Nick's Mammoth NFL Season Preview... pack a lunch.

NFL 2008 Preview: How ‘Bout Those Giants (Those Cowboys Ain’t Bad, Either)
By Nick “The Prognosticator” Roberts

So I’m sitting here listening to Sarah Palin’s speech at the Republican National Convention, musing that an Alaskan accent sounds very similar to a Canadian accent, which, now that I think about it, is not surprising. I’ve been watching a lot of political coverage lately, and I’ve been putting a lot of thought into the upcoming election (not regarding how to cast my vote, I’ve been an Obama man for quite some time now), but now I turn my attention away from politics and toward something I find much more enjoyable: the NFL.

Seven months after the fact, it still puts a little spring in my step when I think about the Giants spoiling the Patriots’ perfect season. I do not currently own one of those “18-1” tee shirts they sell on bustedtees.com, but I’m thinking I’m going to have to acquire one soon. Before last season, I felt no affection for the New York Giants. In fact, I sort of disliked them, still holding a grudge from Super Bowl XXV and maintaining my usual disdain for teams from New York City (or, to be more accurate, New Jersey). But their upset of the previously unbeaten Patriots was so compelling, and I find the entire New England organization so odious, that all is forgiven. I am now cool with the New York Giants, and I will remain cool with them unless they beat the Bills in a Super Bowl at some point in the future.

I don’t know what it is-- the fact that the Super Bowl has gone my way for two years in a row now, or that I actually feel optimistic about the Bills for the first time in years, or maybe something else-- but I am looking forward to the return of the NFL this fall even more than usual. And even though Rage Pirates has fallen into dormancy and disrepair, I am continuing the tradition of writing an NFL season preview.

No matter who your chosen team is, the brand new season glistens with promise. Obviously some teams have better chances than others, but everyone can dare to dream at this point, because on occasion teams do come out of nowhere to have excellent seasons, even championship seasons. As one memorable Super Bowl ad for the NFL Network put it a couple of years ago, “Tomorrow, we’re all undefeated.” (Note: since it will be Thursday by the time I post this article, it would be more accurate to say that tomorrow, either the Giants or the Redskins will have been defeated. But things will still be looking rosy for the other 31 teams.)

Most of us won’t stay undefeated for long. And that brings us to my predictions. Who will be good, who will be bad, and who stands as the favorite to win it all? Read on, folks. Remember, this is the guy who predicted Giants by 3 in the week leading up to the Super Bowl. I also predicted Patriots over Chargers in the AFC Championship game before the season even started. Of course, in the interest of full disclosure I should also mention that in last season’s preview article, I picked the Saints to win the NFC. Whoops.

Crack a beer, sit back, and prepare to be enlightened. The Prognosticator is about to do what he does best. I’ll go through division by division and pick the winners, followed by my predictions for wild card teams at the conclusion of each conference, and finishing with playoff predictions. Enjoy. It’s going to be a great season.

AFC East:

The Bills, Jets, and Dolphins have all improved their rosters from the 2007 versions, and the Patriots have lost a few key players, but make no mistake-- New England will walk to the division title. I think New England is a much weaker team than they were last season, but I also think they will win 12 or 13 games and be one of the top teams in the conference. It’s nice when you can regress and still be a Super Bowl favorite, isn’t it?

Bill Parcells has the Dolphins moving in the right direction, and I think #1 pick Jake Long and new quarterback Chad Pennington will have an immediate effect on Miami’s offense. However, there were precious few good players on this roster last season, and they lost two of the best-- Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor-- so it looks to be another season well below .500 for the Fish.

The Jets have also improved themselves this offseason, with additions to the offensive line and (obviously) the signing of Brett Favre. Still, for some reason I can’t see the Jets doing better than .500 this season. Bold prediction: Favre will not start every game for the Jets this year. I know he’s the ultimate iron man in the NFL, but he’s been beating the odds, cheating the injury bug for years and years now, and he’s not getting younger. And I feel like it will be similar to Samson cutting his hair-- Favre takes off the Green Bay uniform, and that aura of invincibility goes with it.

Keep in mind the Bills were the second best team in the division last season, and they have only improved since the end of the 2007 campaign. The additions of Marcus Stroud, Spencer Johnson, and Kawika Mitchell should make the defense better, and the offense should improve under new offensive coordinator Turk Schonert and with another year of experience and preparation for quarterback Trent Edwards and running back Marshawn Lynch. The addition of rookie wide receiver James Hardy won’t hurt either, as he finally gives us the big receiver we’ve needed for years, particularly in the red zone. I’m not going to go out a limb and guarantee the Bills will make the playoffs this season (as safety Donte Whitner did over the summer… more than once), but they should be in the hunt well into December. Our soft early schedule should help our playoff chances. I’m betting we can beat the Seahawks in Buffalo on opening day, since Seattle is depleted by injuries and suspensions and they don’t travel well anyway, especially not to the east coast. After the ‘Hawks, three of our next four games are against weak opponents (Oakland, Arizona, St. Louis). The Bills could very well head into the bye week with a 4-1 record. Give a young, talented team that kind of confidence, and who knows what could happen?

AFC North:

I don’t like the Pittsburgh Steelers-- never have, never will. But I am growing to admire them. They focus on the fundamentals-- running the ball and stopping the run-- but they’re not afraid to embrace the flashier aspects of the game, either. They like to rush the passer, and with a deep threat like Santonio Holmes, they can throw the long ball, as well. As much as I hate to admit it, Big Ben Roethlisberger is turning into an elite NFL quarterback. The Steelers had the #1 defense in the league last year, and they will continue to be very good. The offensive line is a concern, but with Big Ben and Fast Willie Parker anchoring the offense, joined by the likes of Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller, and rookie running back Rashard Mendenhall (fumbling issues aside), the Steelers should contend not only for the division title, but for the chance to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

People are all over the Browns this year. They shocked the league last year, when they finished 10-6, sported one of the league’s best offenses, and fell just short of making the playoffs. They added some players in the offseason that should improve the team, but I just have a gut feeling they’re going to be a disappointment. It’s sort of like how the Saints came out of nowhere to have a great year in 2006, then fell on their faces as NFC favorites last year. I think a similar regression is on the horizon for the Browns. Part of the reason is I suspect Derek Anderson was a one-year wonder (expect a QB controversy regarding Anderson and Brady Quinn later this season), and Jamal Lewis can’t have that much left in the tank. I’m betting Cleveland falls back to .500 or worse.

The Bengals are still dysfunctional and lack defense. They won’t be terrible, but they won’t be very good, either. I’m really beginning to suspect Cincy needs a new head coach. Marvin Lewis may be a brilliant defensive mind, but he seems to lack something when it comes to leading an entire team. During his tenure, the Bengals have been defined by an absence of discipline and poor team chemistry.

The Ravens will suck. A lot. Just like last year. And I couldn’t be happier about it. Joe Flacco? Troy Smith? Kyle Boller? Todd Bauman? I don’t think it really matters. Oh, and surprise, surprise, Willis McGahee has a bum knee.

AFC South:

I’m not making any guarantees, but this could be the year the Jaguars finally get by the Colts. Indianapolis is getting older. Peyton Manning showed his first sign of weakness this preseason, when he sat out most of training camp and all the preseason games. He’ll be ready to start the season opener, but you still have to wonder about his health. Speaking of health, it looks like Marvin Harrison is nearing the end. Still, the Colts will be very good. As long as Peyton is healthy, he’s one of the best. They have great receivers, even when Harrison is ailing. Reggie Wayne is one of the best, Anthony Gonzalez is going to be a solid pro, and Dallas Clark is one of the league’s leading tight ends. Oh, and Joseph Addai is an excellent running back. Don’t look now, but you need to worry about Indy’s defense, too. They allowed the fewest points in the NFL last year, and their defense is anchored by safety Bob Sanders, the reigning defensive player of the year. You can pencil the Colts in for the playoffs once again, but it’s hard to say whether they will be the champions of the AFC South, or if they will be playing the unfamiliar role of wild card.

The Jaguars are better than you think. There’s not much flashy about them. They play good defense. They run the ball very well, but their two great running backs-- Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew-- don’t seek a lot of attention on the field, so I think sometimes they don’t get the credit or the time in the spotlight they deserve. The Jags don’t have any big-name receiving threats, but that doesn’t mean they can’t throw the ball. David Garrard, in his first year as a starter in 2007, posted a quarterback rating of over 100. Yeah, I wouldn’t have believed it either. The dude only threw three interceptions all season. Three! That’s one game for a Bills quarterback.

The Tennessee Titans earned a wild card spot last year, and they will be in the hunt this season. If they played in a weaker division, they would be a lock to make the playoffs. But the AFC South rivals the NFC East as the most competitive division in football, so they’ll be fighting an uphill battle. Still, they should contend with the Bills and possibly another team or two for the final AFC spot in the playoffs. If they want to get over the hump, they will need better play from quarterback Vince Young. He is a fantastic athlete and a great leader, but he needs to be more accurate as a passer. Last year he threw almost twice as many interceptions as touchdowns. That just won’t cut it for a playoff-caliber team.

I know it’s a dubious distinction, but the Houston Texans will probably be the best last-place team in the league. This is a team that is moving in the right direction and has finally earned a certain level of respectability, but unfortunately for them, the other teams in their division are just a little better. Look for the Texans to finish around .500, or maybe a little lower, once again.
I was going to go with the upset pick and say the Jags take the division, but why bet against a streak? The South belongs to the Colts until someone proves otherwise.

AFC West:

The Chargers are one of two NFL teams that I would be willing to guarantee win their division (the other being the Patriots). San Diego is primed to be one of the best teams in the AFC, with or without Shawne Merriman. My prediction is that Merriman will play in no more than four games this season. He will either blow out that knee, or he’ll be ineffective and decide that it’s time to have the surgery. There’s not a whole lot to say about the Chargers-- they’re just a good team from top to bottom. They should go deep into the playoffs again this year.

Denver is still the second best team in the division, but mostly by default. The Broncos, who used to run the ball so reliably and always played solid defense, have faltered in those areas recently. The offensive line isn’t what it used to be (and the running backs are nothing special), and the defense was soft last year. I think Jay Cutler is going to be a great quarterback, and he could be on the verge of a breakout season, considering it’s his third year in the system and he is finally 100% healthy, after being properly diagnosed and treated for type I diabetes. But you can’t win on passing alone, and it looks like Denver will be mediocre at best this year.

I think the Raiders will improve over last year, and they could potentially have an exciting offense if Russell and McFadden live up to the hype, but this roster still has a lot of holes to fill, and this organization is right up there with the Bengals in terms of dysfunction. I can’t believe Lane Kiffin still has his job. Al Davis tried to fire him, and Kiffin pretty much just said he wasn’t going anywhere. It’s like he’s squatting in his office.

Oh, the poor Chiefs. Rebuilding season. Still, it should be fun to watch Dwayne Bowe, who was great as a rookie and should be even better this time around, and if nothing else, this season should tell Chiefs fans if Brodie Croyle is really the quarterback of the future or not.

Okay, so to recap, here are the AFC division winners.

East: Patriots
North: Steelers
South: Colts
West: Chargers.

And now my wild card predictions: First wild card spot goes to Jacksonville, who has a real chance to unseat the Colts in the South. And the sixth and final playoff spot goes to… oh man, I don’t know… should I do it… ah, what the hell, it’ll make me feel happy… the BUFFALO BILLS! Yeah, I said it!

NFC East:

Arguably the toughest division in football. The Cowboys, Redskins and Giants all made the playoffs last year, and the Eagles weren’t far behind. Because of the talent and quality in this division, a lot of people are expecting it to be a hard-fought competition for the NFC East crown. Even though I agree the division is very good as a whole, I don’t think it will be all that suspenseful. This is the year of the Cowboys.

Dallas was one of only three elite teams in the NFC last year (Dallas and Green Bay were elite during the regular season, the Giants were elite during the playoffs), and they have gotten stronger while the competition has suffered. Green Bay will still be a good team, but you don’t lose a guy like Brett Favre and just go on like nothing happened. It’s possible the Packers will get off to a slow start, not just because of Aaron Rodgers’s inexperience, but also because the offseason’s turmoil may have lingering effects. The Giants deserve respect, but the losses of Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora and Kawika Mitchell will hurt. The pass rush was one of their greatest assets in their Super Bowl run. Where does that come from now?

Meanwhile, the Cowboys took a great team and made it better, adding Zach Thomas and Adam Jones (who, if he can stay out of trouble, is a great player), and finally dumping Julius Jones and naming Marion Barber the starting running back, which they should have done two years ago. Romo, Owens, and tight end Jason Witten form the core of a devastating passing attack. Some people have expressed worries about Dallas’s #2 receiver position, especially considering some of their receivers got hurt in the preseason, but I don’t think this is a concern. For one thing, Witten is the real #2 receiver. For another, Patrick Crayton is a totally respectable option. I know. He had some good games for my fantasy team last year.

Pencil the Cowboys in as a leading Super Bowl contender.

The Eagles could be better this year than they were last year. Or maybe not. It all depends on if McNabb and Westbrook can stay healthy. All signs point to McNabb being healthier than he’s been in years, but how long will that last? Also, they still haven’t really addressed the problem of not having any good receivers. If rookie DeSean Jackson can make an immediate impact, that would help their chances a great deal.

The Giants are a mystery. I don’t think the Super Bowl victory was a fluke, but I’m also not sure how well they’ll handle the losses to their defense. New York will be in the hunt for the playoffs again, certainly, but they might not make it this time.

The Redskins should bring up the rear. Jim Zorn seems like a smart guy, but you have to figure he’ll be a step down from Gibbs. And I’m still not completely sold on Jason Campbell.

NFC North:

Here’s an idea: let’s not talk about the Lions or the Bears. This is a two-horse race between the Packers and the Vikings, and the teams are quite similar. Both have good running games, good defenses, and young unproven quarterbacks. The largest factor in determining who wins the division will be the play of Aaron Rodgers for the Pack and Tarvaris Jackson for the Vikings. And we won’t have to wait long to see who has the upper hand early in the season. Minnesota and Green Bay open the season against each other in one of kickoff weekend’s most interesting games. And it’s on Monday Night Football. Which is on ESPN. Oh shit, I don’t have cable. Well, looks like I’m going to the bar Monday night. The game is at Lambeau, but I would have to give the Vikings the edge right now. Mostly because Minnesota’s defensive line is ferocious, and they are not going to give Rodgers a chance to settle in and get comfortable. It might be a rough debut for the Pack’s new leader. I just hope the fans don’t boo him. Green Bay, you’re classier than that, right? I know you love Favre, but give the kid a fair chance.

I’m going to say that, despite losing the season opener at home, the Packers will recover and win the division. I think they’re a more well-rounded team than Minnesota, and I think that sooner or later Rodgers will be a much better QB than Jackson.

NFC South:

I believe I said in last year’s season preview that I had no idea what to expect from this division, that I didn’t know a great deal about any of the teams in it, and none of them even seem very interesting to me (with the possible exception of New Orleans, because Reggie Bush and Drew Brees are fun). The same still goes. Tampa won the division last year and made a quick exit from the playoffs. I’m sorry, I owe you better analysis than this, but I just hate the NFC South. I’m now going to predict the order of finish, with minimal justification.

Division champ: Carolina Panthers (people underestimate the importance of Jake Delhomme)
Second: New Orleans Saints (could squeak into the playoffs, defense should be a little better this year)
Third: Tampa Bay (how the mighty have fallen!)
Last: Atlanta Falcons (that Vick hangover hasn’t worn off yet. Matt Ryan, that’s your cue)

NFC West:

The Seahawks were close to being another team that I would guarantee as a division winner, but mostly because the rest of the division is so bad. I really don’t think much of Seattle this year. They should have a good defense, and Matt Hasselbeck is solid when healthy, but what else do they have? Their receivers are some of the worst in the league (and injury prone on top of it), and they dumped Shaun Alexander and replaced him with… Julius Jones. Who was a complete disappointment in Dallas. Still, they should be good enough to beat out the Cards, Rams, and Niners. But hopefully not good enough to beat the Bills this weekend.

The Cardinals are probably the second best team here, but they have the same problems they’ve had for years. They won’t run the ball very well, the defense will be porous, and Leinart and Warner will probably each start about half the games. That is not the continuity you need for a playoff run.

I would like to think Mike Martz will improve San Francisco’s offense, but I’m not sure that’s going to happen. J.T. O’Sullivan is your quarterback? Really? Man, how much must Alex Smith suck? I think their only hope is to get Frank Gore as many touches as possible, use him the same way Martz used Marshall Faulk during the glory days in St. Louis. If they can return Gore to his form of two years ago, their offense might have a prayer. But I still see them winning six games, max.

And the Rams. I’m not really sure what to think of this team. I know they were bad last year, but they were plagued by injuries, and things could improve this season. After a lengthy holdout, they signed Steven Jackson. Bulger and Holt should be a prolific duo once again, and they’ll probably put a lot of points on the board if the injury bug stays away. But it sounds like they still can’t play defense, and considering the events of the past few years, it’s not really reasonable to expect Bulger will be in the starting lineup all season. So it looks like it should be another difficult year for St. Louis, but if everything goes their way, they could be a lot better than people expect.

Okay, that makes our NFC playoff picture look like this.

East: Cowboys
North: Packers
South: Panthers
West: Seahawks

Wild Cards: Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles (sorry, Giants. I feel bad, but I call ‘em as I see ‘em).

All right, now to bust out my crystal ball and create my preseason playoff bracket. This is an utterly ridiculous exercise, football is an unpredictable game, but last year my AFC bracket actually came pretty close. The NFC was a mess.

AFC:

Wild Card Round:

Colts over Bills (hey, at least I predicted we would make the playoffs)
Steelers over Jaguars (Pitt gets revenge for last season)

Divisional Round:

Steelers over Chargers (the San Diego press screams for Norv Turner’s head)
Patriots over Colts (oh man, I am not going to enjoy that game)

AFC Championship:

Steelers over Patriots (I’m doing this partly to be contrarian. Everyone is picking either the Pats, the Colts, or the Chargers to come out of the AFC, and for good reason. Those are excellent teams. But the Steelers are sort of flying under the radar, and they also deserve a lot of respect, so they’re my pick. At least I’ll look smart if it works out)

NFC:

Wild Card Round:

Eagles over Seahawks
Vikings over Panthers

Setting up these dream Divisional Round games:

Cowboys over Eagles
Packers over Vikings (now Lambeau loves Rodgers!)

NFC Championship:

Cowboys over Packers

Super Bowl XLIII:

Cowboys 31, Steelers 20.

That’s it, that’s all, that’s all there is, to quote the Beastie Boys. Hope you liked the article, and enjoy the season.