Thursday, October 30, 2008
My student loan article
Today I got an article published for the first time in a while. It's only in SU's campus newspaper, the Daily Orange, but I still feel good about it. I desperately need published articles to show to potential employers in the future. Granted, I'll probably be doing an internship in the spring semester that will let me get a lot of clips for my portfolio, but it's still nice to get an early start. The article that was printed today was about student loans and how students plan to manage their debt. The original version was quite a bit longer and more detailed, but editors gotta edit. You need to make the article fit the space. Click here to read the story on the D.O.'s website.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
NFL Week 8 Picks
NFL Week 8: London Calling. Also, I Don’t Understand Why Water Pills Are Considered Performance Enhancing Drugs
Hey gang,
It’s been kind of a crazy week (and weekend), which is why I’m making the picks on Sunday morning. So this might not be in time to do you any good, if you’re in a pick ‘em league or enjoy sports betting (who doesn’t?) but the important thing is I’m soldiering on and making the picks, albeit at the last minute. Went 8-6 last week, expecting a better performance this time around. Read on for picks and insight (which may or may not incite change).
Tampa Bay at Dallas: BUCCANEERS. Earlier this week, I felt confident in this pick. Tampa Bay looks dangerous this year. Jeff Garcia is playing unbelievably well for a quarterback his age. The Bucs may actually be the second-best team in the NFC, behind the Giants. Plus the Cowboys are a mess. Pacman suspended again, Romo out, safety Roy Williams out (brief tangent: I‘ve come up with a good way to differentiate between the two Roy Williamses. From now on I will refer to wide receiver Roy Williams as WRoy Williams and strong safety Roy Williams as Roy WilliamSS), people speculating about Wade’s job security. So all things seem to be pointing to the Bucs here. But then I started getting worried. Is this one of those sucker punch games where one team is going to seem so obvious, and then their opponent dominates them? I don’t know. But I worry.
Washington at Detroit: REDSKINS. I remain unimpressed by Washington, but they get the pick again because they’re playing a terrible opponent. Still, NFL teams don’t go 0-16. Cincinnati and Detroit will both win at least once by season’s end. Will this week be the one for either of them? I’m going with Washington, but I won’t be shocked if today is Detroit’s moment in the sun, so to speak. You know, to the extent you can be in the sun when you play in a dome in Detroit.
Buffalo at Miami: THE BILLS. We’ve had success against Chad Pennington in the past, and I’m not too worried about Miami’s passing game. I think anyone who plays the Dolphins needs to be somewhat concerned about the Ronnie Brown factor, but I believe our front seven will be able to handle the Wildcat formation. By the way, the Wildcat is named after the West Genesee Wildcats, the football team of a central New York high school, not far from where I live. The Marshawn Lynch big game watch continues. Six games into the season and no 100-yarders yet? Come on, offensive line, let’s get it together. The Beast must be unleashed! But if Trent keeps completing 80+ percent of his passes, I’ll let it slide.
St. Louis at New England: PATRIOTS. I’m about to say something crazy. Just giving you fair warning. I’m not picking the Rams this week, because as much as they’ve improved, winning on the road in Foxboro is a tough order to fill. BUT… I do think the Rams have an outside shot of making the playoffs. Yes, you read that correctly. Here’s how it could happen. If they lose to the Patriots today, they will drop to 2-5. Obviously, this makes their playoff hopes dim. However, they play in a weak division, and the Rams have been getting better every game this season. At first, the progress was hard to see. When they lost to the Bills by 17 points and dropped to 0-4, things looked dismal. But the Rams were in that game until late in the fourth quarter, and the margin of defeat was actually their smallest of the season to that point. Baby steps, guys. Progress is progress. Then they had a bye week, fired their coach, came back and won two games in a row, looking good doing it. Okay, you may be saying, I see your point, but if they lose today, they’re still 2-5. How do they make the playoffs? Here’s how-- their division is terrible. The Cardinals look scary right now, but you have to expect Kurt Warner to either get injured or suffer a meltdown and start chucking interceptions at some point. Then Matt Leinart will come in, and Matt has not been playing all season, and has probably been spending most of his time having threesomes in hot tubs with supermodels and drinking bottles of Labatt Blue Light delivered by hot girls on skates. Needless to say, he will be rusty. Meanwhile, the Rams will be surging behind them in the standings, and the Cardinals do not exactly have a distinguished history of handling pressure with aplomb and grace.
San Diego at New Orleans at London: CHARGERS. Most of the week, I planned on picking New Orleans. I think they will handle the transatlantic journey better than San Diego, partly because the Chargers played in Buffalo last weekend and then moved on straight to the UK, so it’s been a long time since they’ve seen sunny southern California. I’m switching my pick to the Chargers because of the crazy week the Saints have had. First, they lose Reggie Bush for several games. Then they cross the Atlantic. Then the story breaks that four NFL players have tested positive for banned substances, and three of them are Saints-- defensive end Will Smith, defensive end Charles Grant, and running back Deuce McAllister. With Reggie injured and Deuce staring at a 4-game suspension, I present to you Sentence I Never Thought I Would Write #397: Now might be a good time to sign Pierre Thomas to your fantasy team.
Kansas City at Jersey Jets: JETS. I don’t think this one needs a lot of explanation. The Jets are at home, the Chiefs are terrible, looks like an easy win for the gunslinger’s crew. Hey, remember when everyone loved Larry Johnson and he was a consensus #1 fantasy pick and people talked about him running for over 2,000 yards in a season? Neither do I.
Atlanta at Philadelphia: EAGLES. The Falcons are one of the feel-good stories of this season. Things really couldn’t have worked out better for them with Michael Turner and Matt Ryan. The Eagles, meanwhile, have been troubled. They might be better than their 3-3 record, as some have argued, but they’ve just been too inconsistent to be taken seriously as contenders. Still, have to go with them in this spot because they’re at home, Westbrook is coming back, and they need this win badly.
Oakland at Baltimore: RAVENS. The Raiders playing on the east coast at 1 p.m. against a team with a great defense, and they might be missing Darren McFadden. This should not end well for Oakland. Still, they do have a chance because the Ravens are unpredictable, and half of Baltimore’s team has an injury of some kind. Yesterday, a horse named Raven’s Pass upset Curlin in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. This would be more interesting if the Ravens had a great passing game. Alas, they do not.
Arizona at Carolina: PANTHERS. Don’t talk yourself into picking Arizona. Just don’t do it. I know it’s tempting. They’re coming off back to back victories over the Bills and Cowboys, they just had a bye week, and they look like one of the rising teams in the NFL. You’re tempted, aren’t you? You want to pick the Cardinals. Here’s how to solve that: Remember Arizona’s last road game, against the Jets. Yes, that would be the game when Kurt Warner turned the ball over 6 times and Brett Favre threw 6 touchdown passes. Still thinking of picking the Cards? Slap yourself across the face-- hard-- and take a shot of whiskey. That should clear your head. You’re welcome.
Cleveland at Jacksonville: JAGUARS. The Browns have looked friskier lately, but they’re still not very good and the Jaguars have had an extra week of preparation for this game. Seems fairly straightforward. Of course, nothing is as it seems in the NFL, so the Browns will probably win by 30.
Cincinnati at Houston: TEXANS. Someone look into this for me and find out what Ryan Fitzpatrick’s major was at Harvard. I mean, I know he’s making good money getting thrown to the wolves every week, but it has to be pretty damn unpleasant. You’d think he might want to get started on whatever non-football career he had in mind. I’m sure employers would jump at the chance to hire a guy with a Harvard diploma who also started several games at quarterback in the NFL. At the very least he should be able to turn this into some kind of reality show. Maybe Leinart could be part of this? I don’t know, I’m just kicking ideas around. Back to the game-- look for Andre Johnson to dominate again today.
Jersey Giants at Pittsburgh: GIANTS. Toughest call of the week, without a doubt. I went with the Giants because I have concerns about Pitt’s offensive line, and Willie Parker is still hurt. The Giants’ pass rush should present serious problems for the Steelers. It will still be hard to go into the house that ketchup built and get a win, but I think the champs will be up to the challenge.
Seattle at San Francisco: 49ERS. I guess. Ugh. This is definitely the dog of the week. This might be the game I’ve been least interested in all season. The only flicker of interest I have here is that it’s Mike Singletary’s first game as coach of the Niners. He seems like he would be a good coach, and probably a very intense one. I would be scared of Mike Singletary, whether I was playing for him or against him.
Indianapolis at Tennessee: TITANS. You have to pick Tennessee here. They’re 6-0, Indy is 3-3. The Titans have looked dominant all season; the Colts have shown flashes of brilliance but have been woefully inconsistent. On the other hand, the Colts have owned the Titans in the recent past, and that trend could continue. Maybe the Colts are just in their heads. And before long, the weight of being the only undefeated team in the league will start to take a toll on Tennessee. If this game were in Indy, I would probably take the Colts. But since it’s in Nashville, on Monday night, and the seats will be filled with many thousands of screaming fans falling down drunk on moonshine, gotta go with the Titans. By the way, congrats to LenDale White for finally getting into shape and living up to his potential. I had already written him off as a bust, but he’s proving me wrong. Could this year’s AFC Championship be a rematch of the Music City Miracle game? It doesn’t look all that far-fetched right now. The idea makes me want to hurl, and I’m not sure if it’s excitement or terror.
All right, that’s it. The end of the picks for this week. Writing that article felt good, I have to say. First time I’ve done the meaty, overly long football article in several weeks. Good times. I hope it was as good for you as it was for me. I need a cigarette.
Have a week.
-Niztradamus
Hey gang,
It’s been kind of a crazy week (and weekend), which is why I’m making the picks on Sunday morning. So this might not be in time to do you any good, if you’re in a pick ‘em league or enjoy sports betting (who doesn’t?) but the important thing is I’m soldiering on and making the picks, albeit at the last minute. Went 8-6 last week, expecting a better performance this time around. Read on for picks and insight (which may or may not incite change).
Tampa Bay at Dallas: BUCCANEERS. Earlier this week, I felt confident in this pick. Tampa Bay looks dangerous this year. Jeff Garcia is playing unbelievably well for a quarterback his age. The Bucs may actually be the second-best team in the NFC, behind the Giants. Plus the Cowboys are a mess. Pacman suspended again, Romo out, safety Roy Williams out (brief tangent: I‘ve come up with a good way to differentiate between the two Roy Williamses. From now on I will refer to wide receiver Roy Williams as WRoy Williams and strong safety Roy Williams as Roy WilliamSS), people speculating about Wade’s job security. So all things seem to be pointing to the Bucs here. But then I started getting worried. Is this one of those sucker punch games where one team is going to seem so obvious, and then their opponent dominates them? I don’t know. But I worry.
Washington at Detroit: REDSKINS. I remain unimpressed by Washington, but they get the pick again because they’re playing a terrible opponent. Still, NFL teams don’t go 0-16. Cincinnati and Detroit will both win at least once by season’s end. Will this week be the one for either of them? I’m going with Washington, but I won’t be shocked if today is Detroit’s moment in the sun, so to speak. You know, to the extent you can be in the sun when you play in a dome in Detroit.
Buffalo at Miami: THE BILLS. We’ve had success against Chad Pennington in the past, and I’m not too worried about Miami’s passing game. I think anyone who plays the Dolphins needs to be somewhat concerned about the Ronnie Brown factor, but I believe our front seven will be able to handle the Wildcat formation. By the way, the Wildcat is named after the West Genesee Wildcats, the football team of a central New York high school, not far from where I live. The Marshawn Lynch big game watch continues. Six games into the season and no 100-yarders yet? Come on, offensive line, let’s get it together. The Beast must be unleashed! But if Trent keeps completing 80+ percent of his passes, I’ll let it slide.
St. Louis at New England: PATRIOTS. I’m about to say something crazy. Just giving you fair warning. I’m not picking the Rams this week, because as much as they’ve improved, winning on the road in Foxboro is a tough order to fill. BUT… I do think the Rams have an outside shot of making the playoffs. Yes, you read that correctly. Here’s how it could happen. If they lose to the Patriots today, they will drop to 2-5. Obviously, this makes their playoff hopes dim. However, they play in a weak division, and the Rams have been getting better every game this season. At first, the progress was hard to see. When they lost to the Bills by 17 points and dropped to 0-4, things looked dismal. But the Rams were in that game until late in the fourth quarter, and the margin of defeat was actually their smallest of the season to that point. Baby steps, guys. Progress is progress. Then they had a bye week, fired their coach, came back and won two games in a row, looking good doing it. Okay, you may be saying, I see your point, but if they lose today, they’re still 2-5. How do they make the playoffs? Here’s how-- their division is terrible. The Cardinals look scary right now, but you have to expect Kurt Warner to either get injured or suffer a meltdown and start chucking interceptions at some point. Then Matt Leinart will come in, and Matt has not been playing all season, and has probably been spending most of his time having threesomes in hot tubs with supermodels and drinking bottles of Labatt Blue Light delivered by hot girls on skates. Needless to say, he will be rusty. Meanwhile, the Rams will be surging behind them in the standings, and the Cardinals do not exactly have a distinguished history of handling pressure with aplomb and grace.
San Diego at New Orleans at London: CHARGERS. Most of the week, I planned on picking New Orleans. I think they will handle the transatlantic journey better than San Diego, partly because the Chargers played in Buffalo last weekend and then moved on straight to the UK, so it’s been a long time since they’ve seen sunny southern California. I’m switching my pick to the Chargers because of the crazy week the Saints have had. First, they lose Reggie Bush for several games. Then they cross the Atlantic. Then the story breaks that four NFL players have tested positive for banned substances, and three of them are Saints-- defensive end Will Smith, defensive end Charles Grant, and running back Deuce McAllister. With Reggie injured and Deuce staring at a 4-game suspension, I present to you Sentence I Never Thought I Would Write #397: Now might be a good time to sign Pierre Thomas to your fantasy team.
Kansas City at Jersey Jets: JETS. I don’t think this one needs a lot of explanation. The Jets are at home, the Chiefs are terrible, looks like an easy win for the gunslinger’s crew. Hey, remember when everyone loved Larry Johnson and he was a consensus #1 fantasy pick and people talked about him running for over 2,000 yards in a season? Neither do I.
Atlanta at Philadelphia: EAGLES. The Falcons are one of the feel-good stories of this season. Things really couldn’t have worked out better for them with Michael Turner and Matt Ryan. The Eagles, meanwhile, have been troubled. They might be better than their 3-3 record, as some have argued, but they’ve just been too inconsistent to be taken seriously as contenders. Still, have to go with them in this spot because they’re at home, Westbrook is coming back, and they need this win badly.
Oakland at Baltimore: RAVENS. The Raiders playing on the east coast at 1 p.m. against a team with a great defense, and they might be missing Darren McFadden. This should not end well for Oakland. Still, they do have a chance because the Ravens are unpredictable, and half of Baltimore’s team has an injury of some kind. Yesterday, a horse named Raven’s Pass upset Curlin in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. This would be more interesting if the Ravens had a great passing game. Alas, they do not.
Arizona at Carolina: PANTHERS. Don’t talk yourself into picking Arizona. Just don’t do it. I know it’s tempting. They’re coming off back to back victories over the Bills and Cowboys, they just had a bye week, and they look like one of the rising teams in the NFL. You’re tempted, aren’t you? You want to pick the Cardinals. Here’s how to solve that: Remember Arizona’s last road game, against the Jets. Yes, that would be the game when Kurt Warner turned the ball over 6 times and Brett Favre threw 6 touchdown passes. Still thinking of picking the Cards? Slap yourself across the face-- hard-- and take a shot of whiskey. That should clear your head. You’re welcome.
Cleveland at Jacksonville: JAGUARS. The Browns have looked friskier lately, but they’re still not very good and the Jaguars have had an extra week of preparation for this game. Seems fairly straightforward. Of course, nothing is as it seems in the NFL, so the Browns will probably win by 30.
Cincinnati at Houston: TEXANS. Someone look into this for me and find out what Ryan Fitzpatrick’s major was at Harvard. I mean, I know he’s making good money getting thrown to the wolves every week, but it has to be pretty damn unpleasant. You’d think he might want to get started on whatever non-football career he had in mind. I’m sure employers would jump at the chance to hire a guy with a Harvard diploma who also started several games at quarterback in the NFL. At the very least he should be able to turn this into some kind of reality show. Maybe Leinart could be part of this? I don’t know, I’m just kicking ideas around. Back to the game-- look for Andre Johnson to dominate again today.
Jersey Giants at Pittsburgh: GIANTS. Toughest call of the week, without a doubt. I went with the Giants because I have concerns about Pitt’s offensive line, and Willie Parker is still hurt. The Giants’ pass rush should present serious problems for the Steelers. It will still be hard to go into the house that ketchup built and get a win, but I think the champs will be up to the challenge.
Seattle at San Francisco: 49ERS. I guess. Ugh. This is definitely the dog of the week. This might be the game I’ve been least interested in all season. The only flicker of interest I have here is that it’s Mike Singletary’s first game as coach of the Niners. He seems like he would be a good coach, and probably a very intense one. I would be scared of Mike Singletary, whether I was playing for him or against him.
Indianapolis at Tennessee: TITANS. You have to pick Tennessee here. They’re 6-0, Indy is 3-3. The Titans have looked dominant all season; the Colts have shown flashes of brilliance but have been woefully inconsistent. On the other hand, the Colts have owned the Titans in the recent past, and that trend could continue. Maybe the Colts are just in their heads. And before long, the weight of being the only undefeated team in the league will start to take a toll on Tennessee. If this game were in Indy, I would probably take the Colts. But since it’s in Nashville, on Monday night, and the seats will be filled with many thousands of screaming fans falling down drunk on moonshine, gotta go with the Titans. By the way, congrats to LenDale White for finally getting into shape and living up to his potential. I had already written him off as a bust, but he’s proving me wrong. Could this year’s AFC Championship be a rematch of the Music City Miracle game? It doesn’t look all that far-fetched right now. The idea makes me want to hurl, and I’m not sure if it’s excitement or terror.
All right, that’s it. The end of the picks for this week. Writing that article felt good, I have to say. First time I’ve done the meaty, overly long football article in several weeks. Good times. I hope it was as good for you as it was for me. I need a cigarette.
Have a week.
-Niztradamus
Picks coming, sorry for the delay.
NFL picks will be posted sometime tomorrow morning. I wasted a lot of time and money this weekend. I could have been doing more productive things like analyzing football games, or working on stuff for class, or writing fiction (new short story will be coming sometime this week, by the way. It will be my first piece of short fiction in quite some time, and I'm pumped about it).
Sometimes I feel compelled to do social things because I am occasionally accused of being a hermit, and then I go out and pretend to be social and wind up wishing I had stayed home and worked instead. Sorry, I'm just a little annoyed right now, and mildly intoxicated. Anyway, the point is, NFL picks coming tomorrow morning, new story later in the week. It's a horror tale, just in time for Halloween. Congrats to USC on another win, although they did not triumph by a margin wide enough to make me money. Still, all is forgiven. Fight on.
-Nick
Sometimes I feel compelled to do social things because I am occasionally accused of being a hermit, and then I go out and pretend to be social and wind up wishing I had stayed home and worked instead. Sorry, I'm just a little annoyed right now, and mildly intoxicated. Anyway, the point is, NFL picks coming tomorrow morning, new story later in the week. It's a horror tale, just in time for Halloween. Congrats to USC on another win, although they did not triumph by a margin wide enough to make me money. Still, all is forgiven. Fight on.
-Nick
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Week 7 NFL Picks
Hey gang,
Sorry the picks are last-minute this week. Went out last night, I've been working on a story this weekend, had to work for a few hours yesterday (and will go in for a few more hours today), it's been hectic. Last week I put the most work into my picks of any week all season, and predictably I had my worst week, going only 7-7. So this week I just shot from the hip and used common sense. We'll see if this strategy is any more effective.
San Diego at Buffalo: CHARGERS. I hate myself.
Minnesota at Chicago: BEARS. Two of the most unpredictable teams in the league. Enjoy.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: STEELERS. One of these weeks, Cincy will jump up and win. I'm hoping it's not today.
Tennessee at Kansas City: TITANS.
New Orleans at Carolina: PANTHERS. I was stunned by Carolina's blowout loss to the Bucs last week. But I've learned my lesson-- homefield advantage is everything in this division.
Dallas at St. Louis: COWBOYS. I'm psyched about Roy Williams squared. Now we just need to get both Steve Smiths on the same team. Not only do they have the same name, they play the same position. The world might explode.
Baltimore at Miami: DOLPHINS. Come on, Fins, don't fail me now.
San Francisco at Jersey Giants: GIANTS.
Detroit at Houston: TEXANS. Here's how bad the Lions are-- they are nearly double-digit underdogs to a team that has won one game.
Jersey Jets at Oakland: JETS.
Cleveland at Washington: REDSKINS. But Washington better be careful, Cleveland is finally getting it together, and the Skins really aren't that good.
Indianapolis at Green Bay: COLTS. Peyton is back.
Seattle at Tampa Bay: BUCCANEERS. The Seahawks are falling apart, and Seneca Wallace is not the man to save them.
Denver at New England: BRONCOS. Just because it would make me happy. But go Red Sox!
Okay, those are the picks. As Kevin Smith and Scott Mosier are wont to say, have a week.
-Niztradamus
Sorry the picks are last-minute this week. Went out last night, I've been working on a story this weekend, had to work for a few hours yesterday (and will go in for a few more hours today), it's been hectic. Last week I put the most work into my picks of any week all season, and predictably I had my worst week, going only 7-7. So this week I just shot from the hip and used common sense. We'll see if this strategy is any more effective.
San Diego at Buffalo: CHARGERS. I hate myself.
Minnesota at Chicago: BEARS. Two of the most unpredictable teams in the league. Enjoy.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: STEELERS. One of these weeks, Cincy will jump up and win. I'm hoping it's not today.
Tennessee at Kansas City: TITANS.
New Orleans at Carolina: PANTHERS. I was stunned by Carolina's blowout loss to the Bucs last week. But I've learned my lesson-- homefield advantage is everything in this division.
Dallas at St. Louis: COWBOYS. I'm psyched about Roy Williams squared. Now we just need to get both Steve Smiths on the same team. Not only do they have the same name, they play the same position. The world might explode.
Baltimore at Miami: DOLPHINS. Come on, Fins, don't fail me now.
San Francisco at Jersey Giants: GIANTS.
Detroit at Houston: TEXANS. Here's how bad the Lions are-- they are nearly double-digit underdogs to a team that has won one game.
Jersey Jets at Oakland: JETS.
Cleveland at Washington: REDSKINS. But Washington better be careful, Cleveland is finally getting it together, and the Skins really aren't that good.
Indianapolis at Green Bay: COLTS. Peyton is back.
Seattle at Tampa Bay: BUCCANEERS. The Seahawks are falling apart, and Seneca Wallace is not the man to save them.
Denver at New England: BRONCOS. Just because it would make me happy. But go Red Sox!
Okay, those are the picks. As Kevin Smith and Scott Mosier are wont to say, have a week.
-Niztradamus
Sunday, October 12, 2008
NFL Week 6 Picks
I swear I will get back to writing real blog posts and not just NFL picks eventually, but I continue to be swamped with work.
I actually put effort into my picks this week, rather than just using common sense and my own knowledge of what's going on in the league. I've been somewhat disappointed in my prognostication lately, so I decided to actually look at the stats, crunch the numbers, review the injury reports, etc. Last week I went 8-6, which isn't terrible, but I'm capable of better. The fact that I put more thought and research into the picks is no guarantee I'll do any better this week (in fact, the way the unpredictable NFL goes, it wouldn't be a shock if I do worse), but at least I feel like I have good reasons for every pick I made this week. Here goes:
Chicago at Atlanta: BEARS. You're on notice.
Carolina at Tampa Bay: PANTHERS. Interesting fact: Carolina has the third best point differential in the league, trailing only the two undefeated teams.
St. Louis at Washington: REDSKINS. This one seemed like a no-brainer, but it could be closer than people expect. The Rams are coming off an extra week of rest, the coaching change could inject some energy into them, and I still think Washington is a little overrated, though they're obviously a good team.
Miami at Houston: DOLPHINS. One of the toughest picks of the week, but the Dolphins have statistical advantages in most categories, and they're hot right now, so I had to go with them.
Baltimore at Indianapolis: RAVENS. Feel pretty good about this one. The Colts really don't match up well against the Ravens. And Baltimore is an underdog here. I like them a lot.
Detroit at Minnesota: VIKINGS. One of the easiest picks this week. The only thing the Lions can sort of do well is pass, and they're going to be missing starting QB Jon Kitna. Two of their receivers are on the injury report as well, though they may play.
Oakland at New Orleans: SAINTS. Hard to have faith in New Orleans after they blew the game against the Vikings last week, but they seem to have a clear advantage in talent over the Raiders.
Cincinnati at New York Jets: JETS. Favre is playing great, the Jets had two weeks to prepare for this one, and the 0-5 Bengals will be starting backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who attended Harvard. Enough said.
Jacksonville at Denver: BRONCOS. The Jags continue to be plagued by injuries, and I don't have a great deal of faith in Denver as a team, but they are much better at home.
Dallas at Arizona: CARDINALS. I picked a few underdogs this week, but I'll call this one the upset special. Dallas lost to Washington two weeks ago, then flirted with disaster last week by letting the woeful Bengals back into the game, before finally pulling away. It's also become clear that Arizona is way, way better at home than they are on the road, and Dallas has some injuries in their secondary, so I could see Kurt Warner picking them apart.
Philadelphia at San Francisco: EAGLES. I noticed this pattern last year or two years ago: The Eagles hit a rough patch in the season. The team starts getting frustrated and, eventually, Donovan McNabb makes some controversial, or at least noteworthy, comments in public about how the team needs to play better. The media begins to speculate that Philadelphia has chemistry problems in the locker room. Then McNabb comes out the next week and absolutely devastates whoever the unfortunate opponent might be. No less than 300 yards and 3 touchdowns for Donovan this week. I guarantee it.
Green Bay at Seattle: PACKERS. I know Green Bay has been struggling lately and it's a long trip to Seattle, but I'm feeling good about this one. Especially since Matt Hasselbeck probably is not going to play, and Aaron Rodgers probably is. The Packers get back on track in this one.
New England at San Diego: CHARGERS. Even though the Patriots have lost only one game, and the Chargers have lost three, San Diego seems to have a clear advantage in a number of statistical categories. Plus the game is in California, and I usually like the home team in a cross-country match up. The Pats played in San Francisco last week, and stayed on the West coast rather than flying back to Massachusetts for a few days of practice. This seems to make sense, but the strategy didn't work for the Cardinals when they decided to stay on the East coast for back to back road games against the Redskins and the Jets. The Cardinals lost both games, and gave up 56 points in the game against New York.
New York Giants at Cleveland: GIANTS. The best team in the league against one of the worst. It might be time to start the "When Does Brady Quinn Become Cleveland's Starting QB?" pool.
All right, that's all for this week. I hope my hard work pays off.
-Niztradamus
I actually put effort into my picks this week, rather than just using common sense and my own knowledge of what's going on in the league. I've been somewhat disappointed in my prognostication lately, so I decided to actually look at the stats, crunch the numbers, review the injury reports, etc. Last week I went 8-6, which isn't terrible, but I'm capable of better. The fact that I put more thought and research into the picks is no guarantee I'll do any better this week (in fact, the way the unpredictable NFL goes, it wouldn't be a shock if I do worse), but at least I feel like I have good reasons for every pick I made this week. Here goes:
Chicago at Atlanta: BEARS. You're on notice.
Carolina at Tampa Bay: PANTHERS. Interesting fact: Carolina has the third best point differential in the league, trailing only the two undefeated teams.
St. Louis at Washington: REDSKINS. This one seemed like a no-brainer, but it could be closer than people expect. The Rams are coming off an extra week of rest, the coaching change could inject some energy into them, and I still think Washington is a little overrated, though they're obviously a good team.
Miami at Houston: DOLPHINS. One of the toughest picks of the week, but the Dolphins have statistical advantages in most categories, and they're hot right now, so I had to go with them.
Baltimore at Indianapolis: RAVENS. Feel pretty good about this one. The Colts really don't match up well against the Ravens. And Baltimore is an underdog here. I like them a lot.
Detroit at Minnesota: VIKINGS. One of the easiest picks this week. The only thing the Lions can sort of do well is pass, and they're going to be missing starting QB Jon Kitna. Two of their receivers are on the injury report as well, though they may play.
Oakland at New Orleans: SAINTS. Hard to have faith in New Orleans after they blew the game against the Vikings last week, but they seem to have a clear advantage in talent over the Raiders.
Cincinnati at New York Jets: JETS. Favre is playing great, the Jets had two weeks to prepare for this one, and the 0-5 Bengals will be starting backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who attended Harvard. Enough said.
Jacksonville at Denver: BRONCOS. The Jags continue to be plagued by injuries, and I don't have a great deal of faith in Denver as a team, but they are much better at home.
Dallas at Arizona: CARDINALS. I picked a few underdogs this week, but I'll call this one the upset special. Dallas lost to Washington two weeks ago, then flirted with disaster last week by letting the woeful Bengals back into the game, before finally pulling away. It's also become clear that Arizona is way, way better at home than they are on the road, and Dallas has some injuries in their secondary, so I could see Kurt Warner picking them apart.
Philadelphia at San Francisco: EAGLES. I noticed this pattern last year or two years ago: The Eagles hit a rough patch in the season. The team starts getting frustrated and, eventually, Donovan McNabb makes some controversial, or at least noteworthy, comments in public about how the team needs to play better. The media begins to speculate that Philadelphia has chemistry problems in the locker room. Then McNabb comes out the next week and absolutely devastates whoever the unfortunate opponent might be. No less than 300 yards and 3 touchdowns for Donovan this week. I guarantee it.
Green Bay at Seattle: PACKERS. I know Green Bay has been struggling lately and it's a long trip to Seattle, but I'm feeling good about this one. Especially since Matt Hasselbeck probably is not going to play, and Aaron Rodgers probably is. The Packers get back on track in this one.
New England at San Diego: CHARGERS. Even though the Patriots have lost only one game, and the Chargers have lost three, San Diego seems to have a clear advantage in a number of statistical categories. Plus the game is in California, and I usually like the home team in a cross-country match up. The Pats played in San Francisco last week, and stayed on the West coast rather than flying back to Massachusetts for a few days of practice. This seems to make sense, but the strategy didn't work for the Cardinals when they decided to stay on the East coast for back to back road games against the Redskins and the Jets. The Cardinals lost both games, and gave up 56 points in the game against New York.
New York Giants at Cleveland: GIANTS. The best team in the league against one of the worst. It might be time to start the "When Does Brady Quinn Become Cleveland's Starting QB?" pool.
All right, that's all for this week. I hope my hard work pays off.
-Niztradamus
Saturday, October 4, 2008
NFL Week 5 Picks
Last week was a disappointing one for my picks. Went only 7-6, so I'm now 37-23 on the season. There were some surprising upsets last week, as the Cowboys and the Broncos both fell from the ranks of the unbeaten. Other surprising wins included the Bears over the Eagles and the Buccaneers over the Packers. Guess I'm going to have to start taking the Bucs and the Bears seriously. Now only the Titans, Bills and Giants are undefeated. Will any of them fall this week? Probably not the Giants, who are coming off a bye week and playing at home against the Seahawks. But the Titans and Bills both have tough road games. Tennessee plays at Baltimore in what promises to be a nasty defensive battle. The Bills travel to Arizona for what could be a shootout with the Cards. Here are the picks, with commentary.
Atlanta at Green Bay: PACKERS. I'm not as confident in this pick as I thought I'd be. Aaron Rodgers might not play tomorrow, and my confidence in Green Bay was shaken by last week's loss to Tampa. Plus the Falcons are much, much better than anyone expected. Michael Turner has been fantastic thus far, and Matt Ryan doesn't look half bad, either. Still, gotta go with the Packers, especially since they're at home.
Tennessee at Baltimore: TITANS. I won't be surprised if the Ravens win here. They're a strong team, excellent defensively, and they could use the homefield advantage to deal the Titans their first loss. I'll be interested to see how Kerry Collins plays in this game. Vince Young returned to practice this week, and you know there are going to be some people, both inside and outside the organization, who won't be happy about having their multimillion dollar man sitting the bench. Jeff Fisher has said that Kerry Collins will be the quarterback as long as the team keeps winning. But that's not exactly a vote of confidence, is it? Until now, Collins didn't really have to worry about the pressure, because Vince was not capable of returning to the field. Now that he's getting closer, those doubts may start creeping into Kerry's head. Couple that with a ferocious Baltimore defense, and it wouldn't be a shock if Collins struggles in this game. Still, I went with the Titans because I think they're the better team, overall, and because the Ravens are coming off a hardfought Monday night loss to the Steelers in overtime. That kind of game can take a lot out of a team.
San Diego at Miami: CHARGERS. It will be interesting this week to see if the Dolphins run their crazy offensive formation that worked so well against the Patriots. You know the Chargers have been watching tape of that wingback formation and will be prepared for it. While I think it would be premature to say the Chargers are back to their 2007 form, they have won two games in a row and had an impressive comeback against Oakland last week. If they pound the Dolphins on the road, it could be time to acknowledge the Chargers as contenders once again.
Indianapolis at Houston: COLTS. Much like the Chargers, the Colts are trying to regain their form of years past. At 1-2, the Colts are in serious danger of watching the Tennessee Titans run away with the division Indy has always ruled with an iron fist. The Texans, meanwhile, are struggling more than many people (including myself) thought they would this season. I didn't think they would be a playoff contender in this tough division, but I thought they would consistently give their opponents a tough fight, no matter who they played. So far, they've pretty much been the doormat they've always been. Indianapolis is coming off a bye week, and I expect a much better effort from them than what they've shown so far this season. I'll take the Colts by a comfortable margin.
Seattle at New York Giants: GIANTS. Seattle traveling to the East coast. Giants playing in front of their fans after a week of rest. Should be a win for Eli's gang.
Washington at Philadelphia: EAGLES. I owe the Redskins an apology. I had previously dismissed them as the one team in the NFC East that wasn't a real contender. By beating the mighty Cowboys last week, they proved me wrong. The Redskins must be taken seriously. And, hey, maybe Dan Snyder finally found a coach who will stick around more than a year or two. All that being said, the Eagles are at home, they're a very good team, and this is a must-win for them. Westbrook will probably be back on the field, McNabb should be feeling better than last week, and they know that if they lose this game they will be in a very deep hole in their division. The Eagles will win this game because they have to.
Kansas City at Carolina: PANTHERS. Hey, props to the Chiefs for knocking off the Broncos last week. Nobody saw that coming. Can they pull off another upset on the road against the Cats? My Magic 8 Ball says no. Me too.
Chicago at Detroit: BEARS. Lions fans should (and do) feel good about finally getting rid of Matt Millen. But firing your terrible GM doesn't immediately make your team better, so Detroit fans should still be ready to boo on Sunday.
Tampa Bay at Denver: BUCS. Tampa had an impressive win over the Packers last week. Denver suffered a stunning loss to the lowly Chiefs, in which they proved just how abysmal their defense truly is by letting Larry Johnson run for nearly 200 yards. They made LJ 2008 look like LJ 2005. Plus the Bucs have a defense that looks good enough to at least slow down the Denver offense, even if they can't stop it completely. So the Bucs are the logical pick, right? Yeah, that's what I thought too. Yet for some reason I feel like I'm going to be wrong about this.
Buffalo at Arizona: THE BILLS. I spent a lot of time this week thinking about this game. My initial gut feeling was that the Bills would probably lose. Second road game in a row, against a team with a high-powered offense, and we're missing our top cornerback, Terrence McGee. Sounds like a recipe for defeat. On the other hand, the Cardinals are missing receiver Anquan Boldin, so that might sort of neutralize the loss of McGee, and Arizona did just lose a game by three touchdowns in which their quarterback passed for 472 yards and they scored 35 points. Clearly, the Zona defense has problems. And they're returning home from an extended East coast road trip, so fatigue may be an issue. And Kurt Warner is turnover-prone (he personally turned the ball over six times against the Jets-- three picks, three fumbles lost). The Cardinals are favored by 1.5 points here, and I know a lot of people are picking Arizona to win. But this feels like the kind of game to me where people are going to have all kinds of good reasons for picking the Cardinals before the game, then after Arizona loses all those people are going to be saying, "Wait, I picked a 2-2 team that just allowed 56 points to the Jets to beat one of the last three undefeated teams in the league? Why the hell would I do that?" I will not be one of those people. I stand by the Bills. In Trent We Trust.
Cincinnati at Dallas: COWBOYS. I do not envy the Bengals. Dallas is going to be pissed after losing to Washington last week, and they will vent that frustration by pounding Cincy. Dallas by many points.
New England at San Francisco: PATRIOTS. This is an interesting one. The last time we saw the Patriots they were getting their asses handed to them by the hapless Dolphins, mainly because they couldn't figure out how to defend a high school offensive formation. I wouldn't be stunned if the Pats made it two losses in a row against the Niners. San Fran is better than I thought they would be, they're getting some pretty good play from J.T. O'Sullivan (although I still don't feel good about this. If J.P. Losman and A.J. Feeley taught us anything, it's that an NFL quarterback should not go by his initials), and it's tough for a team to go all the way across the country for a road game. But Bill Belichick tends to bounce back from losses in a big way, and the Patriots have had an extra week to prepare for this one. Gotta go with New England. But I hope I'm wrong. Go J.T.!
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville: JAGUARS. I feel like a sucker picking Jacksonville here, but I couldn't talk myself out of it. The Jags haven't been very impressive this season, and their record is worse than Pittsburgh's. But there are compelling reasons to think the Steelers could lose this game. Injuries are a major concern, of course, as Pittsburgh is looking at starting running back Mewelde Moore in this contest. They also have injuries on the offensive line, which has not been stellar even when healthy. And they're playing on the road after a Monday night game-- an especially physical and lengthy Monday night game, at that. You should downgrade the Steelers a few points just based on that.
Minnesota at New Orleans: VIKINGS. The Vikings are one of the teams I just can't figure out this year. It really seems like they should be better than they are. Of course, I also picked them to lose the one game that they won. This game should be fun to watch. Considering the way the Saints play defense, Adrian Peterson could have a huge day. And I think Minnesota's D is good enough to slow down the Saints' offensive arsenal.
LEE EVANS NOTE: I initially had a pretty negative reaction to the Lee Evans contract extension. I felt that Evans was not worth nearly the amount of money we gave him, which makes him the third highest paid receiver in the league. On the other hand, he is a very good player and a valuable one to the team. Plus I've been critical of Sabres management for not forking over the money to keep players like Chris Drury, Daniel Briere, and Brian Campbell, so it'd be sort of hypocritical of me to attack the Bills for overpaying one of their stars. I also started to feel better about the contract when I looked at some of Evans's stats earlier today. He is quietly having a very good season. He is second in the AFC in receiving yards, trailing only Denver's Brandon Marshall, who is some kind of superhero (supervillain?). I also noticed that, among receivers with at least 10 receptions, Lee is leading the NFL in yards per catch. 13 of his 14 receptions have resulted in either a first down or a touchdown. So I'm OK with the deal. We're cool, Lee. Now go out there and tear the Cardinals to shreds.
For those who haven't been paying attention, here are Trent Edwards's numbers in the fourth quarter this season: 27/35, 350 yards, 3TD, 0 INT, 3 come from behind victories. By the way, that's 77% completions and a 136.6 QB rating.
All right, that's all for this week, kids. Enjoy. Go Bills!
Atlanta at Green Bay: PACKERS. I'm not as confident in this pick as I thought I'd be. Aaron Rodgers might not play tomorrow, and my confidence in Green Bay was shaken by last week's loss to Tampa. Plus the Falcons are much, much better than anyone expected. Michael Turner has been fantastic thus far, and Matt Ryan doesn't look half bad, either. Still, gotta go with the Packers, especially since they're at home.
Tennessee at Baltimore: TITANS. I won't be surprised if the Ravens win here. They're a strong team, excellent defensively, and they could use the homefield advantage to deal the Titans their first loss. I'll be interested to see how Kerry Collins plays in this game. Vince Young returned to practice this week, and you know there are going to be some people, both inside and outside the organization, who won't be happy about having their multimillion dollar man sitting the bench. Jeff Fisher has said that Kerry Collins will be the quarterback as long as the team keeps winning. But that's not exactly a vote of confidence, is it? Until now, Collins didn't really have to worry about the pressure, because Vince was not capable of returning to the field. Now that he's getting closer, those doubts may start creeping into Kerry's head. Couple that with a ferocious Baltimore defense, and it wouldn't be a shock if Collins struggles in this game. Still, I went with the Titans because I think they're the better team, overall, and because the Ravens are coming off a hardfought Monday night loss to the Steelers in overtime. That kind of game can take a lot out of a team.
San Diego at Miami: CHARGERS. It will be interesting this week to see if the Dolphins run their crazy offensive formation that worked so well against the Patriots. You know the Chargers have been watching tape of that wingback formation and will be prepared for it. While I think it would be premature to say the Chargers are back to their 2007 form, they have won two games in a row and had an impressive comeback against Oakland last week. If they pound the Dolphins on the road, it could be time to acknowledge the Chargers as contenders once again.
Indianapolis at Houston: COLTS. Much like the Chargers, the Colts are trying to regain their form of years past. At 1-2, the Colts are in serious danger of watching the Tennessee Titans run away with the division Indy has always ruled with an iron fist. The Texans, meanwhile, are struggling more than many people (including myself) thought they would this season. I didn't think they would be a playoff contender in this tough division, but I thought they would consistently give their opponents a tough fight, no matter who they played. So far, they've pretty much been the doormat they've always been. Indianapolis is coming off a bye week, and I expect a much better effort from them than what they've shown so far this season. I'll take the Colts by a comfortable margin.
Seattle at New York Giants: GIANTS. Seattle traveling to the East coast. Giants playing in front of their fans after a week of rest. Should be a win for Eli's gang.
Washington at Philadelphia: EAGLES. I owe the Redskins an apology. I had previously dismissed them as the one team in the NFC East that wasn't a real contender. By beating the mighty Cowboys last week, they proved me wrong. The Redskins must be taken seriously. And, hey, maybe Dan Snyder finally found a coach who will stick around more than a year or two. All that being said, the Eagles are at home, they're a very good team, and this is a must-win for them. Westbrook will probably be back on the field, McNabb should be feeling better than last week, and they know that if they lose this game they will be in a very deep hole in their division. The Eagles will win this game because they have to.
Kansas City at Carolina: PANTHERS. Hey, props to the Chiefs for knocking off the Broncos last week. Nobody saw that coming. Can they pull off another upset on the road against the Cats? My Magic 8 Ball says no. Me too.
Chicago at Detroit: BEARS. Lions fans should (and do) feel good about finally getting rid of Matt Millen. But firing your terrible GM doesn't immediately make your team better, so Detroit fans should still be ready to boo on Sunday.
Tampa Bay at Denver: BUCS. Tampa had an impressive win over the Packers last week. Denver suffered a stunning loss to the lowly Chiefs, in which they proved just how abysmal their defense truly is by letting Larry Johnson run for nearly 200 yards. They made LJ 2008 look like LJ 2005. Plus the Bucs have a defense that looks good enough to at least slow down the Denver offense, even if they can't stop it completely. So the Bucs are the logical pick, right? Yeah, that's what I thought too. Yet for some reason I feel like I'm going to be wrong about this.
Buffalo at Arizona: THE BILLS. I spent a lot of time this week thinking about this game. My initial gut feeling was that the Bills would probably lose. Second road game in a row, against a team with a high-powered offense, and we're missing our top cornerback, Terrence McGee. Sounds like a recipe for defeat. On the other hand, the Cardinals are missing receiver Anquan Boldin, so that might sort of neutralize the loss of McGee, and Arizona did just lose a game by three touchdowns in which their quarterback passed for 472 yards and they scored 35 points. Clearly, the Zona defense has problems. And they're returning home from an extended East coast road trip, so fatigue may be an issue. And Kurt Warner is turnover-prone (he personally turned the ball over six times against the Jets-- three picks, three fumbles lost). The Cardinals are favored by 1.5 points here, and I know a lot of people are picking Arizona to win. But this feels like the kind of game to me where people are going to have all kinds of good reasons for picking the Cardinals before the game, then after Arizona loses all those people are going to be saying, "Wait, I picked a 2-2 team that just allowed 56 points to the Jets to beat one of the last three undefeated teams in the league? Why the hell would I do that?" I will not be one of those people. I stand by the Bills. In Trent We Trust.
Cincinnati at Dallas: COWBOYS. I do not envy the Bengals. Dallas is going to be pissed after losing to Washington last week, and they will vent that frustration by pounding Cincy. Dallas by many points.
New England at San Francisco: PATRIOTS. This is an interesting one. The last time we saw the Patriots they were getting their asses handed to them by the hapless Dolphins, mainly because they couldn't figure out how to defend a high school offensive formation. I wouldn't be stunned if the Pats made it two losses in a row against the Niners. San Fran is better than I thought they would be, they're getting some pretty good play from J.T. O'Sullivan (although I still don't feel good about this. If J.P. Losman and A.J. Feeley taught us anything, it's that an NFL quarterback should not go by his initials), and it's tough for a team to go all the way across the country for a road game. But Bill Belichick tends to bounce back from losses in a big way, and the Patriots have had an extra week to prepare for this one. Gotta go with New England. But I hope I'm wrong. Go J.T.!
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville: JAGUARS. I feel like a sucker picking Jacksonville here, but I couldn't talk myself out of it. The Jags haven't been very impressive this season, and their record is worse than Pittsburgh's. But there are compelling reasons to think the Steelers could lose this game. Injuries are a major concern, of course, as Pittsburgh is looking at starting running back Mewelde Moore in this contest. They also have injuries on the offensive line, which has not been stellar even when healthy. And they're playing on the road after a Monday night game-- an especially physical and lengthy Monday night game, at that. You should downgrade the Steelers a few points just based on that.
Minnesota at New Orleans: VIKINGS. The Vikings are one of the teams I just can't figure out this year. It really seems like they should be better than they are. Of course, I also picked them to lose the one game that they won. This game should be fun to watch. Considering the way the Saints play defense, Adrian Peterson could have a huge day. And I think Minnesota's D is good enough to slow down the Saints' offensive arsenal.
LEE EVANS NOTE: I initially had a pretty negative reaction to the Lee Evans contract extension. I felt that Evans was not worth nearly the amount of money we gave him, which makes him the third highest paid receiver in the league. On the other hand, he is a very good player and a valuable one to the team. Plus I've been critical of Sabres management for not forking over the money to keep players like Chris Drury, Daniel Briere, and Brian Campbell, so it'd be sort of hypocritical of me to attack the Bills for overpaying one of their stars. I also started to feel better about the contract when I looked at some of Evans's stats earlier today. He is quietly having a very good season. He is second in the AFC in receiving yards, trailing only Denver's Brandon Marshall, who is some kind of superhero (supervillain?). I also noticed that, among receivers with at least 10 receptions, Lee is leading the NFL in yards per catch. 13 of his 14 receptions have resulted in either a first down or a touchdown. So I'm OK with the deal. We're cool, Lee. Now go out there and tear the Cardinals to shreds.
For those who haven't been paying attention, here are Trent Edwards's numbers in the fourth quarter this season: 27/35, 350 yards, 3TD, 0 INT, 3 come from behind victories. By the way, that's 77% completions and a 136.6 QB rating.
All right, that's all for this week, kids. Enjoy. Go Bills!
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