Wild Card Weekend Picks

Hey gang,

It's finally here-- the NFL playoffs. Here's hoping this year's model is as exciting as last year's. I've only got about an hour before kickoff, so I figured it was time to make the picks. I won't keep you in suspense; I'm taking all the road teams. This isn't as bold a choice as it sounds. Last I heard, all the road teams were favored, although it wouldn't shock me if the Vikings wound up being favored over the Eagles before kickoff. That's also the only game of the four that really made me think. The Vikes are tough and they could beat the Eagles. I could also see the Chargers beating the Colts, which sounds odd, because the Colts are 12-4 and have won 9 straight games, while the Chargers are 8-8 and only made the playoffs by the grace of God and the ineptitude of the Denver Broncos (with a little help from the Buffalo Bills, I might add). But San Diego has been playing well for a few weeks now, they looked great against Denver, and the road trip could take something out of the Colts. Indy also might suffer from overconfidence, facing a .500 team in the playoffs. Still, I had to go with the three-time MVP and the head coach who has won a Super Bowl (and is not a choke artist). The other two games seem cut and dry. Baltimore and Atlanta should roll over Miami and Arizona, respectively.

Road teams beating home teams in the opening round of the playoffs is a more common occurrence since the NFL realigned divisions a few years ago. See, there used to be three divisions per conference. So you would have three division winners and three wild cards. Now you have four division winners and two wild cards. What this means, for our purposes, is that it's more likely for there to be a division winner (or two) who are actually not as good as the wild card teams. But the NFL automatically gives the division winners the top four seeds, regardless of record. So you wind up with teams playing on the road in the playoffs against inferior teams (see: 12-4 Indianapolis going on the road to play 8-8 San Diego, 11-5 Atlanta at 9-7 Arizona, etc.) I actually think it's kind of fun. It levels the playing field. I'm waiting for a sports league to come up with the idea of handicapping its postseason by using reverse home field advantage. For example, in the AFC the Ravens would play every game at home and the Titans would play every game on the road, etc. It would make for some more exciting playoff games, I'm telling you. Of course, I just saw the flaw in my plan. Teams would try to intentionally be one of the lowest seeds in the playoffs so they could play at home. Then again, that would be kind of fun, too. Because a good team could screw up trying to sneak in as the sixth seed, and miss the playoffs altogether. Good times. Anyway, on to the picks.

Atlanta at Arizona: FALCONS. Man, it's a good thing for the Cards that they wrapped up their division so early, because they were just awful coming down the stretch. They're much better at home, and it is a long trip to the desert for the Falcons, but Atlanta is so much better than Arizona, I can't see them losing this game. The way the Cardinals play defense, Michael Turner will probably have at least 250 yards.

Indianapolis at San Diego: COLTS. I probably would have picked the Chargers if not for the injuries to LT and Antonio Gates. Or maybe I would have picked the Colts anyway. Peyton has been on fire lately. What else do you need?

Baltimore at Miami: RAVENS. Why don't I give the Dolphins any respect? Because they don't deserve any. I've said for years that one of the more reliable predictors of success in the NFL playoffs is a team's point differential (i.e. the number of points they scored all season versus the number of points they allowed). You know who had the best point differential in the AFC East? The New England Patriots. You know who had the second best? The New York Jets. Miami was third. Of the 12 playoff teams, Miami ranks 11th in point differential (only the Cardinals are worse). Miami got to 11-5 by virtue of arguably the easiest schedule in the league and some lucky breaks. Look at their schedule, and see how many quality wins they had. And, no, I don't count the week 17 victory against the Jets as a quality win because Brett Favre spent the game doing his best J.P. Losman impression and the Dolphins barely won. Oh, speaking of point differential, you know who led the league in that category? It was a tie between the Tennessee Titans and-- you guessed it-- the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens will win by 30 or so. Bet on it.

Philadelphia at Minnesota: EAGLES. I like Minnesota, I really do. This was a hard call for me. But the Eagles have been hot lately. It looks like benching McNabb for a half was the smartest decision Andy Reid's made in years. Of course, Minnesota's weakness is pass defense, and the Eagles do nothing but pass. Not a good combination for the Vikes. And the Eagles have a very good-- but sort of underrated-- defense, so they might be able to slow down Adrian Peterson, who apparently has a sore ankle.

Also, it's tradition that I make predictions for the entire playoffs before the wild card round starts. Inevitably, I get a bunch of stuff wrong, but it's tradition. So you have my picks for the wild card round. Now we'll take those outcomes and go through the subsequent rounds of the playoffs.

AFC DIVISIONAL ROUND

Baltimore at Tennessee: TITANS. What a game! Two great defenses, two very good running attacks, this one could go either way. I'll take my chances with the favorite.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: STEELERS. An outdoor game in Pittsburgh in January against a team with a ferocious defense. This is the kind of game Peyton Manning usually doesn't win. Nothing against Peyton, he's still the man. Just sayin.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Pittsburgh at Tennessee: STEELERS. Because I like them better. And because picking the number one seed is boring. But, to be honest, if you put a gun to my head and asked me who would win this game, I wouldn't be surprised to hear the word "Titans" come out of my mouth. So the bottom line is I'm picking the Steelers, but I feel like I might be deluding myself.

NFC DIVISIONAL ROUND

Philadelphia at New York Giants: GIANTS. And Philly's impossible dream comes to an end. Good run, Eagles. And I seriously thought about picking you here. But the champs are the champs, and I think they'll pull together in the playoffs.

Atlanta at Carolina: FALCONS. What the hell, I have to predict an unlikely upset once in a while, and this felt like a good place. The Panthers are a very, very good team, but so are the Falcons. And I've just got a feeling about Atlanta. They're this year's Cinderella.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Atlanta at New York Giants: GIANTS. But the clock strikes twelve. You're still a year or two away, ATL. You'll get there.

SUPER BOWL XLIII

Pittsburgh vs. New York Giants: GIANTS. Yep, calling the repeat. And it's sad, because I would win some good money if the Steelers won the Super Bowl, but I just don't see it happening.

Okay, that's all for now. Back next week with analysis of round two.

-Niztradamus