Tuesday, September 23, 2008

We're #6!

So on ESPN.com's weekly NFL power rankings, the Bills come in at #6 after improving to 3-0 (we were 10th last week). Obviously, this is not unexpected, as we are one of only 6 teams still unbeaten in the league. They didn't simply rank all the unbeatens at the top of the charts. The Eagles and Steelers are in front of us, despite having one loss apiece, and the undefeated Broncos and Ravens (at 2-0) are behind us. So, anyway, the Bills being ranked #6 is about what I would have expected if I had stopped to think about it. But it was still stunning for me to click on the rankings and see the Bills so close to the top of the page. I can't remember the last time we were considered one of the NFL's 6 best teams. Of course, this really has no meaning since it's just one web site's opinion, and the best teams in the league after 3 games won't necessarily be the best teams after 16 games. My mantra right now is "All this means is we can't do worse than 3-13." Hopefully, after we play the Rams next week I'll be saying we can't do worse than 4-12.

Some fans were probably discouraged by the way we struggled against the Raiders last week but I actually found the win encouraging. It's not as if we were revealed to be a mediocre team that lucked out in the first two weeks. We are a legitimately good team that simply played poorly and made a lot of mistakes for three quarters on Sunday. But when it mattered most we asserted ourselves, took control of the game, and made a thrilling comeback. That's the kind of thing good teams do. Everybody makes mistakes, everybody plays a bad game once in a while, but the good teams are the ones who let their bad games hurt them the least. And the Bills managed to escape a bad game with a win on Sunday. I'll take it. I think what happened was we had a letdown game after being really pumped to open the season at home against Seattle, and then getting really pumped up again in Week 2 to go on the road against the Jags, who were expected to be a very good team this year and who put a beating on us last season. Suddenly, we found ourselves making headlines around the league and everyone accepted that we would blow Oakland out of the water (well, not me. Remember, in my picks article I predicted the Bills would make us sweat. I also almost predicted the Dolphins would beat the Patriots... but then I wussed out). We started drinking our own Kool-Aid, thought that all we had to do was show up and we would beat the Raiders, and they nearly caught us sleeping. Nearly.

So I didn't take the loss too hard. A couple things that made it easier to take were that the defending champion Giants, who looked as good as anyone through the first two weeks, had to go to overtime to beat the lowly Bengals. And the mighty Patriots, the proud owners of last year's 16-0 regular season, were blown out by the Dolphins, who won all of 1 game in 2007. So it's safe to say there were some good teams out there who had worse days than the Bills on Sunday.

Hopefully, our young team will have learned its lesson that you can't just show up and win. You have to play hard every game, regardless of the opponent. And I'm hoping that means we'll come out with intensity and put a hurting on the Rams this weekend.

Last season, the Bills finished 30th in total offense and 31st in total defense. This year, we are 15th in total offense and 5th in total defense. Sure, the offense is still middle of the road, but considering we moved up 15 spots, I'll take it. And the improvement by the defense is mind-blowing. In the past two weeks, we've held two pretty damn good rushing teams under 100 yards on the ground. The Raiders gained over 300 rushing yards against the Chiefs, 98 against the Bills. Perhaps the most significant statistic about this year's team is 3rd down defense. Last year, we were terrible on 3rd downs on both sides of the ball. This year? #1 in third down defense, allowing a conversion rate of only 18%. On offense, we're 15th in 3rd down conversion percentage. Again, middle of the pack, but a lot better than last year.

Aside from the defense, the other reason to be confident in the Bills is Trent Edwards. This guy is developing into a good quarterback. He's exceeding all my expectations I had for him this season. He's no longer just a game manager, a guy who's goal is to not lose the game for his team. Trent is a winner, he's put his team on his back the past two weeks and come out with two big victories. When he drops back in the pocket, I feel a confidence I haven't felt in a Bills quarterback in quite a long time.

So we've got a vastly improved defense, a good quarterback who's only going to get better, a respectable offensive line, stellar special teams, a strong young running back, and a receiving corps that looks better than anyone thought it would. (I don't know why, maybe it's Turk Schonert's influence, but Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish suddenly seem better than they've ever been before). That sounds like the composition of a pretty good team, doesn't it?

Then again, we could still go 3-13. Just remind yourself of that before you start dreaming of a Bills-Cowboys three-match.

1 comment:

Nick Roberts said...

Update: The Bills are ranked #4 on NFL.com, behind only the Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles, making Buffalo the top-ranked team in the AFC. Of course, it's worth noting that the NFL.com rankings are compiled by Vic Carucci, who is now a senior columnist and editor for the site, but who used to be one of the head sports writers at the Buffalo News. Since he left to write about the NFL on a national level, I've noticed that Vic writes more stories about the Bills than he does about a lot of other teams. I think he's still a homer at heart.

For the record, I would rank Buffalo #2 in the AFC behind Tennessee at this point. The Titans have been very, very impressive, and Vince Young getting hurt in the opener was probably the best thing that could have happened to them. Their offense is just better with Kerry Collins right now. Improbably, the Titans have opened up a two-game lead in their division only three weeks into the season. The way they're playing, the Colts and Jags will be hard-pressed to catch up. The Titans may take the AFC South wire to wire.