NFL Week 6 Picks

I swear I will get back to writing real blog posts and not just NFL picks eventually, but I continue to be swamped with work.

I actually put effort into my picks this week, rather than just using common sense and my own knowledge of what's going on in the league. I've been somewhat disappointed in my prognostication lately, so I decided to actually look at the stats, crunch the numbers, review the injury reports, etc. Last week I went 8-6, which isn't terrible, but I'm capable of better. The fact that I put more thought and research into the picks is no guarantee I'll do any better this week (in fact, the way the unpredictable NFL goes, it wouldn't be a shock if I do worse), but at least I feel like I have good reasons for every pick I made this week. Here goes:

Chicago at Atlanta: BEARS. You're on notice.

Carolina at Tampa Bay: PANTHERS. Interesting fact: Carolina has the third best point differential in the league, trailing only the two undefeated teams.

St. Louis at Washington: REDSKINS. This one seemed like a no-brainer, but it could be closer than people expect. The Rams are coming off an extra week of rest, the coaching change could inject some energy into them, and I still think Washington is a little overrated, though they're obviously a good team.

Miami at Houston: DOLPHINS. One of the toughest picks of the week, but the Dolphins have statistical advantages in most categories, and they're hot right now, so I had to go with them.

Baltimore at Indianapolis: RAVENS. Feel pretty good about this one. The Colts really don't match up well against the Ravens. And Baltimore is an underdog here. I like them a lot.

Detroit at Minnesota: VIKINGS. One of the easiest picks this week. The only thing the Lions can sort of do well is pass, and they're going to be missing starting QB Jon Kitna. Two of their receivers are on the injury report as well, though they may play.

Oakland at New Orleans: SAINTS. Hard to have faith in New Orleans after they blew the game against the Vikings last week, but they seem to have a clear advantage in talent over the Raiders.

Cincinnati at New York Jets: JETS. Favre is playing great, the Jets had two weeks to prepare for this one, and the 0-5 Bengals will be starting backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who attended Harvard. Enough said.

Jacksonville at Denver: BRONCOS. The Jags continue to be plagued by injuries, and I don't have a great deal of faith in Denver as a team, but they are much better at home.

Dallas at Arizona: CARDINALS. I picked a few underdogs this week, but I'll call this one the upset special. Dallas lost to Washington two weeks ago, then flirted with disaster last week by letting the woeful Bengals back into the game, before finally pulling away. It's also become clear that Arizona is way, way better at home than they are on the road, and Dallas has some injuries in their secondary, so I could see Kurt Warner picking them apart.

Philadelphia at San Francisco: EAGLES. I noticed this pattern last year or two years ago: The Eagles hit a rough patch in the season. The team starts getting frustrated and, eventually, Donovan McNabb makes some controversial, or at least noteworthy, comments in public about how the team needs to play better. The media begins to speculate that Philadelphia has chemistry problems in the locker room. Then McNabb comes out the next week and absolutely devastates whoever the unfortunate opponent might be. No less than 300 yards and 3 touchdowns for Donovan this week. I guarantee it.

Green Bay at Seattle: PACKERS. I know Green Bay has been struggling lately and it's a long trip to Seattle, but I'm feeling good about this one. Especially since Matt Hasselbeck probably is not going to play, and Aaron Rodgers probably is. The Packers get back on track in this one.

New England at San Diego: CHARGERS. Even though the Patriots have lost only one game, and the Chargers have lost three, San Diego seems to have a clear advantage in a number of statistical categories. Plus the game is in California, and I usually like the home team in a cross-country match up. The Pats played in San Francisco last week, and stayed on the West coast rather than flying back to Massachusetts for a few days of practice. This seems to make sense, but the strategy didn't work for the Cardinals when they decided to stay on the East coast for back to back road games against the Redskins and the Jets. The Cardinals lost both games, and gave up 56 points in the game against New York.

New York Giants at Cleveland: GIANTS. The best team in the league against one of the worst. It might be time to start the "When Does Brady Quinn Become Cleveland's Starting QB?" pool.

All right, that's all for this week. I hope my hard work pays off.

-Niztradamus