Don't have time to write even a semblance of an article this week, as I'm going home for the weekend and I'm trying to get on the road ASAP. Here we go with the picks. Went 11-5 last week, now 30-17 on the season.
Cleveland at Cincinnati: BENGALS.
Minnesota at Tennessee: TITANS.
Denver at Kansas City: BRONCOS.
San Francisco at New Orleans: SAINTS.
Arizona at New York Jets: CARDINALS.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay: PACKERS. (Why is Green Bay the underdog here? The injuries in the secondary? I don't get it)
Atlanta at Carolina: PANTHERS.
Houston at Jacksonville: JAGUARS.
San Diego at Oakland: CHARGERS.
Buffalo at St. Louis: THE BILLS.
Washington at Dallas: COWBOYS.
Philadelphia at Chicago: EAGLES.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: STEELERS.
Enjoy the games. I'll be back in the 'Cuse in a couple of days.
-Niztradamus.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
We're #6!
So on ESPN.com's weekly NFL power rankings, the Bills come in at #6 after improving to 3-0 (we were 10th last week). Obviously, this is not unexpected, as we are one of only 6 teams still unbeaten in the league. They didn't simply rank all the unbeatens at the top of the charts. The Eagles and Steelers are in front of us, despite having one loss apiece, and the undefeated Broncos and Ravens (at 2-0) are behind us. So, anyway, the Bills being ranked #6 is about what I would have expected if I had stopped to think about it. But it was still stunning for me to click on the rankings and see the Bills so close to the top of the page. I can't remember the last time we were considered one of the NFL's 6 best teams. Of course, this really has no meaning since it's just one web site's opinion, and the best teams in the league after 3 games won't necessarily be the best teams after 16 games. My mantra right now is "All this means is we can't do worse than 3-13." Hopefully, after we play the Rams next week I'll be saying we can't do worse than 4-12.
Some fans were probably discouraged by the way we struggled against the Raiders last week but I actually found the win encouraging. It's not as if we were revealed to be a mediocre team that lucked out in the first two weeks. We are a legitimately good team that simply played poorly and made a lot of mistakes for three quarters on Sunday. But when it mattered most we asserted ourselves, took control of the game, and made a thrilling comeback. That's the kind of thing good teams do. Everybody makes mistakes, everybody plays a bad game once in a while, but the good teams are the ones who let their bad games hurt them the least. And the Bills managed to escape a bad game with a win on Sunday. I'll take it. I think what happened was we had a letdown game after being really pumped to open the season at home against Seattle, and then getting really pumped up again in Week 2 to go on the road against the Jags, who were expected to be a very good team this year and who put a beating on us last season. Suddenly, we found ourselves making headlines around the league and everyone accepted that we would blow Oakland out of the water (well, not me. Remember, in my picks article I predicted the Bills would make us sweat. I also almost predicted the Dolphins would beat the Patriots... but then I wussed out). We started drinking our own Kool-Aid, thought that all we had to do was show up and we would beat the Raiders, and they nearly caught us sleeping. Nearly.
So I didn't take the loss too hard. A couple things that made it easier to take were that the defending champion Giants, who looked as good as anyone through the first two weeks, had to go to overtime to beat the lowly Bengals. And the mighty Patriots, the proud owners of last year's 16-0 regular season, were blown out by the Dolphins, who won all of 1 game in 2007. So it's safe to say there were some good teams out there who had worse days than the Bills on Sunday.
Hopefully, our young team will have learned its lesson that you can't just show up and win. You have to play hard every game, regardless of the opponent. And I'm hoping that means we'll come out with intensity and put a hurting on the Rams this weekend.
Last season, the Bills finished 30th in total offense and 31st in total defense. This year, we are 15th in total offense and 5th in total defense. Sure, the offense is still middle of the road, but considering we moved up 15 spots, I'll take it. And the improvement by the defense is mind-blowing. In the past two weeks, we've held two pretty damn good rushing teams under 100 yards on the ground. The Raiders gained over 300 rushing yards against the Chiefs, 98 against the Bills. Perhaps the most significant statistic about this year's team is 3rd down defense. Last year, we were terrible on 3rd downs on both sides of the ball. This year? #1 in third down defense, allowing a conversion rate of only 18%. On offense, we're 15th in 3rd down conversion percentage. Again, middle of the pack, but a lot better than last year.
Aside from the defense, the other reason to be confident in the Bills is Trent Edwards. This guy is developing into a good quarterback. He's exceeding all my expectations I had for him this season. He's no longer just a game manager, a guy who's goal is to not lose the game for his team. Trent is a winner, he's put his team on his back the past two weeks and come out with two big victories. When he drops back in the pocket, I feel a confidence I haven't felt in a Bills quarterback in quite a long time.
So we've got a vastly improved defense, a good quarterback who's only going to get better, a respectable offensive line, stellar special teams, a strong young running back, and a receiving corps that looks better than anyone thought it would. (I don't know why, maybe it's Turk Schonert's influence, but Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish suddenly seem better than they've ever been before). That sounds like the composition of a pretty good team, doesn't it?
Then again, we could still go 3-13. Just remind yourself of that before you start dreaming of a Bills-Cowboys three-match.
Some fans were probably discouraged by the way we struggled against the Raiders last week but I actually found the win encouraging. It's not as if we were revealed to be a mediocre team that lucked out in the first two weeks. We are a legitimately good team that simply played poorly and made a lot of mistakes for three quarters on Sunday. But when it mattered most we asserted ourselves, took control of the game, and made a thrilling comeback. That's the kind of thing good teams do. Everybody makes mistakes, everybody plays a bad game once in a while, but the good teams are the ones who let their bad games hurt them the least. And the Bills managed to escape a bad game with a win on Sunday. I'll take it. I think what happened was we had a letdown game after being really pumped to open the season at home against Seattle, and then getting really pumped up again in Week 2 to go on the road against the Jags, who were expected to be a very good team this year and who put a beating on us last season. Suddenly, we found ourselves making headlines around the league and everyone accepted that we would blow Oakland out of the water (well, not me. Remember, in my picks article I predicted the Bills would make us sweat. I also almost predicted the Dolphins would beat the Patriots... but then I wussed out). We started drinking our own Kool-Aid, thought that all we had to do was show up and we would beat the Raiders, and they nearly caught us sleeping. Nearly.
So I didn't take the loss too hard. A couple things that made it easier to take were that the defending champion Giants, who looked as good as anyone through the first two weeks, had to go to overtime to beat the lowly Bengals. And the mighty Patriots, the proud owners of last year's 16-0 regular season, were blown out by the Dolphins, who won all of 1 game in 2007. So it's safe to say there were some good teams out there who had worse days than the Bills on Sunday.
Hopefully, our young team will have learned its lesson that you can't just show up and win. You have to play hard every game, regardless of the opponent. And I'm hoping that means we'll come out with intensity and put a hurting on the Rams this weekend.
Last season, the Bills finished 30th in total offense and 31st in total defense. This year, we are 15th in total offense and 5th in total defense. Sure, the offense is still middle of the road, but considering we moved up 15 spots, I'll take it. And the improvement by the defense is mind-blowing. In the past two weeks, we've held two pretty damn good rushing teams under 100 yards on the ground. The Raiders gained over 300 rushing yards against the Chiefs, 98 against the Bills. Perhaps the most significant statistic about this year's team is 3rd down defense. Last year, we were terrible on 3rd downs on both sides of the ball. This year? #1 in third down defense, allowing a conversion rate of only 18%. On offense, we're 15th in 3rd down conversion percentage. Again, middle of the pack, but a lot better than last year.
Aside from the defense, the other reason to be confident in the Bills is Trent Edwards. This guy is developing into a good quarterback. He's exceeding all my expectations I had for him this season. He's no longer just a game manager, a guy who's goal is to not lose the game for his team. Trent is a winner, he's put his team on his back the past two weeks and come out with two big victories. When he drops back in the pocket, I feel a confidence I haven't felt in a Bills quarterback in quite a long time.
So we've got a vastly improved defense, a good quarterback who's only going to get better, a respectable offensive line, stellar special teams, a strong young running back, and a receiving corps that looks better than anyone thought it would. (I don't know why, maybe it's Turk Schonert's influence, but Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish suddenly seem better than they've ever been before). That sounds like the composition of a pretty good team, doesn't it?
Then again, we could still go 3-13. Just remind yourself of that before you start dreaming of a Bills-Cowboys three-match.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
NFL Week 3: Love that Home Cooking
Saturday night, time to make the NFL picks. Looks like home teams should dominate this week.
Oakland at Buffalo: THE BILLS. Should be a good day in Orchard Park. A win will move the Bills to 3-0 for the first time since 1992 (and we reached the Super Bowl that season. Coincidence?). Also, Bruce Smith's name is going up on the Wall of Fame at Ralph Wilson Stadium tomorrow. Wish I could be there, as Bruce is probably my favorite Bill ever, but alas, I am far too busy, and I'm going home next weekend. Didn't think I could take the time to make the trip two weeks in a row. Anyway, I'm pretty confident the Bills will win this game, but I don't think it will be the blowout a lot of people are predicting. Just a gut feeling the hometown heroes might make us sweat a little. Prediction: Should be a good day for Marshawn Lynch. Oakland's run defense is not the best, and I think Lynch will enjoy his first 100-yard day of the season and/or his first multi-touchdown game of 2008.
Kansas City at Atlanta: FALCONS. Not quite sure what to think of Hot-lanta yet, but I know one thing: the Chiefs are really, truly, horrendously awful.
Tampa Bay at Chicago: BEARS. One of the tougher games of the week for me to call. These both look like sort of middle-of-the-road teams. When in doubt, go with the home field advantage.
Houston at Tennessee: TITANS. The Texans do have the advantage of an unexpected extra week of rest, after they were forced to postpone last week's game with the Ravens because of Hurricane Ike. And, despite being blown out by Pittsburgh on opening day, I still think the Texans will be a competitive team this year. But the Titans look like a playoff contender (in fact, if Peyton hadn't orchestrated a great comeback against the Vikings last week, the Titans would be the only team in the division with a win). I am especially impressed by Tennessee's defense. Pretty ferocious bunch.
Carolina at Minnesota: PANTHERS. Switching it up with a road team. This was another tough call for me. I think the switch from Tarvaris Jackson to Gus Frerotte will help Minnesota (wow, typing that sentence was weird), but the Vikes might be missing Adrian Peterson, and Carolina has looked pretty good the first two weeks. Plus they get Steve Smith back for this game, and assuming he doesn't punch a teammate in the face during warm-ups, he should make a difference in the game. And I try to make it a policy to pick the team that has won games in a match up between an undefeated squad and a winless one.
Miami at New England: PATRIOTS. But I have this crazy gut feeling the Fins actually have a chance here. Still, my brain overruled my gut and forced me to pick the team that hasn't lost a regular season game in like 20 months. That feeling in my gut may have been caused by drinking way too much coffee earlier tonight.
Cincinnati at New York Giants: GIANTS. The slam-dunk pick of the week. Yes, the defending champs were beating on a much inferior team last week, but they look really strong. The race for the NFC East promises to be exciting, especially after that epic battle between Dallas and Philly last Monday night.
Arizona at Washington: REDSKINS. Wanted to pick the Cards here, both because I like them better than the 'Skins, and because 'Zona's actually been kind of impressive in their first two games. But I just couldn't wrap my mind around the idea of a world in which the Bills and the Cardinals both start the season 3-0 (by the way, how weird would it be if Buffalo and Arizona both went into their game in week 5 undefeated?). Plus, the Redskins looked feisty against Nawlins last week, and it's a long road trip for the Cards.
New Orleans at Denver: BRONCOS. Okay, I'm ready to admit it. Denver is way better than I thought they would be. That offense is unbelievable. Brandon Marshall looks poised to be one of the NFL's elite receivers for the next decade or so, and Jay Cutler has the look of a Pro Bowl QB. On the other hand, Cutler was really not clutch last week. He threw an interception in the end zone on a drive late in the game when Denver desperately needed points. And yes, he did ultimately rally his team to victory, but only after he benefited from one of the all-time bad officiating calls. Keep in mind he should have ended that game with TWO turnovers in the final minutes that cost his team a chance at the win. Still, he's an extraordinarily talented dude, and the clutch-ness may come later.
Detroit at San Francisco: 49ERS. Pretty nice win for this Niners squad last week, on the road against the Seahawks. And people (myself included) may laugh at the Lions a lot, but they showed some toughness last week. They were a lot closer to beating the Packers than the final score indicates. They actually had a lead in that game in the fourth quarter. Then the wheels fell off at the end, but still, they put up much more of a fight against the Pack than I expected. So I don't think this will be an easy win for the 49ers, but it should be a win. Again, I went with the team that has won over the team that hasn't, and the team that's playing in front of its own fans.
St. Louis at Seattle: SEAHAWKS. Oh no, I can't use the "pick the team that's won a game" strategy, because they're a combined 0-4. Seattle has looked somewhat less terrible than St. Louis. Also sticking with the home team motif. I'm tempted to predict a tie but... nah.
Cleveland at Baltimore: BROWNS. For those keeping track, this is the second road team pick. I feel like this might be a stupid selection. For one thing, I'm bucking the home team trend, and the team-that's-won-over-the team-that-hasn't-won trend (Baltimore's 1-0, Cleveland 0-2). But here's the thing-- I'm not quite ready to forget how bad Baltimore was last season (Remember, they were the "1" in Miami's "1-15"), and their win in week 1 was over the Bengals, who look like one of the NFL's worst teams. Plus there's a lot of talent on this Browns team, and they desperately need this game after losing two consecutive home games to start the season. I think they'll come out flying, knowing that if they drop this one, their season is in serious jeopardy. And Joe Flacco looked good in his debut, but he's a rookie from a small school, and he almost has to struggle at the NFL level. Okay, there we go, talked myself into thinking this Browns pick wasn't a godawful idea. We'll see what the score says.
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia: EAGLES. I agonized over this pick. The Steelers are one of my Super Bowl picks, but Philly has looked great so far, I was even impressed while they lost at Dallas last week. Big Ben's shoulder is a concern, Westbrook and McNabb are on fire right now, and-- again-- the Eagles are at home. So there you have it. By the way-- everyone who follows the NFL has probably seen the famous DeSean Jackson premature celebration fumble play a number of times now, but I read something even funnier about Jackson. He had something similar happen in high school. He celebrated a touchdown by spreading his arms, angel style, and diving into the end zone. Except he-- again-- celebrated a little prematurely and landed at the 1 yard line instead of in the end zone. Maybe someone needs to tell DeSean that old school celebration has merit-- simply spike the ball once you are safely and securely in the end zone.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: COLTS. Neither team has looked impressive thus far, but I liked the grit Indy showed with the comeback last week, and the Colts fit both of the trends in my picks this week.
Dallas at Green Bay: COWBOYS. Road team #3. Wouldn't be very surprised if Green Bay wins, but I've gotta stand behind my Super Bowl team until someone beats them. And, as I pointed out earlier, the Pack came perilously close to losing to the Lions last week, even though the final score wound up looking like a blowout in their favor.
New York Jets at San Diego: CHARGERS. This is the pick I'm probably most confident about this week, after the Giants. And yes, I know the Chargers haven't won yet. But they were real close to being 2-0 instead of 0-2. And, after getting thoroughly screwed by Ed Hochuli last week, you know the Chargers are pissed. Really pissed. This is going to be what Bill Simmons calls "an eff you game" and what I call "a fuck you game" (because I am not censored) for the Chargers. I believe that, even if LT doesn't play or is severely limited, the Chargers will win by a large number of points. Prediction: This is a very good week to start Darren Sproles on your fantasy team.
Oh yeah, update on my record. Went a respectable 11-4 last week, improving the season record to 19-12.
All right, that's all for this week. I'll be back again next Friday or Saturday with the week 4 picks.
-Niztradamus
Oakland at Buffalo: THE BILLS. Should be a good day in Orchard Park. A win will move the Bills to 3-0 for the first time since 1992 (and we reached the Super Bowl that season. Coincidence?). Also, Bruce Smith's name is going up on the Wall of Fame at Ralph Wilson Stadium tomorrow. Wish I could be there, as Bruce is probably my favorite Bill ever, but alas, I am far too busy, and I'm going home next weekend. Didn't think I could take the time to make the trip two weeks in a row. Anyway, I'm pretty confident the Bills will win this game, but I don't think it will be the blowout a lot of people are predicting. Just a gut feeling the hometown heroes might make us sweat a little. Prediction: Should be a good day for Marshawn Lynch. Oakland's run defense is not the best, and I think Lynch will enjoy his first 100-yard day of the season and/or his first multi-touchdown game of 2008.
Kansas City at Atlanta: FALCONS. Not quite sure what to think of Hot-lanta yet, but I know one thing: the Chiefs are really, truly, horrendously awful.
Tampa Bay at Chicago: BEARS. One of the tougher games of the week for me to call. These both look like sort of middle-of-the-road teams. When in doubt, go with the home field advantage.
Houston at Tennessee: TITANS. The Texans do have the advantage of an unexpected extra week of rest, after they were forced to postpone last week's game with the Ravens because of Hurricane Ike. And, despite being blown out by Pittsburgh on opening day, I still think the Texans will be a competitive team this year. But the Titans look like a playoff contender (in fact, if Peyton hadn't orchestrated a great comeback against the Vikings last week, the Titans would be the only team in the division with a win). I am especially impressed by Tennessee's defense. Pretty ferocious bunch.
Carolina at Minnesota: PANTHERS. Switching it up with a road team. This was another tough call for me. I think the switch from Tarvaris Jackson to Gus Frerotte will help Minnesota (wow, typing that sentence was weird), but the Vikes might be missing Adrian Peterson, and Carolina has looked pretty good the first two weeks. Plus they get Steve Smith back for this game, and assuming he doesn't punch a teammate in the face during warm-ups, he should make a difference in the game. And I try to make it a policy to pick the team that has won games in a match up between an undefeated squad and a winless one.
Miami at New England: PATRIOTS. But I have this crazy gut feeling the Fins actually have a chance here. Still, my brain overruled my gut and forced me to pick the team that hasn't lost a regular season game in like 20 months. That feeling in my gut may have been caused by drinking way too much coffee earlier tonight.
Cincinnati at New York Giants: GIANTS. The slam-dunk pick of the week. Yes, the defending champs were beating on a much inferior team last week, but they look really strong. The race for the NFC East promises to be exciting, especially after that epic battle between Dallas and Philly last Monday night.
Arizona at Washington: REDSKINS. Wanted to pick the Cards here, both because I like them better than the 'Skins, and because 'Zona's actually been kind of impressive in their first two games. But I just couldn't wrap my mind around the idea of a world in which the Bills and the Cardinals both start the season 3-0 (by the way, how weird would it be if Buffalo and Arizona both went into their game in week 5 undefeated?). Plus, the Redskins looked feisty against Nawlins last week, and it's a long road trip for the Cards.
New Orleans at Denver: BRONCOS. Okay, I'm ready to admit it. Denver is way better than I thought they would be. That offense is unbelievable. Brandon Marshall looks poised to be one of the NFL's elite receivers for the next decade or so, and Jay Cutler has the look of a Pro Bowl QB. On the other hand, Cutler was really not clutch last week. He threw an interception in the end zone on a drive late in the game when Denver desperately needed points. And yes, he did ultimately rally his team to victory, but only after he benefited from one of the all-time bad officiating calls. Keep in mind he should have ended that game with TWO turnovers in the final minutes that cost his team a chance at the win. Still, he's an extraordinarily talented dude, and the clutch-ness may come later.
Detroit at San Francisco: 49ERS. Pretty nice win for this Niners squad last week, on the road against the Seahawks. And people (myself included) may laugh at the Lions a lot, but they showed some toughness last week. They were a lot closer to beating the Packers than the final score indicates. They actually had a lead in that game in the fourth quarter. Then the wheels fell off at the end, but still, they put up much more of a fight against the Pack than I expected. So I don't think this will be an easy win for the 49ers, but it should be a win. Again, I went with the team that has won over the team that hasn't, and the team that's playing in front of its own fans.
St. Louis at Seattle: SEAHAWKS. Oh no, I can't use the "pick the team that's won a game" strategy, because they're a combined 0-4. Seattle has looked somewhat less terrible than St. Louis. Also sticking with the home team motif. I'm tempted to predict a tie but... nah.
Cleveland at Baltimore: BROWNS. For those keeping track, this is the second road team pick. I feel like this might be a stupid selection. For one thing, I'm bucking the home team trend, and the team-that's-won-over-the team-that-hasn't-won trend (Baltimore's 1-0, Cleveland 0-2). But here's the thing-- I'm not quite ready to forget how bad Baltimore was last season (Remember, they were the "1" in Miami's "1-15"), and their win in week 1 was over the Bengals, who look like one of the NFL's worst teams. Plus there's a lot of talent on this Browns team, and they desperately need this game after losing two consecutive home games to start the season. I think they'll come out flying, knowing that if they drop this one, their season is in serious jeopardy. And Joe Flacco looked good in his debut, but he's a rookie from a small school, and he almost has to struggle at the NFL level. Okay, there we go, talked myself into thinking this Browns pick wasn't a godawful idea. We'll see what the score says.
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia: EAGLES. I agonized over this pick. The Steelers are one of my Super Bowl picks, but Philly has looked great so far, I was even impressed while they lost at Dallas last week. Big Ben's shoulder is a concern, Westbrook and McNabb are on fire right now, and-- again-- the Eagles are at home. So there you have it. By the way-- everyone who follows the NFL has probably seen the famous DeSean Jackson premature celebration fumble play a number of times now, but I read something even funnier about Jackson. He had something similar happen in high school. He celebrated a touchdown by spreading his arms, angel style, and diving into the end zone. Except he-- again-- celebrated a little prematurely and landed at the 1 yard line instead of in the end zone. Maybe someone needs to tell DeSean that old school celebration has merit-- simply spike the ball once you are safely and securely in the end zone.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: COLTS. Neither team has looked impressive thus far, but I liked the grit Indy showed with the comeback last week, and the Colts fit both of the trends in my picks this week.
Dallas at Green Bay: COWBOYS. Road team #3. Wouldn't be very surprised if Green Bay wins, but I've gotta stand behind my Super Bowl team until someone beats them. And, as I pointed out earlier, the Pack came perilously close to losing to the Lions last week, even though the final score wound up looking like a blowout in their favor.
New York Jets at San Diego: CHARGERS. This is the pick I'm probably most confident about this week, after the Giants. And yes, I know the Chargers haven't won yet. But they were real close to being 2-0 instead of 0-2. And, after getting thoroughly screwed by Ed Hochuli last week, you know the Chargers are pissed. Really pissed. This is going to be what Bill Simmons calls "an eff you game" and what I call "a fuck you game" (because I am not censored) for the Chargers. I believe that, even if LT doesn't play or is severely limited, the Chargers will win by a large number of points. Prediction: This is a very good week to start Darren Sproles on your fantasy team.
Oh yeah, update on my record. Went a respectable 11-4 last week, improving the season record to 19-12.
All right, that's all for this week. I'll be back again next Friday or Saturday with the week 4 picks.
-Niztradamus
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Week 2 NFL Picks (with sporadic commentary)
On the eve of the second week of the 2008 NFL season, it's time for me to make my picks. Went 8-8 last week. I was disappointed, but that's not terrible considering Week 1 is often difficult to predict.
Chicago at Carolina: PANTHERS. Both teams had impressive and somewhat unexpected wins last week, but I'm going with Carolina because they're the home team and I think they're more likely than the Bears to be legitimate, rather than just having a fluky win in the first week. That being said, I could be completely wrong. Tough to tell about these teams right now.
Tennessee at Cincinnati: TITANS. Because the Bengals look pretty terrible right now, and I think the Titans might actually be better off with Kerry Collins at QB than Vince Young.
Green Bay at Detroit: PACKERS. The biggest surprise about this game is that the Packers are only favored by 3 or 4. If you watched both teams play last week, you would expect the Pack to be double-digit favorites, maybe two touchdown favorites. My guess is the spread is smaller because Detroit's playing at home-- although I don't think that's a big factor, it's not as if Detroit fans are wild about the Lions. They basically go to games to rip on Matt Millen at this point-- and because Green Bay is on the road after playing last Monday night, so they're working on a truncated week. That can be a significant factor for teams coming off MNF games, but I think there's such a vast divide between these teams in terms of talent, the Pack should still win easily.
Buffalo at Jacksonville: BILLS. And I'm not just being a homer here. They really should win this game. Last week they dismantled the Seahawks, while Jacksonville was losing to the Titans. And, not to belabor the point, but Vince Young apparently was undergoing a nervous breakdown during that game. And Jacksonville still lost. Plus the Jags are dealing with a ton of injuries right now, including several on their offensive line, and it's Marcus Stroud's return to Jacksonville, so you know he and the rest of the defense are going to be JACKED UP. As if that weren't enough, the Bills will be celebrating the return of Pro Bowl tackle Jason Peters. All signs point to a Bills win.
Oakland at Kansas City: CHIEFS. The Raiders are pretty terrible, and I think KC will be a better offense with Damon Huard at the helm. Still, both these teams are so bad it's hard to be really confident in either of them.
Indianapolis at Minnesota: VIKINGS. Not confident in this pick at all. Didn't know what to think about this game. Both teams fell on their faces in their openers. Conventional wisdom says the Colts should be better than the Vikings, but man... Indy looked bad last week. And the game is in Minnesota, which counts for something. Tough call.
New York Giants at St. Louis: GIANTS. The Giants are the defending champs, and the Rams looked as bad as anyone in the NFL last week when they got demolished by the Eagles. Enough said.
New Orleans at Washington: SAINTS. But it's another pick I don't have a great deal of confidence in. Basically went with the Saints because they have more upside. They have the potential to be a very good team, whereas I think the ceiling for Washington is "slightly above average." But just because New Orleans could be better than the Redskins doesn't mean they are right now. We'll see what happens. Saints note: Reggie Bush had a great game last week. Far too early to start predicting it will be a breakout season for the running back, but it was nice to see him start off on a positive note.
San Francisco at Seattle: SEAHAWKS. They looked bad in Buffalo, but they're a different team at home, and the 49ers were miserable against the Cardinals last week. Five turnovers, if I remember correctly.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay: BUCS. But I was very impressed with Atlanta last week. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner were sensational in their first games as Falcons. But it might be harder to repeat on the road, and they're not playing the Lions this time around. That being said, Tampa Bay has problems of its own-- the injury to Jeff Garcia being the most notable-- and a 2-0 start for the Falcons is not out of the question.
Miami at Arizona: CARDINALS. Miami is still bad. So is Arizona, but they're a little higher on the totem pole than the Fins.
San Diego at Denver: BRONCOS. We really shouldn't have been surprised by Carolina's victory over San Diego last week. Remember how they started 1-3 last year? Maybe these slow starts will be a recurring problem for Norv Turner. I was probably going to pick Denver anyway-- Mile High/Invesco is still one of the biggest home field advantages in the league-- but seeing that Tomlinson has missed practice this week and might miss the game is what pushed me over the edge. An 0-2 start for the Chargers? Tough to believe, but it could happen. Expect the calls for Turner's head to start coming as soon as the game ends, and many people will start pointing out that Eli Manning has a Super Bowl ring.
New England at New York Jets: PATRIOTS. Take it to the bank. I'm so sick of everyone going ga-ga over the Jets. They're improved, yes... but they're still the Jets. They went 4-12 last season. The Pats went 16-0. Even without Tom Brady, New England is a significantly better team. The only team to ever go 16-0 in the regular season is now an underdog to a team that won 25% of its games last year. Unbelievable.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland: STEELERS. You may remember that my Super Bowl prediction in the season preview was Dallas over Pittsburgh. And the teams who looked like the best in their respective conferences last week were... Dallas and Pittsburgh. And, yes, if you're wondering, I did put down future bets on both teams. And I got 20-1 on the Steelers to win the Super Bowl (only 7-1 on the Cowboys, but still not bad). This will be the first time in my life I have rooted for the Steelers for an entire season.
Philadelphia at Dallas: COWBOYS. Can't pick against my Super Bowl team, can I? Much as I would like to. And I could see Philly winning this game. They looked great against the Rams last week (but, remember, it was the Rams). But playing on the road against the NFL's best team is a different story. If I were picking against the spread, though, I would have to pick the Eagles on principle. Dallas is favored by 7. I don't care how good the Cowboys are-- if you win a game 38-3, you should not be a 7 point underdog against anyone the following week. But since I'm picking straight up, not against the spread, I'll say Dallas wins a close one.
Baltimore at Houston: It would be premature to pick this game now, since they just announced that the game is postponed due to Hurricane Ike, and won't be played until week 10. But, what the hell, I'll do it anyway. TEXANS. And I'll stand by this no matter what happens. See, this is why you love me. I am brash and hasty and make inadvisable decisions, just as any sports prognosticator should.
-Niztradamus
Chicago at Carolina: PANTHERS. Both teams had impressive and somewhat unexpected wins last week, but I'm going with Carolina because they're the home team and I think they're more likely than the Bears to be legitimate, rather than just having a fluky win in the first week. That being said, I could be completely wrong. Tough to tell about these teams right now.
Tennessee at Cincinnati: TITANS. Because the Bengals look pretty terrible right now, and I think the Titans might actually be better off with Kerry Collins at QB than Vince Young.
Green Bay at Detroit: PACKERS. The biggest surprise about this game is that the Packers are only favored by 3 or 4. If you watched both teams play last week, you would expect the Pack to be double-digit favorites, maybe two touchdown favorites. My guess is the spread is smaller because Detroit's playing at home-- although I don't think that's a big factor, it's not as if Detroit fans are wild about the Lions. They basically go to games to rip on Matt Millen at this point-- and because Green Bay is on the road after playing last Monday night, so they're working on a truncated week. That can be a significant factor for teams coming off MNF games, but I think there's such a vast divide between these teams in terms of talent, the Pack should still win easily.
Buffalo at Jacksonville: BILLS. And I'm not just being a homer here. They really should win this game. Last week they dismantled the Seahawks, while Jacksonville was losing to the Titans. And, not to belabor the point, but Vince Young apparently was undergoing a nervous breakdown during that game. And Jacksonville still lost. Plus the Jags are dealing with a ton of injuries right now, including several on their offensive line, and it's Marcus Stroud's return to Jacksonville, so you know he and the rest of the defense are going to be JACKED UP. As if that weren't enough, the Bills will be celebrating the return of Pro Bowl tackle Jason Peters. All signs point to a Bills win.
Oakland at Kansas City: CHIEFS. The Raiders are pretty terrible, and I think KC will be a better offense with Damon Huard at the helm. Still, both these teams are so bad it's hard to be really confident in either of them.
Indianapolis at Minnesota: VIKINGS. Not confident in this pick at all. Didn't know what to think about this game. Both teams fell on their faces in their openers. Conventional wisdom says the Colts should be better than the Vikings, but man... Indy looked bad last week. And the game is in Minnesota, which counts for something. Tough call.
New York Giants at St. Louis: GIANTS. The Giants are the defending champs, and the Rams looked as bad as anyone in the NFL last week when they got demolished by the Eagles. Enough said.
New Orleans at Washington: SAINTS. But it's another pick I don't have a great deal of confidence in. Basically went with the Saints because they have more upside. They have the potential to be a very good team, whereas I think the ceiling for Washington is "slightly above average." But just because New Orleans could be better than the Redskins doesn't mean they are right now. We'll see what happens. Saints note: Reggie Bush had a great game last week. Far too early to start predicting it will be a breakout season for the running back, but it was nice to see him start off on a positive note.
San Francisco at Seattle: SEAHAWKS. They looked bad in Buffalo, but they're a different team at home, and the 49ers were miserable against the Cardinals last week. Five turnovers, if I remember correctly.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay: BUCS. But I was very impressed with Atlanta last week. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner were sensational in their first games as Falcons. But it might be harder to repeat on the road, and they're not playing the Lions this time around. That being said, Tampa Bay has problems of its own-- the injury to Jeff Garcia being the most notable-- and a 2-0 start for the Falcons is not out of the question.
Miami at Arizona: CARDINALS. Miami is still bad. So is Arizona, but they're a little higher on the totem pole than the Fins.
San Diego at Denver: BRONCOS. We really shouldn't have been surprised by Carolina's victory over San Diego last week. Remember how they started 1-3 last year? Maybe these slow starts will be a recurring problem for Norv Turner. I was probably going to pick Denver anyway-- Mile High/Invesco is still one of the biggest home field advantages in the league-- but seeing that Tomlinson has missed practice this week and might miss the game is what pushed me over the edge. An 0-2 start for the Chargers? Tough to believe, but it could happen. Expect the calls for Turner's head to start coming as soon as the game ends, and many people will start pointing out that Eli Manning has a Super Bowl ring.
New England at New York Jets: PATRIOTS. Take it to the bank. I'm so sick of everyone going ga-ga over the Jets. They're improved, yes... but they're still the Jets. They went 4-12 last season. The Pats went 16-0. Even without Tom Brady, New England is a significantly better team. The only team to ever go 16-0 in the regular season is now an underdog to a team that won 25% of its games last year. Unbelievable.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland: STEELERS. You may remember that my Super Bowl prediction in the season preview was Dallas over Pittsburgh. And the teams who looked like the best in their respective conferences last week were... Dallas and Pittsburgh. And, yes, if you're wondering, I did put down future bets on both teams. And I got 20-1 on the Steelers to win the Super Bowl (only 7-1 on the Cowboys, but still not bad). This will be the first time in my life I have rooted for the Steelers for an entire season.
Philadelphia at Dallas: COWBOYS. Can't pick against my Super Bowl team, can I? Much as I would like to. And I could see Philly winning this game. They looked great against the Rams last week (but, remember, it was the Rams). But playing on the road against the NFL's best team is a different story. If I were picking against the spread, though, I would have to pick the Eagles on principle. Dallas is favored by 7. I don't care how good the Cowboys are-- if you win a game 38-3, you should not be a 7 point underdog against anyone the following week. But since I'm picking straight up, not against the spread, I'll say Dallas wins a close one.
Baltimore at Houston: It would be premature to pick this game now, since they just announced that the game is postponed due to Hurricane Ike, and won't be played until week 10. But, what the hell, I'll do it anyway. TEXANS. And I'll stand by this no matter what happens. See, this is why you love me. I am brash and hasty and make inadvisable decisions, just as any sports prognosticator should.
-Niztradamus
Friday, September 12, 2008
Catching up
Hey gang,
Haven't blogged in close to a week. I always feel like I'm describing chronic constipation when I write a sentence like that.
Anyway, here are some quick hits on things I've been doing lately, stuff I've been thinking about, etc.
I finally got a job. I'm going to be teaching for the Huntington Learning Center. I'll be helping students of all ages work on reading comprehension and math skills, and sooner or later I'll also be doing some SAT tutoring for them. The pay isn't great, but it seems like a pretty relaxed place to work, I think I'll enjoy it (I'm particularly passionate about helping kids learn to be better readers) and hey, even though they're not paying me a lot, every little bit helps. I needed me some income. My first day of training was yesterday (Thursday) and I go in for training again tomorrow morning and Sunday morning/afternoon.
Classes are going all right. I have a shitload of work to do and I'm pretty stressed out, but I think I can handle it. But until things calm down a bit (assuming they do slow down eventually, which is no guarantee), posts will probably continue to be infrequent.
Sarah Palin terrifies me. This has nothing to do with her gender and everything to do with her insane policies and beliefs. I can't believe she's actually getting a positive response from a lot of people. In fact, I'm pretty sure a lot more people would be frightened of her if she didn't sound exactly like a character from Fargo.
Speaking of Coen brothers movies, I saw Burn After Reading tonight. It's fantastic, I'd say one of the Coens' best. I should probably qualify that statement by disclosing that I haven't seen No Country For Old Men yet. I know, I'm a failure at life. I've been meaning to ever since it came out (in fact, I made more than one attempt to see it while it was in theaters, but I could never successfully recruit people to go with me), and I will probably rent or download it soon. Arrrrrrrrrrrrr, piracy. But yeah, regarding Burn After Reading, hilarious. What I love about the Coen brothers' comedies is that they mix really broad, over the top humor with some incredibly subtle, dry stuff-- and both styles work well and play off each other. In Burn After Reading, there's some really obvious-- some would say low-brow-- humor, including a few amazing sight gags (the film features probably the funniest prop I have ever seen in a movie. I will say no more). But there was also some brilliant, subtle dialogue that I think was going over the heads of a lot of people in the audience. The film ends with a conversation between two CIA officials, one of whom is played by the always entertaining J.K. Simmons (Juno's father in Juno, B.R. in Thank You For Smoking), that is one of the most well-written, understated, dry, and laugh-out-loud funny scenes in recent memory. It made me laugh until I was in pain. Just a pitch-perfect way to end the movie. And the whole cast is great-- George Clooney, John Malkovich, Brad Pitt, Frances McDormand, Simmons, and Tilda Swinton (whom I don't even like, usually) are all wonderful. See it. See it now. And this better get nominated for some Oscars, goddamnit. My best bet would be a supporting actor nod for Malkovich, and in a just world the Coens would score a nom for the screenplay. But considering it's a comedy, and a very snarky one at that, they might get snubbed.
I've decided to grow my hair out. Not dirty hippie long, but I think I'm gonna go for a shaggy, mop top kind of look. It occurred to me the other day that I actually have kind of cool hair, and I've probably been damaging it by wearing hats almost all the time. So I'm trying to wean myself off my hat habit. And in my first couple days of hatlessness, I think I've already noticed more attention from women. So there you have it, guys. Chicks dig your hair. Or at least my hair. Yes, I said "hatlessness" a couple sentences ago, and no, I'm not sure it's a real word. Wanna fight about it?
Even though I'm busy as hell, I'm still trying to write creatively in the limited free time I have, and I'm still planning on launching this online creative writing project I've mentioned a couple times in the past few weeks. There has been tangible progress made on this thing behind the scenes, but I don't have a timetable for when it might go live. Hopefully soon. I don't want to keep teasing you, but I figured I would just mention that I am still working on this thing and haven't given up on it.
Okay, I think that's all for now. I'll try to come back tomorrow to write something about this week's NFL games. Now I'm gonna start reading my 75th anniversary issue of Esquire, then get some sleep, and hopefully have a good day at work tomorrow. Peace out, gang. I'll be back soon.
-Nick
Haven't blogged in close to a week. I always feel like I'm describing chronic constipation when I write a sentence like that.
Anyway, here are some quick hits on things I've been doing lately, stuff I've been thinking about, etc.
I finally got a job. I'm going to be teaching for the Huntington Learning Center. I'll be helping students of all ages work on reading comprehension and math skills, and sooner or later I'll also be doing some SAT tutoring for them. The pay isn't great, but it seems like a pretty relaxed place to work, I think I'll enjoy it (I'm particularly passionate about helping kids learn to be better readers) and hey, even though they're not paying me a lot, every little bit helps. I needed me some income. My first day of training was yesterday (Thursday) and I go in for training again tomorrow morning and Sunday morning/afternoon.
Classes are going all right. I have a shitload of work to do and I'm pretty stressed out, but I think I can handle it. But until things calm down a bit (assuming they do slow down eventually, which is no guarantee), posts will probably continue to be infrequent.
Sarah Palin terrifies me. This has nothing to do with her gender and everything to do with her insane policies and beliefs. I can't believe she's actually getting a positive response from a lot of people. In fact, I'm pretty sure a lot more people would be frightened of her if she didn't sound exactly like a character from Fargo.
Speaking of Coen brothers movies, I saw Burn After Reading tonight. It's fantastic, I'd say one of the Coens' best. I should probably qualify that statement by disclosing that I haven't seen No Country For Old Men yet. I know, I'm a failure at life. I've been meaning to ever since it came out (in fact, I made more than one attempt to see it while it was in theaters, but I could never successfully recruit people to go with me), and I will probably rent or download it soon. Arrrrrrrrrrrrr, piracy. But yeah, regarding Burn After Reading, hilarious. What I love about the Coen brothers' comedies is that they mix really broad, over the top humor with some incredibly subtle, dry stuff-- and both styles work well and play off each other. In Burn After Reading, there's some really obvious-- some would say low-brow-- humor, including a few amazing sight gags (the film features probably the funniest prop I have ever seen in a movie. I will say no more). But there was also some brilliant, subtle dialogue that I think was going over the heads of a lot of people in the audience. The film ends with a conversation between two CIA officials, one of whom is played by the always entertaining J.K. Simmons (Juno's father in Juno, B.R. in Thank You For Smoking), that is one of the most well-written, understated, dry, and laugh-out-loud funny scenes in recent memory. It made me laugh until I was in pain. Just a pitch-perfect way to end the movie. And the whole cast is great-- George Clooney, John Malkovich, Brad Pitt, Frances McDormand, Simmons, and Tilda Swinton (whom I don't even like, usually) are all wonderful. See it. See it now. And this better get nominated for some Oscars, goddamnit. My best bet would be a supporting actor nod for Malkovich, and in a just world the Coens would score a nom for the screenplay. But considering it's a comedy, and a very snarky one at that, they might get snubbed.
I've decided to grow my hair out. Not dirty hippie long, but I think I'm gonna go for a shaggy, mop top kind of look. It occurred to me the other day that I actually have kind of cool hair, and I've probably been damaging it by wearing hats almost all the time. So I'm trying to wean myself off my hat habit. And in my first couple days of hatlessness, I think I've already noticed more attention from women. So there you have it, guys. Chicks dig your hair. Or at least my hair. Yes, I said "hatlessness" a couple sentences ago, and no, I'm not sure it's a real word. Wanna fight about it?
Even though I'm busy as hell, I'm still trying to write creatively in the limited free time I have, and I'm still planning on launching this online creative writing project I've mentioned a couple times in the past few weeks. There has been tangible progress made on this thing behind the scenes, but I don't have a timetable for when it might go live. Hopefully soon. I don't want to keep teasing you, but I figured I would just mention that I am still working on this thing and haven't given up on it.
Okay, I think that's all for now. I'll try to come back tomorrow to write something about this week's NFL games. Now I'm gonna start reading my 75th anniversary issue of Esquire, then get some sleep, and hopefully have a good day at work tomorrow. Peace out, gang. I'll be back soon.
-Nick
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Good first step for the Bills.
I expected the Bills to beat the Seahawks today. In fact, as a 1-point favorite, I thought Buffalo was one of the best plays of the day. But even I did not anticipate they would win by 24 and dominate the game as thoroughly as they did. This is definitely a good sign for the coming season, and a better debut than I thought we could realistically hope for. On the other hand, we shouldn't read too much into this. It's one game. All it means at this point is that we're not going 0-16. Which is nice. There are several reasons we should be cautious about putting too much stock in the win, however. First of all, I have my doubts the Seahawks are going to be a good team this season. Oh, they'll probably win the NFC West, but that's not saying much. They're pretty thin at receiver (even when they're healthy, which they certainly were not today), and Maurice Morris and Julius Jones are clearly not going to provide Seattle with a great running game. I do think Seattle could be a top-1o team defensively, which is one of the reasons we can be proud of today's game. But back to the reasons why we should temper our enthusiasm-- the Seahawks are notoriously bad on the road, especially on the east coast. They were missing several key players due to injuries and suspensions. And we benefited from some really unusual plays that we obviously cannot count on every week.
We scored twice on special teams (Roscoe's punt return and the fake field goal pass), and a special teams turnover gave us a short field and set up another score. While I do believe our special teams are going to be among the best in the league and should give us a little bit of an edge on a weekly basis, one can only assume today's performance was atypical. Keep in mind Roscoe Parrish scored a punt return touchdown on opening day last season, and that was the only one he scored all year.
The offense still must improve if we're going to be a serious playoff contender. Lynch's touchdown run today was impressive, and he had a few other exciting plays-- it's never easy to tackle the guy-- but he still only finished the game with 70-some rushing yards. Trent Edwards was efficient but unspectacular. There were several plays when he missed open receivers. In close games, those are the sorts of plays that will cost you.
Then again, I will admit there is little doubt the offense has improved from last season, and will probably continue to improve as the year goes on. The return of Jason Peters, whenever he gets back, will be a big boost. Trent will only get better, both because this was only his 8th or 9th career start, and because he saw limited action in the preseason, so he probably wasn't completely comfortable in the offense yet. I didn't see much of James Hardy on the field today (or Leodis McKelvin, for that matter), but I think we can reasonably expect him to contribute to some extent later in the season. Being a rookie, Hardy might just need a little more time to learn the offense.
I think the most encouraging thing about today's game was the performance of the defense. I knew the D would be better, but they're a LOT better, if today's game is any indication. I suppose it's possible Seattle just played really, really poorly, but I don't think so. The offensive line is supposed to be one of Seattle's strengths, and our defensive front seven dominated the line of scrimmage. Spencer Johnson, Marcus Stroud, and Kawika Mitchell look like they were worth every penny. The secondary also performed admirably, although I still anticipate we will be vulnerable to big pass plays on occasion.
I am also very excited by the attitude the team displayed today. They looked like a team that really believes they can make the playoffs, and they intend to do just that. I'm not sure how much of the credit for that goes to the coaching staff, and how much goes to leadership by players (for example, Donte Whitner guaranteeing a playoff spot). In terms of the Bills' new attitude, the fake field goal was the most revealing moment.
Leading 20-10 in the second half, the Bills faced a fourth down deep in Seattle territory. As the field goal unit trotted out, I thought to myself (no lie), "This would be the perfect time to try a fake field goal. The Seahawks are happy they kept us out of the end zone, you can see they're relaxed and relieved. They think the drive is over. We've got a two score lead, so if the fake didn't work, we'd still have a cushion to work with, and Seattle wouldn' t even have great field position. Plus, if we make the field goal, it's still a two score game. A touchdown here makes it a three score game, and it would be a backbreaker. The game would be over." So I watched and waited, to see if they would try a little trickery, while the more reasonable part of my brain chimed in. "They're not going to do it. We're a cautious team. We have been for years. This is an easy kick for Lindell, and you don't want to take points off the board. You don't want to give Seattle any momentum. No, they'll just kick the field goal and trust the defense to not blow it."
But, of course, we did go for the fake, and it was somewhat easier than taking candy from a baby. It was the backbreaker I expected it to be. Seattle's return man coughed up the ball on the ensuing kickoff, and Trent Edwards threw a 30 yard TD to Robert Royal on the next play, putting the game completely out of reach. And here's why I think they went for the trick play: First of all, they've said that the new offensive coordinator wants to put more wrinkles in the offense and be less predictable. More importantly, I think this reflects a new, more aggressive philosophy for the coaching staff, from Jauron on down. I think they probably thought back to last season, when we blew games at home against Denver and Dallas that we should have won. Kicking the field goal would have meant the game was still in reach for Seattle, it would have left us open to a replay of last year's horrific season opener against the Broncos. So they went for the kill, and they got it. This is what good teams do.
Looking ahead to next week, we go on the road to play Jacksonville. Before today, I had my doubts we could win that game. It's on the road, the Jags were expected to be a very good team, and they put a pretty good beating on us in Florida last year. (I believe that was the day J.P. Losman's career died) Now I'm more optimistic. We looked better in the opener than I expected, and Jacksonville played poorly in a loss to the Titans. Even if we lose that game, we should be in decent position. Our following three games are against relatively weak opponents (Oakland, St. Louis, Arizona) so even if we lose to the Jags we could be looking at a 4-1 record heading into the bye week. And if we beat Jacksonville... no, I'm getting ahead of myself.
In other NFL news, the big story is obviously the injury to Tom Brady. No one knows how serious it is yet, and I would be willing to bet it's not season-ending. After all, he walked off the field, he didn't ride off it on a cart. On the other hand, sometimes guys can walk on a blown knee, but running on it or planting with that leg is out of the question. So maybe Brady's season is over. And I'm not saying I hope that's the case. Everyone knows I hate the Patriots, and I used to hate Brady. But now I've developed a great respect for his abilities as a player and a leader, and I must admit that when I see or read interviews with him, he actually sounds like a pretty cool guy. I just wish he played for someone else. So, anyway, the point is I don't wish the guy harm. But, if harm has befallen him regardless of my wishes, there's no denying it makes the AFC East (and the entire conference) much more interesting.
Again, it's only one week, but I feel all right about my Steelers-Cowboys Super Bowl prediction. Pittsburgh utterly dominated Houston today, and the Texans were expected to be a highly competitive team this year. The Cowboys are leading Cleveland 28-7 in the fourth quarter as I write this, and it was nearly 35-7, but Romo ended the last drive by throwing an interception into the end zone. So far, this game has supported my predictions that the Cowboys will be the best team in the NFC (or among the best, anyway), and that Cleveland fans have reason to be worried.
By far the most surprising team of the day-- the Atlanta Falcons. Holy shit. Apparently Michael Turner is really pumped to be out of LT's shadow. 220 yards on the ground in his Atlanta debut. And Matt Ryan played an excellent game in the first test of his rookie season. Maybe it was a fluke. But maybe he's going to be an instant success, reminiscent of Ben Roethlisberger. On the other hand, it is entirely possible that the Lions simply have no defense.
I think the Eagles also turned a lot of heads by winning their opener 38-3. Donovan McNabb threw for an absurd amount of yards, especially considering no one has ever heard of the recievers Philly had on the field today (well, fans of Pac-10 football probably know DeSean Jackson, and the rookie from Cal had an excellent game). If McMazing and Westbrook can stay healthy for once, maybe the Cowboys have a legitimate challenger. Okay, I'm done writing for now. Undoubtedly, there will be a lot more posts about the NFL over the next several months.
We scored twice on special teams (Roscoe's punt return and the fake field goal pass), and a special teams turnover gave us a short field and set up another score. While I do believe our special teams are going to be among the best in the league and should give us a little bit of an edge on a weekly basis, one can only assume today's performance was atypical. Keep in mind Roscoe Parrish scored a punt return touchdown on opening day last season, and that was the only one he scored all year.
The offense still must improve if we're going to be a serious playoff contender. Lynch's touchdown run today was impressive, and he had a few other exciting plays-- it's never easy to tackle the guy-- but he still only finished the game with 70-some rushing yards. Trent Edwards was efficient but unspectacular. There were several plays when he missed open receivers. In close games, those are the sorts of plays that will cost you.
Then again, I will admit there is little doubt the offense has improved from last season, and will probably continue to improve as the year goes on. The return of Jason Peters, whenever he gets back, will be a big boost. Trent will only get better, both because this was only his 8th or 9th career start, and because he saw limited action in the preseason, so he probably wasn't completely comfortable in the offense yet. I didn't see much of James Hardy on the field today (or Leodis McKelvin, for that matter), but I think we can reasonably expect him to contribute to some extent later in the season. Being a rookie, Hardy might just need a little more time to learn the offense.
I think the most encouraging thing about today's game was the performance of the defense. I knew the D would be better, but they're a LOT better, if today's game is any indication. I suppose it's possible Seattle just played really, really poorly, but I don't think so. The offensive line is supposed to be one of Seattle's strengths, and our defensive front seven dominated the line of scrimmage. Spencer Johnson, Marcus Stroud, and Kawika Mitchell look like they were worth every penny. The secondary also performed admirably, although I still anticipate we will be vulnerable to big pass plays on occasion.
I am also very excited by the attitude the team displayed today. They looked like a team that really believes they can make the playoffs, and they intend to do just that. I'm not sure how much of the credit for that goes to the coaching staff, and how much goes to leadership by players (for example, Donte Whitner guaranteeing a playoff spot). In terms of the Bills' new attitude, the fake field goal was the most revealing moment.
Leading 20-10 in the second half, the Bills faced a fourth down deep in Seattle territory. As the field goal unit trotted out, I thought to myself (no lie), "This would be the perfect time to try a fake field goal. The Seahawks are happy they kept us out of the end zone, you can see they're relaxed and relieved. They think the drive is over. We've got a two score lead, so if the fake didn't work, we'd still have a cushion to work with, and Seattle wouldn' t even have great field position. Plus, if we make the field goal, it's still a two score game. A touchdown here makes it a three score game, and it would be a backbreaker. The game would be over." So I watched and waited, to see if they would try a little trickery, while the more reasonable part of my brain chimed in. "They're not going to do it. We're a cautious team. We have been for years. This is an easy kick for Lindell, and you don't want to take points off the board. You don't want to give Seattle any momentum. No, they'll just kick the field goal and trust the defense to not blow it."
But, of course, we did go for the fake, and it was somewhat easier than taking candy from a baby. It was the backbreaker I expected it to be. Seattle's return man coughed up the ball on the ensuing kickoff, and Trent Edwards threw a 30 yard TD to Robert Royal on the next play, putting the game completely out of reach. And here's why I think they went for the trick play: First of all, they've said that the new offensive coordinator wants to put more wrinkles in the offense and be less predictable. More importantly, I think this reflects a new, more aggressive philosophy for the coaching staff, from Jauron on down. I think they probably thought back to last season, when we blew games at home against Denver and Dallas that we should have won. Kicking the field goal would have meant the game was still in reach for Seattle, it would have left us open to a replay of last year's horrific season opener against the Broncos. So they went for the kill, and they got it. This is what good teams do.
Looking ahead to next week, we go on the road to play Jacksonville. Before today, I had my doubts we could win that game. It's on the road, the Jags were expected to be a very good team, and they put a pretty good beating on us in Florida last year. (I believe that was the day J.P. Losman's career died) Now I'm more optimistic. We looked better in the opener than I expected, and Jacksonville played poorly in a loss to the Titans. Even if we lose that game, we should be in decent position. Our following three games are against relatively weak opponents (Oakland, St. Louis, Arizona) so even if we lose to the Jags we could be looking at a 4-1 record heading into the bye week. And if we beat Jacksonville... no, I'm getting ahead of myself.
In other NFL news, the big story is obviously the injury to Tom Brady. No one knows how serious it is yet, and I would be willing to bet it's not season-ending. After all, he walked off the field, he didn't ride off it on a cart. On the other hand, sometimes guys can walk on a blown knee, but running on it or planting with that leg is out of the question. So maybe Brady's season is over. And I'm not saying I hope that's the case. Everyone knows I hate the Patriots, and I used to hate Brady. But now I've developed a great respect for his abilities as a player and a leader, and I must admit that when I see or read interviews with him, he actually sounds like a pretty cool guy. I just wish he played for someone else. So, anyway, the point is I don't wish the guy harm. But, if harm has befallen him regardless of my wishes, there's no denying it makes the AFC East (and the entire conference) much more interesting.
Again, it's only one week, but I feel all right about my Steelers-Cowboys Super Bowl prediction. Pittsburgh utterly dominated Houston today, and the Texans were expected to be a highly competitive team this year. The Cowboys are leading Cleveland 28-7 in the fourth quarter as I write this, and it was nearly 35-7, but Romo ended the last drive by throwing an interception into the end zone. So far, this game has supported my predictions that the Cowboys will be the best team in the NFC (or among the best, anyway), and that Cleveland fans have reason to be worried.
By far the most surprising team of the day-- the Atlanta Falcons. Holy shit. Apparently Michael Turner is really pumped to be out of LT's shadow. 220 yards on the ground in his Atlanta debut. And Matt Ryan played an excellent game in the first test of his rookie season. Maybe it was a fluke. But maybe he's going to be an instant success, reminiscent of Ben Roethlisberger. On the other hand, it is entirely possible that the Lions simply have no defense.
I think the Eagles also turned a lot of heads by winning their opener 38-3. Donovan McNabb threw for an absurd amount of yards, especially considering no one has ever heard of the recievers Philly had on the field today (well, fans of Pac-10 football probably know DeSean Jackson, and the rookie from Cal had an excellent game). If McMazing and Westbrook can stay healthy for once, maybe the Cowboys have a legitimate challenger. Okay, I'm done writing for now. Undoubtedly, there will be a lot more posts about the NFL over the next several months.
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Thanks, ESPN, but that's not actually true.
Reading about the Bills-Seahawks matchup on ESPN.com today, I read that the Seahawks offense "faces a Bills defense that finished 7th in the NFL last season." Actually, we finished 31st on defense (or it may have been 30th. Either way, 7th is not close). Of course, there are varying ways of measuring defense. I'm using total yards per game. You could use points per game, a category in which the Bills D ranked significantly higher, somewhere around 15th if I remember correctly, but still nowhere near 7th. They're also not referring to just passing or just rushing defense, because even though I can't remember what those exact rankings were, I know we weren't getting a sniff of the top 10. Yeah, I have no idea what the guys at ESPN were looking at when they wrote that. But I guess I'm flattered, and maybe now people will fear us more. Turnover ratio? It's possible we could have been ranked highly in that, but I'm sure if they were referring to something that specific they would have said so. No, this had to be just an error.
Friday, September 5, 2008
Jason Peters news!
At least one victory for the Bills this weekend: Left tackle Jason Peters, who represented the AFC in the Pro Bowl last season (if I remember correctly, he was our only Pro Bowl starter. Aaron Schobel went as a reserve, there might have been someone else, too) has reported to the team. Peters had not participated in any team activities this season because he wants to renegotiate his contract, which still has 3 years left on it.
The team refused to negotiate with him until he showed up. Peters still didn't show. The Bills didn't budge. Finally, two days before the season opener, Peters caved. I highly doubt we'll see him in uniform this weekend, since there's no telling what kind of condition he's in, and we installed a new offensive system this year so he's got some things to learn, but the return of Peters is undoubtedly good news. And good news was something we needed after starting linebacker Angelo Crowell went on injured reserve yesterday.
For the record, I think the Bills should pay the man his money. He's one of the best players in the league at one of the most important positions (arguably the second most important after quarterback), yet he's only the third highest paid offensive lineman on his own team (Derrick Dockery and Langston Walker make more).
On the other hand, I think the Bills were completely right to refuse to talk about a new deal until Peters joined the team. Peters should have handled the situation like Lee Evans. Evans also wants a new deal, but he reported on time and worked hard during the preseason, and the Bills have been negotiating with him all along. They have not reached a deal yet, but presumably they have made progress, and more importantly, Evans is still in good standing with the team. Lee Evans always stays classy.
The team refused to negotiate with him until he showed up. Peters still didn't show. The Bills didn't budge. Finally, two days before the season opener, Peters caved. I highly doubt we'll see him in uniform this weekend, since there's no telling what kind of condition he's in, and we installed a new offensive system this year so he's got some things to learn, but the return of Peters is undoubtedly good news. And good news was something we needed after starting linebacker Angelo Crowell went on injured reserve yesterday.
For the record, I think the Bills should pay the man his money. He's one of the best players in the league at one of the most important positions (arguably the second most important after quarterback), yet he's only the third highest paid offensive lineman on his own team (Derrick Dockery and Langston Walker make more).
On the other hand, I think the Bills were completely right to refuse to talk about a new deal until Peters joined the team. Peters should have handled the situation like Lee Evans. Evans also wants a new deal, but he reported on time and worked hard during the preseason, and the Bills have been negotiating with him all along. They have not reached a deal yet, but presumably they have made progress, and more importantly, Evans is still in good standing with the team. Lee Evans always stays classy.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Nick's Mammoth NFL Season Preview... pack a lunch.
NFL 2008 Preview: How ‘Bout Those Giants (Those Cowboys Ain’t Bad, Either)
By Nick “The Prognosticator” Roberts
So I’m sitting here listening to Sarah Palin’s speech at the Republican National Convention, musing that an Alaskan accent sounds very similar to a Canadian accent, which, now that I think about it, is not surprising. I’ve been watching a lot of political coverage lately, and I’ve been putting a lot of thought into the upcoming election (not regarding how to cast my vote, I’ve been an Obama man for quite some time now), but now I turn my attention away from politics and toward something I find much more enjoyable: the NFL.
Seven months after the fact, it still puts a little spring in my step when I think about the Giants spoiling the Patriots’ perfect season. I do not currently own one of those “18-1” tee shirts they sell on bustedtees.com, but I’m thinking I’m going to have to acquire one soon. Before last season, I felt no affection for the New York Giants. In fact, I sort of disliked them, still holding a grudge from Super Bowl XXV and maintaining my usual disdain for teams from New York City (or, to be more accurate, New Jersey). But their upset of the previously unbeaten Patriots was so compelling, and I find the entire New England organization so odious, that all is forgiven. I am now cool with the New York Giants, and I will remain cool with them unless they beat the Bills in a Super Bowl at some point in the future.
I don’t know what it is-- the fact that the Super Bowl has gone my way for two years in a row now, or that I actually feel optimistic about the Bills for the first time in years, or maybe something else-- but I am looking forward to the return of the NFL this fall even more than usual. And even though Rage Pirates has fallen into dormancy and disrepair, I am continuing the tradition of writing an NFL season preview.
No matter who your chosen team is, the brand new season glistens with promise. Obviously some teams have better chances than others, but everyone can dare to dream at this point, because on occasion teams do come out of nowhere to have excellent seasons, even championship seasons. As one memorable Super Bowl ad for the NFL Network put it a couple of years ago, “Tomorrow, we’re all undefeated.” (Note: since it will be Thursday by the time I post this article, it would be more accurate to say that tomorrow, either the Giants or the Redskins will have been defeated. But things will still be looking rosy for the other 31 teams.)
Most of us won’t stay undefeated for long. And that brings us to my predictions. Who will be good, who will be bad, and who stands as the favorite to win it all? Read on, folks. Remember, this is the guy who predicted Giants by 3 in the week leading up to the Super Bowl. I also predicted Patriots over Chargers in the AFC Championship game before the season even started. Of course, in the interest of full disclosure I should also mention that in last season’s preview article, I picked the Saints to win the NFC. Whoops.
Crack a beer, sit back, and prepare to be enlightened. The Prognosticator is about to do what he does best. I’ll go through division by division and pick the winners, followed by my predictions for wild card teams at the conclusion of each conference, and finishing with playoff predictions. Enjoy. It’s going to be a great season.
AFC East:
The Bills, Jets, and Dolphins have all improved their rosters from the 2007 versions, and the Patriots have lost a few key players, but make no mistake-- New England will walk to the division title. I think New England is a much weaker team than they were last season, but I also think they will win 12 or 13 games and be one of the top teams in the conference. It’s nice when you can regress and still be a Super Bowl favorite, isn’t it?
Bill Parcells has the Dolphins moving in the right direction, and I think #1 pick Jake Long and new quarterback Chad Pennington will have an immediate effect on Miami’s offense. However, there were precious few good players on this roster last season, and they lost two of the best-- Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor-- so it looks to be another season well below .500 for the Fish.
The Jets have also improved themselves this offseason, with additions to the offensive line and (obviously) the signing of Brett Favre. Still, for some reason I can’t see the Jets doing better than .500 this season. Bold prediction: Favre will not start every game for the Jets this year. I know he’s the ultimate iron man in the NFL, but he’s been beating the odds, cheating the injury bug for years and years now, and he’s not getting younger. And I feel like it will be similar to Samson cutting his hair-- Favre takes off the Green Bay uniform, and that aura of invincibility goes with it.
Keep in mind the Bills were the second best team in the division last season, and they have only improved since the end of the 2007 campaign. The additions of Marcus Stroud, Spencer Johnson, and Kawika Mitchell should make the defense better, and the offense should improve under new offensive coordinator Turk Schonert and with another year of experience and preparation for quarterback Trent Edwards and running back Marshawn Lynch. The addition of rookie wide receiver James Hardy won’t hurt either, as he finally gives us the big receiver we’ve needed for years, particularly in the red zone. I’m not going to go out a limb and guarantee the Bills will make the playoffs this season (as safety Donte Whitner did over the summer… more than once), but they should be in the hunt well into December. Our soft early schedule should help our playoff chances. I’m betting we can beat the Seahawks in Buffalo on opening day, since Seattle is depleted by injuries and suspensions and they don’t travel well anyway, especially not to the east coast. After the ‘Hawks, three of our next four games are against weak opponents (Oakland, Arizona, St. Louis). The Bills could very well head into the bye week with a 4-1 record. Give a young, talented team that kind of confidence, and who knows what could happen?
AFC North:
I don’t like the Pittsburgh Steelers-- never have, never will. But I am growing to admire them. They focus on the fundamentals-- running the ball and stopping the run-- but they’re not afraid to embrace the flashier aspects of the game, either. They like to rush the passer, and with a deep threat like Santonio Holmes, they can throw the long ball, as well. As much as I hate to admit it, Big Ben Roethlisberger is turning into an elite NFL quarterback. The Steelers had the #1 defense in the league last year, and they will continue to be very good. The offensive line is a concern, but with Big Ben and Fast Willie Parker anchoring the offense, joined by the likes of Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller, and rookie running back Rashard Mendenhall (fumbling issues aside), the Steelers should contend not only for the division title, but for the chance to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
People are all over the Browns this year. They shocked the league last year, when they finished 10-6, sported one of the league’s best offenses, and fell just short of making the playoffs. They added some players in the offseason that should improve the team, but I just have a gut feeling they’re going to be a disappointment. It’s sort of like how the Saints came out of nowhere to have a great year in 2006, then fell on their faces as NFC favorites last year. I think a similar regression is on the horizon for the Browns. Part of the reason is I suspect Derek Anderson was a one-year wonder (expect a QB controversy regarding Anderson and Brady Quinn later this season), and Jamal Lewis can’t have that much left in the tank. I’m betting Cleveland falls back to .500 or worse.
The Bengals are still dysfunctional and lack defense. They won’t be terrible, but they won’t be very good, either. I’m really beginning to suspect Cincy needs a new head coach. Marvin Lewis may be a brilliant defensive mind, but he seems to lack something when it comes to leading an entire team. During his tenure, the Bengals have been defined by an absence of discipline and poor team chemistry.
The Ravens will suck. A lot. Just like last year. And I couldn’t be happier about it. Joe Flacco? Troy Smith? Kyle Boller? Todd Bauman? I don’t think it really matters. Oh, and surprise, surprise, Willis McGahee has a bum knee.
AFC South:
I’m not making any guarantees, but this could be the year the Jaguars finally get by the Colts. Indianapolis is getting older. Peyton Manning showed his first sign of weakness this preseason, when he sat out most of training camp and all the preseason games. He’ll be ready to start the season opener, but you still have to wonder about his health. Speaking of health, it looks like Marvin Harrison is nearing the end. Still, the Colts will be very good. As long as Peyton is healthy, he’s one of the best. They have great receivers, even when Harrison is ailing. Reggie Wayne is one of the best, Anthony Gonzalez is going to be a solid pro, and Dallas Clark is one of the league’s leading tight ends. Oh, and Joseph Addai is an excellent running back. Don’t look now, but you need to worry about Indy’s defense, too. They allowed the fewest points in the NFL last year, and their defense is anchored by safety Bob Sanders, the reigning defensive player of the year. You can pencil the Colts in for the playoffs once again, but it’s hard to say whether they will be the champions of the AFC South, or if they will be playing the unfamiliar role of wild card.
The Jaguars are better than you think. There’s not much flashy about them. They play good defense. They run the ball very well, but their two great running backs-- Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew-- don’t seek a lot of attention on the field, so I think sometimes they don’t get the credit or the time in the spotlight they deserve. The Jags don’t have any big-name receiving threats, but that doesn’t mean they can’t throw the ball. David Garrard, in his first year as a starter in 2007, posted a quarterback rating of over 100. Yeah, I wouldn’t have believed it either. The dude only threw three interceptions all season. Three! That’s one game for a Bills quarterback.
The Tennessee Titans earned a wild card spot last year, and they will be in the hunt this season. If they played in a weaker division, they would be a lock to make the playoffs. But the AFC South rivals the NFC East as the most competitive division in football, so they’ll be fighting an uphill battle. Still, they should contend with the Bills and possibly another team or two for the final AFC spot in the playoffs. If they want to get over the hump, they will need better play from quarterback Vince Young. He is a fantastic athlete and a great leader, but he needs to be more accurate as a passer. Last year he threw almost twice as many interceptions as touchdowns. That just won’t cut it for a playoff-caliber team.
I know it’s a dubious distinction, but the Houston Texans will probably be the best last-place team in the league. This is a team that is moving in the right direction and has finally earned a certain level of respectability, but unfortunately for them, the other teams in their division are just a little better. Look for the Texans to finish around .500, or maybe a little lower, once again.
I was going to go with the upset pick and say the Jags take the division, but why bet against a streak? The South belongs to the Colts until someone proves otherwise.
AFC West:
The Chargers are one of two NFL teams that I would be willing to guarantee win their division (the other being the Patriots). San Diego is primed to be one of the best teams in the AFC, with or without Shawne Merriman. My prediction is that Merriman will play in no more than four games this season. He will either blow out that knee, or he’ll be ineffective and decide that it’s time to have the surgery. There’s not a whole lot to say about the Chargers-- they’re just a good team from top to bottom. They should go deep into the playoffs again this year.
Denver is still the second best team in the division, but mostly by default. The Broncos, who used to run the ball so reliably and always played solid defense, have faltered in those areas recently. The offensive line isn’t what it used to be (and the running backs are nothing special), and the defense was soft last year. I think Jay Cutler is going to be a great quarterback, and he could be on the verge of a breakout season, considering it’s his third year in the system and he is finally 100% healthy, after being properly diagnosed and treated for type I diabetes. But you can’t win on passing alone, and it looks like Denver will be mediocre at best this year.
I think the Raiders will improve over last year, and they could potentially have an exciting offense if Russell and McFadden live up to the hype, but this roster still has a lot of holes to fill, and this organization is right up there with the Bengals in terms of dysfunction. I can’t believe Lane Kiffin still has his job. Al Davis tried to fire him, and Kiffin pretty much just said he wasn’t going anywhere. It’s like he’s squatting in his office.
Oh, the poor Chiefs. Rebuilding season. Still, it should be fun to watch Dwayne Bowe, who was great as a rookie and should be even better this time around, and if nothing else, this season should tell Chiefs fans if Brodie Croyle is really the quarterback of the future or not.
Okay, so to recap, here are the AFC division winners.
East: Patriots
North: Steelers
South: Colts
West: Chargers.
And now my wild card predictions: First wild card spot goes to Jacksonville, who has a real chance to unseat the Colts in the South. And the sixth and final playoff spot goes to… oh man, I don’t know… should I do it… ah, what the hell, it’ll make me feel happy… the BUFFALO BILLS! Yeah, I said it!
NFC East:
Arguably the toughest division in football. The Cowboys, Redskins and Giants all made the playoffs last year, and the Eagles weren’t far behind. Because of the talent and quality in this division, a lot of people are expecting it to be a hard-fought competition for the NFC East crown. Even though I agree the division is very good as a whole, I don’t think it will be all that suspenseful. This is the year of the Cowboys.
Dallas was one of only three elite teams in the NFC last year (Dallas and Green Bay were elite during the regular season, the Giants were elite during the playoffs), and they have gotten stronger while the competition has suffered. Green Bay will still be a good team, but you don’t lose a guy like Brett Favre and just go on like nothing happened. It’s possible the Packers will get off to a slow start, not just because of Aaron Rodgers’s inexperience, but also because the offseason’s turmoil may have lingering effects. The Giants deserve respect, but the losses of Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora and Kawika Mitchell will hurt. The pass rush was one of their greatest assets in their Super Bowl run. Where does that come from now?
Meanwhile, the Cowboys took a great team and made it better, adding Zach Thomas and Adam Jones (who, if he can stay out of trouble, is a great player), and finally dumping Julius Jones and naming Marion Barber the starting running back, which they should have done two years ago. Romo, Owens, and tight end Jason Witten form the core of a devastating passing attack. Some people have expressed worries about Dallas’s #2 receiver position, especially considering some of their receivers got hurt in the preseason, but I don’t think this is a concern. For one thing, Witten is the real #2 receiver. For another, Patrick Crayton is a totally respectable option. I know. He had some good games for my fantasy team last year.
Pencil the Cowboys in as a leading Super Bowl contender.
The Eagles could be better this year than they were last year. Or maybe not. It all depends on if McNabb and Westbrook can stay healthy. All signs point to McNabb being healthier than he’s been in years, but how long will that last? Also, they still haven’t really addressed the problem of not having any good receivers. If rookie DeSean Jackson can make an immediate impact, that would help their chances a great deal.
The Giants are a mystery. I don’t think the Super Bowl victory was a fluke, but I’m also not sure how well they’ll handle the losses to their defense. New York will be in the hunt for the playoffs again, certainly, but they might not make it this time.
The Redskins should bring up the rear. Jim Zorn seems like a smart guy, but you have to figure he’ll be a step down from Gibbs. And I’m still not completely sold on Jason Campbell.
NFC North:
Here’s an idea: let’s not talk about the Lions or the Bears. This is a two-horse race between the Packers and the Vikings, and the teams are quite similar. Both have good running games, good defenses, and young unproven quarterbacks. The largest factor in determining who wins the division will be the play of Aaron Rodgers for the Pack and Tarvaris Jackson for the Vikings. And we won’t have to wait long to see who has the upper hand early in the season. Minnesota and Green Bay open the season against each other in one of kickoff weekend’s most interesting games. And it’s on Monday Night Football. Which is on ESPN. Oh shit, I don’t have cable. Well, looks like I’m going to the bar Monday night. The game is at Lambeau, but I would have to give the Vikings the edge right now. Mostly because Minnesota’s defensive line is ferocious, and they are not going to give Rodgers a chance to settle in and get comfortable. It might be a rough debut for the Pack’s new leader. I just hope the fans don’t boo him. Green Bay, you’re classier than that, right? I know you love Favre, but give the kid a fair chance.
I’m going to say that, despite losing the season opener at home, the Packers will recover and win the division. I think they’re a more well-rounded team than Minnesota, and I think that sooner or later Rodgers will be a much better QB than Jackson.
NFC South:
I believe I said in last year’s season preview that I had no idea what to expect from this division, that I didn’t know a great deal about any of the teams in it, and none of them even seem very interesting to me (with the possible exception of New Orleans, because Reggie Bush and Drew Brees are fun). The same still goes. Tampa won the division last year and made a quick exit from the playoffs. I’m sorry, I owe you better analysis than this, but I just hate the NFC South. I’m now going to predict the order of finish, with minimal justification.
Division champ: Carolina Panthers (people underestimate the importance of Jake Delhomme)
Second: New Orleans Saints (could squeak into the playoffs, defense should be a little better this year)
Third: Tampa Bay (how the mighty have fallen!)
Last: Atlanta Falcons (that Vick hangover hasn’t worn off yet. Matt Ryan, that’s your cue)
NFC West:
The Seahawks were close to being another team that I would guarantee as a division winner, but mostly because the rest of the division is so bad. I really don’t think much of Seattle this year. They should have a good defense, and Matt Hasselbeck is solid when healthy, but what else do they have? Their receivers are some of the worst in the league (and injury prone on top of it), and they dumped Shaun Alexander and replaced him with… Julius Jones. Who was a complete disappointment in Dallas. Still, they should be good enough to beat out the Cards, Rams, and Niners. But hopefully not good enough to beat the Bills this weekend.
The Cardinals are probably the second best team here, but they have the same problems they’ve had for years. They won’t run the ball very well, the defense will be porous, and Leinart and Warner will probably each start about half the games. That is not the continuity you need for a playoff run.
I would like to think Mike Martz will improve San Francisco’s offense, but I’m not sure that’s going to happen. J.T. O’Sullivan is your quarterback? Really? Man, how much must Alex Smith suck? I think their only hope is to get Frank Gore as many touches as possible, use him the same way Martz used Marshall Faulk during the glory days in St. Louis. If they can return Gore to his form of two years ago, their offense might have a prayer. But I still see them winning six games, max.
And the Rams. I’m not really sure what to think of this team. I know they were bad last year, but they were plagued by injuries, and things could improve this season. After a lengthy holdout, they signed Steven Jackson. Bulger and Holt should be a prolific duo once again, and they’ll probably put a lot of points on the board if the injury bug stays away. But it sounds like they still can’t play defense, and considering the events of the past few years, it’s not really reasonable to expect Bulger will be in the starting lineup all season. So it looks like it should be another difficult year for St. Louis, but if everything goes their way, they could be a lot better than people expect.
Okay, that makes our NFC playoff picture look like this.
East: Cowboys
North: Packers
South: Panthers
West: Seahawks
Wild Cards: Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles (sorry, Giants. I feel bad, but I call ‘em as I see ‘em).
All right, now to bust out my crystal ball and create my preseason playoff bracket. This is an utterly ridiculous exercise, football is an unpredictable game, but last year my AFC bracket actually came pretty close. The NFC was a mess.
AFC:
Wild Card Round:
Colts over Bills (hey, at least I predicted we would make the playoffs)
Steelers over Jaguars (Pitt gets revenge for last season)
Divisional Round:
Steelers over Chargers (the San Diego press screams for Norv Turner’s head)
Patriots over Colts (oh man, I am not going to enjoy that game)
AFC Championship:
Steelers over Patriots (I’m doing this partly to be contrarian. Everyone is picking either the Pats, the Colts, or the Chargers to come out of the AFC, and for good reason. Those are excellent teams. But the Steelers are sort of flying under the radar, and they also deserve a lot of respect, so they’re my pick. At least I’ll look smart if it works out)
NFC:
Wild Card Round:
Eagles over Seahawks
Vikings over Panthers
Setting up these dream Divisional Round games:
Cowboys over Eagles
Packers over Vikings (now Lambeau loves Rodgers!)
NFC Championship:
Cowboys over Packers
Super Bowl XLIII:
Cowboys 31, Steelers 20.
That’s it, that’s all, that’s all there is, to quote the Beastie Boys. Hope you liked the article, and enjoy the season.
By Nick “The Prognosticator” Roberts
So I’m sitting here listening to Sarah Palin’s speech at the Republican National Convention, musing that an Alaskan accent sounds very similar to a Canadian accent, which, now that I think about it, is not surprising. I’ve been watching a lot of political coverage lately, and I’ve been putting a lot of thought into the upcoming election (not regarding how to cast my vote, I’ve been an Obama man for quite some time now), but now I turn my attention away from politics and toward something I find much more enjoyable: the NFL.
Seven months after the fact, it still puts a little spring in my step when I think about the Giants spoiling the Patriots’ perfect season. I do not currently own one of those “18-1” tee shirts they sell on bustedtees.com, but I’m thinking I’m going to have to acquire one soon. Before last season, I felt no affection for the New York Giants. In fact, I sort of disliked them, still holding a grudge from Super Bowl XXV and maintaining my usual disdain for teams from New York City (or, to be more accurate, New Jersey). But their upset of the previously unbeaten Patriots was so compelling, and I find the entire New England organization so odious, that all is forgiven. I am now cool with the New York Giants, and I will remain cool with them unless they beat the Bills in a Super Bowl at some point in the future.
I don’t know what it is-- the fact that the Super Bowl has gone my way for two years in a row now, or that I actually feel optimistic about the Bills for the first time in years, or maybe something else-- but I am looking forward to the return of the NFL this fall even more than usual. And even though Rage Pirates has fallen into dormancy and disrepair, I am continuing the tradition of writing an NFL season preview.
No matter who your chosen team is, the brand new season glistens with promise. Obviously some teams have better chances than others, but everyone can dare to dream at this point, because on occasion teams do come out of nowhere to have excellent seasons, even championship seasons. As one memorable Super Bowl ad for the NFL Network put it a couple of years ago, “Tomorrow, we’re all undefeated.” (Note: since it will be Thursday by the time I post this article, it would be more accurate to say that tomorrow, either the Giants or the Redskins will have been defeated. But things will still be looking rosy for the other 31 teams.)
Most of us won’t stay undefeated for long. And that brings us to my predictions. Who will be good, who will be bad, and who stands as the favorite to win it all? Read on, folks. Remember, this is the guy who predicted Giants by 3 in the week leading up to the Super Bowl. I also predicted Patriots over Chargers in the AFC Championship game before the season even started. Of course, in the interest of full disclosure I should also mention that in last season’s preview article, I picked the Saints to win the NFC. Whoops.
Crack a beer, sit back, and prepare to be enlightened. The Prognosticator is about to do what he does best. I’ll go through division by division and pick the winners, followed by my predictions for wild card teams at the conclusion of each conference, and finishing with playoff predictions. Enjoy. It’s going to be a great season.
AFC East:
The Bills, Jets, and Dolphins have all improved their rosters from the 2007 versions, and the Patriots have lost a few key players, but make no mistake-- New England will walk to the division title. I think New England is a much weaker team than they were last season, but I also think they will win 12 or 13 games and be one of the top teams in the conference. It’s nice when you can regress and still be a Super Bowl favorite, isn’t it?
Bill Parcells has the Dolphins moving in the right direction, and I think #1 pick Jake Long and new quarterback Chad Pennington will have an immediate effect on Miami’s offense. However, there were precious few good players on this roster last season, and they lost two of the best-- Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor-- so it looks to be another season well below .500 for the Fish.
The Jets have also improved themselves this offseason, with additions to the offensive line and (obviously) the signing of Brett Favre. Still, for some reason I can’t see the Jets doing better than .500 this season. Bold prediction: Favre will not start every game for the Jets this year. I know he’s the ultimate iron man in the NFL, but he’s been beating the odds, cheating the injury bug for years and years now, and he’s not getting younger. And I feel like it will be similar to Samson cutting his hair-- Favre takes off the Green Bay uniform, and that aura of invincibility goes with it.
Keep in mind the Bills were the second best team in the division last season, and they have only improved since the end of the 2007 campaign. The additions of Marcus Stroud, Spencer Johnson, and Kawika Mitchell should make the defense better, and the offense should improve under new offensive coordinator Turk Schonert and with another year of experience and preparation for quarterback Trent Edwards and running back Marshawn Lynch. The addition of rookie wide receiver James Hardy won’t hurt either, as he finally gives us the big receiver we’ve needed for years, particularly in the red zone. I’m not going to go out a limb and guarantee the Bills will make the playoffs this season (as safety Donte Whitner did over the summer… more than once), but they should be in the hunt well into December. Our soft early schedule should help our playoff chances. I’m betting we can beat the Seahawks in Buffalo on opening day, since Seattle is depleted by injuries and suspensions and they don’t travel well anyway, especially not to the east coast. After the ‘Hawks, three of our next four games are against weak opponents (Oakland, Arizona, St. Louis). The Bills could very well head into the bye week with a 4-1 record. Give a young, talented team that kind of confidence, and who knows what could happen?
AFC North:
I don’t like the Pittsburgh Steelers-- never have, never will. But I am growing to admire them. They focus on the fundamentals-- running the ball and stopping the run-- but they’re not afraid to embrace the flashier aspects of the game, either. They like to rush the passer, and with a deep threat like Santonio Holmes, they can throw the long ball, as well. As much as I hate to admit it, Big Ben Roethlisberger is turning into an elite NFL quarterback. The Steelers had the #1 defense in the league last year, and they will continue to be very good. The offensive line is a concern, but with Big Ben and Fast Willie Parker anchoring the offense, joined by the likes of Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller, and rookie running back Rashard Mendenhall (fumbling issues aside), the Steelers should contend not only for the division title, but for the chance to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
People are all over the Browns this year. They shocked the league last year, when they finished 10-6, sported one of the league’s best offenses, and fell just short of making the playoffs. They added some players in the offseason that should improve the team, but I just have a gut feeling they’re going to be a disappointment. It’s sort of like how the Saints came out of nowhere to have a great year in 2006, then fell on their faces as NFC favorites last year. I think a similar regression is on the horizon for the Browns. Part of the reason is I suspect Derek Anderson was a one-year wonder (expect a QB controversy regarding Anderson and Brady Quinn later this season), and Jamal Lewis can’t have that much left in the tank. I’m betting Cleveland falls back to .500 or worse.
The Bengals are still dysfunctional and lack defense. They won’t be terrible, but they won’t be very good, either. I’m really beginning to suspect Cincy needs a new head coach. Marvin Lewis may be a brilliant defensive mind, but he seems to lack something when it comes to leading an entire team. During his tenure, the Bengals have been defined by an absence of discipline and poor team chemistry.
The Ravens will suck. A lot. Just like last year. And I couldn’t be happier about it. Joe Flacco? Troy Smith? Kyle Boller? Todd Bauman? I don’t think it really matters. Oh, and surprise, surprise, Willis McGahee has a bum knee.
AFC South:
I’m not making any guarantees, but this could be the year the Jaguars finally get by the Colts. Indianapolis is getting older. Peyton Manning showed his first sign of weakness this preseason, when he sat out most of training camp and all the preseason games. He’ll be ready to start the season opener, but you still have to wonder about his health. Speaking of health, it looks like Marvin Harrison is nearing the end. Still, the Colts will be very good. As long as Peyton is healthy, he’s one of the best. They have great receivers, even when Harrison is ailing. Reggie Wayne is one of the best, Anthony Gonzalez is going to be a solid pro, and Dallas Clark is one of the league’s leading tight ends. Oh, and Joseph Addai is an excellent running back. Don’t look now, but you need to worry about Indy’s defense, too. They allowed the fewest points in the NFL last year, and their defense is anchored by safety Bob Sanders, the reigning defensive player of the year. You can pencil the Colts in for the playoffs once again, but it’s hard to say whether they will be the champions of the AFC South, or if they will be playing the unfamiliar role of wild card.
The Jaguars are better than you think. There’s not much flashy about them. They play good defense. They run the ball very well, but their two great running backs-- Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew-- don’t seek a lot of attention on the field, so I think sometimes they don’t get the credit or the time in the spotlight they deserve. The Jags don’t have any big-name receiving threats, but that doesn’t mean they can’t throw the ball. David Garrard, in his first year as a starter in 2007, posted a quarterback rating of over 100. Yeah, I wouldn’t have believed it either. The dude only threw three interceptions all season. Three! That’s one game for a Bills quarterback.
The Tennessee Titans earned a wild card spot last year, and they will be in the hunt this season. If they played in a weaker division, they would be a lock to make the playoffs. But the AFC South rivals the NFC East as the most competitive division in football, so they’ll be fighting an uphill battle. Still, they should contend with the Bills and possibly another team or two for the final AFC spot in the playoffs. If they want to get over the hump, they will need better play from quarterback Vince Young. He is a fantastic athlete and a great leader, but he needs to be more accurate as a passer. Last year he threw almost twice as many interceptions as touchdowns. That just won’t cut it for a playoff-caliber team.
I know it’s a dubious distinction, but the Houston Texans will probably be the best last-place team in the league. This is a team that is moving in the right direction and has finally earned a certain level of respectability, but unfortunately for them, the other teams in their division are just a little better. Look for the Texans to finish around .500, or maybe a little lower, once again.
I was going to go with the upset pick and say the Jags take the division, but why bet against a streak? The South belongs to the Colts until someone proves otherwise.
AFC West:
The Chargers are one of two NFL teams that I would be willing to guarantee win their division (the other being the Patriots). San Diego is primed to be one of the best teams in the AFC, with or without Shawne Merriman. My prediction is that Merriman will play in no more than four games this season. He will either blow out that knee, or he’ll be ineffective and decide that it’s time to have the surgery. There’s not a whole lot to say about the Chargers-- they’re just a good team from top to bottom. They should go deep into the playoffs again this year.
Denver is still the second best team in the division, but mostly by default. The Broncos, who used to run the ball so reliably and always played solid defense, have faltered in those areas recently. The offensive line isn’t what it used to be (and the running backs are nothing special), and the defense was soft last year. I think Jay Cutler is going to be a great quarterback, and he could be on the verge of a breakout season, considering it’s his third year in the system and he is finally 100% healthy, after being properly diagnosed and treated for type I diabetes. But you can’t win on passing alone, and it looks like Denver will be mediocre at best this year.
I think the Raiders will improve over last year, and they could potentially have an exciting offense if Russell and McFadden live up to the hype, but this roster still has a lot of holes to fill, and this organization is right up there with the Bengals in terms of dysfunction. I can’t believe Lane Kiffin still has his job. Al Davis tried to fire him, and Kiffin pretty much just said he wasn’t going anywhere. It’s like he’s squatting in his office.
Oh, the poor Chiefs. Rebuilding season. Still, it should be fun to watch Dwayne Bowe, who was great as a rookie and should be even better this time around, and if nothing else, this season should tell Chiefs fans if Brodie Croyle is really the quarterback of the future or not.
Okay, so to recap, here are the AFC division winners.
East: Patriots
North: Steelers
South: Colts
West: Chargers.
And now my wild card predictions: First wild card spot goes to Jacksonville, who has a real chance to unseat the Colts in the South. And the sixth and final playoff spot goes to… oh man, I don’t know… should I do it… ah, what the hell, it’ll make me feel happy… the BUFFALO BILLS! Yeah, I said it!
NFC East:
Arguably the toughest division in football. The Cowboys, Redskins and Giants all made the playoffs last year, and the Eagles weren’t far behind. Because of the talent and quality in this division, a lot of people are expecting it to be a hard-fought competition for the NFC East crown. Even though I agree the division is very good as a whole, I don’t think it will be all that suspenseful. This is the year of the Cowboys.
Dallas was one of only three elite teams in the NFC last year (Dallas and Green Bay were elite during the regular season, the Giants were elite during the playoffs), and they have gotten stronger while the competition has suffered. Green Bay will still be a good team, but you don’t lose a guy like Brett Favre and just go on like nothing happened. It’s possible the Packers will get off to a slow start, not just because of Aaron Rodgers’s inexperience, but also because the offseason’s turmoil may have lingering effects. The Giants deserve respect, but the losses of Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora and Kawika Mitchell will hurt. The pass rush was one of their greatest assets in their Super Bowl run. Where does that come from now?
Meanwhile, the Cowboys took a great team and made it better, adding Zach Thomas and Adam Jones (who, if he can stay out of trouble, is a great player), and finally dumping Julius Jones and naming Marion Barber the starting running back, which they should have done two years ago. Romo, Owens, and tight end Jason Witten form the core of a devastating passing attack. Some people have expressed worries about Dallas’s #2 receiver position, especially considering some of their receivers got hurt in the preseason, but I don’t think this is a concern. For one thing, Witten is the real #2 receiver. For another, Patrick Crayton is a totally respectable option. I know. He had some good games for my fantasy team last year.
Pencil the Cowboys in as a leading Super Bowl contender.
The Eagles could be better this year than they were last year. Or maybe not. It all depends on if McNabb and Westbrook can stay healthy. All signs point to McNabb being healthier than he’s been in years, but how long will that last? Also, they still haven’t really addressed the problem of not having any good receivers. If rookie DeSean Jackson can make an immediate impact, that would help their chances a great deal.
The Giants are a mystery. I don’t think the Super Bowl victory was a fluke, but I’m also not sure how well they’ll handle the losses to their defense. New York will be in the hunt for the playoffs again, certainly, but they might not make it this time.
The Redskins should bring up the rear. Jim Zorn seems like a smart guy, but you have to figure he’ll be a step down from Gibbs. And I’m still not completely sold on Jason Campbell.
NFC North:
Here’s an idea: let’s not talk about the Lions or the Bears. This is a two-horse race between the Packers and the Vikings, and the teams are quite similar. Both have good running games, good defenses, and young unproven quarterbacks. The largest factor in determining who wins the division will be the play of Aaron Rodgers for the Pack and Tarvaris Jackson for the Vikings. And we won’t have to wait long to see who has the upper hand early in the season. Minnesota and Green Bay open the season against each other in one of kickoff weekend’s most interesting games. And it’s on Monday Night Football. Which is on ESPN. Oh shit, I don’t have cable. Well, looks like I’m going to the bar Monday night. The game is at Lambeau, but I would have to give the Vikings the edge right now. Mostly because Minnesota’s defensive line is ferocious, and they are not going to give Rodgers a chance to settle in and get comfortable. It might be a rough debut for the Pack’s new leader. I just hope the fans don’t boo him. Green Bay, you’re classier than that, right? I know you love Favre, but give the kid a fair chance.
I’m going to say that, despite losing the season opener at home, the Packers will recover and win the division. I think they’re a more well-rounded team than Minnesota, and I think that sooner or later Rodgers will be a much better QB than Jackson.
NFC South:
I believe I said in last year’s season preview that I had no idea what to expect from this division, that I didn’t know a great deal about any of the teams in it, and none of them even seem very interesting to me (with the possible exception of New Orleans, because Reggie Bush and Drew Brees are fun). The same still goes. Tampa won the division last year and made a quick exit from the playoffs. I’m sorry, I owe you better analysis than this, but I just hate the NFC South. I’m now going to predict the order of finish, with minimal justification.
Division champ: Carolina Panthers (people underestimate the importance of Jake Delhomme)
Second: New Orleans Saints (could squeak into the playoffs, defense should be a little better this year)
Third: Tampa Bay (how the mighty have fallen!)
Last: Atlanta Falcons (that Vick hangover hasn’t worn off yet. Matt Ryan, that’s your cue)
NFC West:
The Seahawks were close to being another team that I would guarantee as a division winner, but mostly because the rest of the division is so bad. I really don’t think much of Seattle this year. They should have a good defense, and Matt Hasselbeck is solid when healthy, but what else do they have? Their receivers are some of the worst in the league (and injury prone on top of it), and they dumped Shaun Alexander and replaced him with… Julius Jones. Who was a complete disappointment in Dallas. Still, they should be good enough to beat out the Cards, Rams, and Niners. But hopefully not good enough to beat the Bills this weekend.
The Cardinals are probably the second best team here, but they have the same problems they’ve had for years. They won’t run the ball very well, the defense will be porous, and Leinart and Warner will probably each start about half the games. That is not the continuity you need for a playoff run.
I would like to think Mike Martz will improve San Francisco’s offense, but I’m not sure that’s going to happen. J.T. O’Sullivan is your quarterback? Really? Man, how much must Alex Smith suck? I think their only hope is to get Frank Gore as many touches as possible, use him the same way Martz used Marshall Faulk during the glory days in St. Louis. If they can return Gore to his form of two years ago, their offense might have a prayer. But I still see them winning six games, max.
And the Rams. I’m not really sure what to think of this team. I know they were bad last year, but they were plagued by injuries, and things could improve this season. After a lengthy holdout, they signed Steven Jackson. Bulger and Holt should be a prolific duo once again, and they’ll probably put a lot of points on the board if the injury bug stays away. But it sounds like they still can’t play defense, and considering the events of the past few years, it’s not really reasonable to expect Bulger will be in the starting lineup all season. So it looks like it should be another difficult year for St. Louis, but if everything goes their way, they could be a lot better than people expect.
Okay, that makes our NFC playoff picture look like this.
East: Cowboys
North: Packers
South: Panthers
West: Seahawks
Wild Cards: Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles (sorry, Giants. I feel bad, but I call ‘em as I see ‘em).
All right, now to bust out my crystal ball and create my preseason playoff bracket. This is an utterly ridiculous exercise, football is an unpredictable game, but last year my AFC bracket actually came pretty close. The NFC was a mess.
AFC:
Wild Card Round:
Colts over Bills (hey, at least I predicted we would make the playoffs)
Steelers over Jaguars (Pitt gets revenge for last season)
Divisional Round:
Steelers over Chargers (the San Diego press screams for Norv Turner’s head)
Patriots over Colts (oh man, I am not going to enjoy that game)
AFC Championship:
Steelers over Patriots (I’m doing this partly to be contrarian. Everyone is picking either the Pats, the Colts, or the Chargers to come out of the AFC, and for good reason. Those are excellent teams. But the Steelers are sort of flying under the radar, and they also deserve a lot of respect, so they’re my pick. At least I’ll look smart if it works out)
NFC:
Wild Card Round:
Eagles over Seahawks
Vikings over Panthers
Setting up these dream Divisional Round games:
Cowboys over Eagles
Packers over Vikings (now Lambeau loves Rodgers!)
NFC Championship:
Cowboys over Packers
Super Bowl XLIII:
Cowboys 31, Steelers 20.
That’s it, that’s all, that’s all there is, to quote the Beastie Boys. Hope you liked the article, and enjoy the season.
Monday, September 1, 2008
On Drinking Alone
Hey gang,
I know I haven't posted in a few days. I've been really busy, and I continue to be really busy. This week is going to be a bitch, and I'd be kidding myself if I thought there was going to be such a thing as an easy week during this semester, but I'm hoping that once I make it to this Friday, things might calm down a bit. No matter what, I'm looking forward to this weekend because the NFL returns. I intend to post a preview article (probably a short one, by my standards) on the blog some time before the Thursday night game kicks off, but I can't make any promises, considering my schedule.
I just wanted to post this article about drinking alone that I read on the web site for Modern Drunkard Magazine (which is a pretty hilarious publication-- I recommend surfing around on the site and reading some other stuff. I don't even drink that much, but I love reading these articles). I have long been an advocate of solitary drinking. There's such a negative stigma attached to it-- people think that if you drink alone it means you're an alcoholic, or at least that you're depressed and sort of pathetic. I disagree. So does Frank Rich, founder of the Modern Drunkard and author of this article. He makes a lot of the same points I would make on the subject, mainly that it can be an extremely relaxing experience (infinitely more peaceful than, say, drinking at a bar) and that it's a good way to get in touch with yourself. Obviously, I would not recommend getting hammered alone (or with other people, for that matter) on an everyday basis, but every once in a while it's a good way to unwind.
-Nick
I know I haven't posted in a few days. I've been really busy, and I continue to be really busy. This week is going to be a bitch, and I'd be kidding myself if I thought there was going to be such a thing as an easy week during this semester, but I'm hoping that once I make it to this Friday, things might calm down a bit. No matter what, I'm looking forward to this weekend because the NFL returns. I intend to post a preview article (probably a short one, by my standards) on the blog some time before the Thursday night game kicks off, but I can't make any promises, considering my schedule.
I just wanted to post this article about drinking alone that I read on the web site for Modern Drunkard Magazine (which is a pretty hilarious publication-- I recommend surfing around on the site and reading some other stuff. I don't even drink that much, but I love reading these articles). I have long been an advocate of solitary drinking. There's such a negative stigma attached to it-- people think that if you drink alone it means you're an alcoholic, or at least that you're depressed and sort of pathetic. I disagree. So does Frank Rich, founder of the Modern Drunkard and author of this article. He makes a lot of the same points I would make on the subject, mainly that it can be an extremely relaxing experience (infinitely more peaceful than, say, drinking at a bar) and that it's a good way to get in touch with yourself. Obviously, I would not recommend getting hammered alone (or with other people, for that matter) on an everyday basis, but every once in a while it's a good way to unwind.
-Nick
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