. Meanwhile, the Patriots struggled to win the AFC Championship game at home against the Chargers, even though all of San Diego's star players were battling injuries. So I finally bought what the Giants were selling and picked them to win the Super Bowl by 3. We all remember how that turned out.

Why do I say all this? Partly to remind you that I do occasionally make good picks. But also because the Cardinals convinced me with their win in Carolina last week, much as the Giants convinced me with their win in Green Bay last January. I'm not sure how to explain it. Maybe the Cardinals lost focus after they locked up their division so early in the season. Maybe they were never as bad as they looked late in the year. Or maybe they were that bad, but they're rapidly improving and peaking at just the right time. In any case, Arizona is playing great football right now. It's true that the Panthers could not have played any worse than they did last week, but the Cards deserve credit. They were able to capitalize on the mistakes of Jake Delhomme and the rest of the Panthers. And their offensive game plan was masterful, as they found ways to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald, despite the absence of Anquan Boldin. Everyone in the stadium knew the Cardinals were going to Fitz, and he still torched the Panthers for more than 160 yards.

The maligned Arizona defense is improving by leaps and bounds, as well. The four teams left alive were ranked 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 19th in total defense this season. Arizona was 19th. But they haven't been playing that way in the playoffs. They controlled Atlanta's great running game in the first round, then tortured Delhomme and the Panthers last week. They're a tough, physical team with a knack for causing turnovers. And as much as I hate Adrian Wilson for the dirty hit on Trent Edwards earlier this season, he's a great player and deserves a lot of credit for Arizona's success.

All that being said, I'm not exactly confident in this pick. As I said, I agonized over this all week, and went back and forth on it a number of times. The Eagles are on an unlikely journey of their own. It took multiple miracles just to get them into the playoffs, and I don't think anyone really expected them to win two games on the road (including one against the Giants, the top seed and defending champions). But here they are. Donovan has been good, the defense has been good, and they look very confident right now. There are two things that worry me about the Eagles. One is the health of Brian Westbrook. BW is going to play today, but he's playing through all sorts of injuries and has apparently been hobbling around like an old man with two artificial hips. Westbrook is the engine that drives Philly's offense, so that doesn't sound good.

The other thing that worries me is Philadelphia's lack of success at this level of competition in the Andy Reid-Donovan McNabb era. They are 1-3 in the NFC Championship game and 0-1 in the Super Bowl. Those are not great numbers. On the other hand, that might not mean much, considering their opponent. The Cardinals haven't been in a game this important in 40 years or so.

So how could Philadephia win? Well, McNabb needs to have a great game, and the trainers need to hit Westbrook with enough pain meds so that he can't feel his legs for the entire game. Aside from that, I think the key is getting pressure on Kurt Warner. Warner has been playing very well so far, but you can never tell when MVP candidate Kurt will turn into mistake-prone Kurt. He has a tendency to fumble when hit from behind, so hitting him early and often could turn the game in Philadelphia's favor. He also tends to get flustered and throw bad passes when he's under heat. You know Asante Samuel is going to be looking for some throws coming his way.

So those are my thoughts on the NFC game. Official prediction: Arizona wins 27-21. I'll be back to write about the AFC game when I return from work this afternoon.

-Niztradamus