NFL Week 3: Love that Home Cooking

Saturday night, time to make the NFL picks. Looks like home teams should dominate this week.

Oakland at Buffalo: THE BILLS. Should be a good day in Orchard Park. A win will move the Bills to 3-0 for the first time since 1992 (and we reached the Super Bowl that season. Coincidence?). Also, Bruce Smith's name is going up on the Wall of Fame at Ralph Wilson Stadium tomorrow. Wish I could be there, as Bruce is probably my favorite Bill ever, but alas, I am far too busy, and I'm going home next weekend. Didn't think I could take the time to make the trip two weeks in a row. Anyway, I'm pretty confident the Bills will win this game, but I don't think it will be the blowout a lot of people are predicting. Just a gut feeling the hometown heroes might make us sweat a little. Prediction: Should be a good day for Marshawn Lynch. Oakland's run defense is not the best, and I think Lynch will enjoy his first 100-yard day of the season and/or his first multi-touchdown game of 2008.

Kansas City at Atlanta: FALCONS. Not quite sure what to think of Hot-lanta yet, but I know one thing: the Chiefs are really, truly, horrendously awful.

Tampa Bay at Chicago: BEARS. One of the tougher games of the week for me to call. These both look like sort of middle-of-the-road teams. When in doubt, go with the home field advantage.

Houston at Tennessee: TITANS. The Texans do have the advantage of an unexpected extra week of rest, after they were forced to postpone last week's game with the Ravens because of Hurricane Ike. And, despite being blown out by Pittsburgh on opening day, I still think the Texans will be a competitive team this year. But the Titans look like a playoff contender (in fact, if Peyton hadn't orchestrated a great comeback against the Vikings last week, the Titans would be the only team in the division with a win). I am especially impressed by Tennessee's defense. Pretty ferocious bunch.

Carolina at Minnesota: PANTHERS. Switching it up with a road team. This was another tough call for me. I think the switch from Tarvaris Jackson to Gus Frerotte will help Minnesota (wow, typing that sentence was weird), but the Vikes might be missing Adrian Peterson, and Carolina has looked pretty good the first two weeks. Plus they get Steve Smith back for this game, and assuming he doesn't punch a teammate in the face during warm-ups, he should make a difference in the game. And I try to make it a policy to pick the team that has won games in a match up between an undefeated squad and a winless one.

Miami at New England: PATRIOTS. But I have this crazy gut feeling the Fins actually have a chance here. Still, my brain overruled my gut and forced me to pick the team that hasn't lost a regular season game in like 20 months. That feeling in my gut may have been caused by drinking way too much coffee earlier tonight.

Cincinnati at New York Giants: GIANTS. The slam-dunk pick of the week. Yes, the defending champs were beating on a much inferior team last week, but they look really strong. The race for the NFC East promises to be exciting, especially after that epic battle between Dallas and Philly last Monday night.

Arizona at Washington: REDSKINS. Wanted to pick the Cards here, both because I like them better than the 'Skins, and because 'Zona's actually been kind of impressive in their first two games. But I just couldn't wrap my mind around the idea of a world in which the Bills and the Cardinals both start the season 3-0 (by the way, how weird would it be if Buffalo and Arizona both went into their game in week 5 undefeated?). Plus, the Redskins looked feisty against Nawlins last week, and it's a long road trip for the Cards.

New Orleans at Denver: BRONCOS. Okay, I'm ready to admit it. Denver is way better than I thought they would be. That offense is unbelievable. Brandon Marshall looks poised to be one of the NFL's elite receivers for the next decade or so, and Jay Cutler has the look of a Pro Bowl QB. On the other hand, Cutler was really not clutch last week. He threw an interception in the end zone on a drive late in the game when Denver desperately needed points. And yes, he did ultimately rally his team to victory, but only after he benefited from one of the all-time bad officiating calls. Keep in mind he should have ended that game with TWO turnovers in the final minutes that cost his team a chance at the win. Still, he's an extraordinarily talented dude, and the clutch-ness may come later.

Detroit at San Francisco: 49ERS. Pretty nice win for this Niners squad last week, on the road against the Seahawks. And people (myself included) may laugh at the Lions a lot, but they showed some toughness last week. They were a lot closer to beating the Packers than the final score indicates. They actually had a lead in that game in the fourth quarter. Then the wheels fell off at the end, but still, they put up much more of a fight against the Pack than I expected. So I don't think this will be an easy win for the 49ers, but it should be a win. Again, I went with the team that has won over the team that hasn't, and the team that's playing in front of its own fans.

St. Louis at Seattle: SEAHAWKS. Oh no, I can't use the "pick the team that's won a game" strategy, because they're a combined 0-4. Seattle has looked somewhat less terrible than St. Louis. Also sticking with the home team motif. I'm tempted to predict a tie but... nah.

Cleveland at Baltimore: BROWNS. For those keeping track, this is the second road team pick. I feel like this might be a stupid selection. For one thing, I'm bucking the home team trend, and the team-that's-won-over-the team-that-hasn't-won trend (Baltimore's 1-0, Cleveland 0-2). But here's the thing-- I'm not quite ready to forget how bad Baltimore was last season (Remember, they were the "1" in Miami's "1-15"), and their win in week 1 was over the Bengals, who look like one of the NFL's worst teams. Plus there's a lot of talent on this Browns team, and they desperately need this game after losing two consecutive home games to start the season. I think they'll come out flying, knowing that if they drop this one, their season is in serious jeopardy. And Joe Flacco looked good in his debut, but he's a rookie from a small school, and he almost has to struggle at the NFL level. Okay, there we go, talked myself into thinking this Browns pick wasn't a godawful idea. We'll see what the score says.

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia: EAGLES. I agonized over this pick. The Steelers are one of my Super Bowl picks, but Philly has looked great so far, I was even impressed while they lost at Dallas last week. Big Ben's shoulder is a concern, Westbrook and McNabb are on fire right now, and-- again-- the Eagles are at home. So there you have it. By the way-- everyone who follows the NFL has probably seen the famous DeSean Jackson premature celebration fumble play a number of times now, but I read something even funnier about Jackson. He had something similar happen in high school. He celebrated a touchdown by spreading his arms, angel style, and diving into the end zone. Except he-- again-- celebrated a little prematurely and landed at the 1 yard line instead of in the end zone. Maybe someone needs to tell DeSean that old school celebration has merit-- simply spike the ball once you are safely and securely in the end zone.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: COLTS. Neither team has looked impressive thus far, but I liked the grit Indy showed with the comeback last week, and the Colts fit both of the trends in my picks this week.

Dallas at Green Bay: COWBOYS. Road team #3. Wouldn't be very surprised if Green Bay wins, but I've gotta stand behind my Super Bowl team until someone beats them. And, as I pointed out earlier, the Pack came perilously close to losing to the Lions last week, even though the final score wound up looking like a blowout in their favor.

New York Jets at San Diego: CHARGERS. This is the pick I'm probably most confident about this week, after the Giants. And yes, I know the Chargers haven't won yet. But they were real close to being 2-0 instead of 0-2. And, after getting thoroughly screwed by Ed Hochuli last week, you know the Chargers are pissed. Really pissed. This is going to be what Bill Simmons calls "an eff you game" and what I call "a fuck you game" (because I am not censored) for the Chargers. I believe that, even if LT doesn't play or is severely limited, the Chargers will win by a large number of points. Prediction: This is a very good week to start Darren Sproles on your fantasy team.

Oh yeah, update on my record. Went a respectable 11-4 last week, improving the season record to 19-12.

All right, that's all for this week. I'll be back again next Friday or Saturday with the week 4 picks.

-Niztradamus