NFL Week 5 Picks

Last week was a disappointing one for my picks. Went only 7-6, so I'm now 37-23 on the season. There were some surprising upsets last week, as the Cowboys and the Broncos both fell from the ranks of the unbeaten. Other surprising wins included the Bears over the Eagles and the Buccaneers over the Packers. Guess I'm going to have to start taking the Bucs and the Bears seriously. Now only the Titans, Bills and Giants are undefeated. Will any of them fall this week? Probably not the Giants, who are coming off a bye week and playing at home against the Seahawks. But the Titans and Bills both have tough road games. Tennessee plays at Baltimore in what promises to be a nasty defensive battle. The Bills travel to Arizona for what could be a shootout with the Cards. Here are the picks, with commentary.

Atlanta at Green Bay: PACKERS. I'm not as confident in this pick as I thought I'd be. Aaron Rodgers might not play tomorrow, and my confidence in Green Bay was shaken by last week's loss to Tampa. Plus the Falcons are much, much better than anyone expected. Michael Turner has been fantastic thus far, and Matt Ryan doesn't look half bad, either. Still, gotta go with the Packers, especially since they're at home.

Tennessee at Baltimore: TITANS. I won't be surprised if the Ravens win here. They're a strong team, excellent defensively, and they could use the homefield advantage to deal the Titans their first loss. I'll be interested to see how Kerry Collins plays in this game. Vince Young returned to practice this week, and you know there are going to be some people, both inside and outside the organization, who won't be happy about having their multimillion dollar man sitting the bench. Jeff Fisher has said that Kerry Collins will be the quarterback as long as the team keeps winning. But that's not exactly a vote of confidence, is it? Until now, Collins didn't really have to worry about the pressure, because Vince was not capable of returning to the field. Now that he's getting closer, those doubts may start creeping into Kerry's head. Couple that with a ferocious Baltimore defense, and it wouldn't be a shock if Collins struggles in this game. Still, I went with the Titans because I think they're the better team, overall, and because the Ravens are coming off a hardfought Monday night loss to the Steelers in overtime. That kind of game can take a lot out of a team.

San Diego at Miami: CHARGERS. It will be interesting this week to see if the Dolphins run their crazy offensive formation that worked so well against the Patriots. You know the Chargers have been watching tape of that wingback formation and will be prepared for it. While I think it would be premature to say the Chargers are back to their 2007 form, they have won two games in a row and had an impressive comeback against Oakland last week. If they pound the Dolphins on the road, it could be time to acknowledge the Chargers as contenders once again.

Indianapolis at Houston: COLTS. Much like the Chargers, the Colts are trying to regain their form of years past. At 1-2, the Colts are in serious danger of watching the Tennessee Titans run away with the division Indy has always ruled with an iron fist. The Texans, meanwhile, are struggling more than many people (including myself) thought they would this season. I didn't think they would be a playoff contender in this tough division, but I thought they would consistently give their opponents a tough fight, no matter who they played. So far, they've pretty much been the doormat they've always been. Indianapolis is coming off a bye week, and I expect a much better effort from them than what they've shown so far this season. I'll take the Colts by a comfortable margin.

Seattle at New York Giants: GIANTS. Seattle traveling to the East coast. Giants playing in front of their fans after a week of rest. Should be a win for Eli's gang.

Washington at Philadelphia: EAGLES. I owe the Redskins an apology. I had previously dismissed them as the one team in the NFC East that wasn't a real contender. By beating the mighty Cowboys last week, they proved me wrong. The Redskins must be taken seriously. And, hey, maybe Dan Snyder finally found a coach who will stick around more than a year or two. All that being said, the Eagles are at home, they're a very good team, and this is a must-win for them. Westbrook will probably be back on the field, McNabb should be feeling better than last week, and they know that if they lose this game they will be in a very deep hole in their division. The Eagles will win this game because they have to.

Kansas City at Carolina: PANTHERS. Hey, props to the Chiefs for knocking off the Broncos last week. Nobody saw that coming. Can they pull off another upset on the road against the Cats? My Magic 8 Ball says no. Me too.

Chicago at Detroit: BEARS. Lions fans should (and do) feel good about finally getting rid of Matt Millen. But firing your terrible GM doesn't immediately make your team better, so Detroit fans should still be ready to boo on Sunday.

Tampa Bay at Denver: BUCS. Tampa had an impressive win over the Packers last week. Denver suffered a stunning loss to the lowly Chiefs, in which they proved just how abysmal their defense truly is by letting Larry Johnson run for nearly 200 yards. They made LJ 2008 look like LJ 2005. Plus the Bucs have a defense that looks good enough to at least slow down the Denver offense, even if they can't stop it completely. So the Bucs are the logical pick, right? Yeah, that's what I thought too. Yet for some reason I feel like I'm going to be wrong about this.

Buffalo at Arizona: THE BILLS. I spent a lot of time this week thinking about this game. My initial gut feeling was that the Bills would probably lose. Second road game in a row, against a team with a high-powered offense, and we're missing our top cornerback, Terrence McGee. Sounds like a recipe for defeat. On the other hand, the Cardinals are missing receiver Anquan Boldin, so that might sort of neutralize the loss of McGee, and Arizona did just lose a game by three touchdowns in which their quarterback passed for 472 yards and they scored 35 points. Clearly, the Zona defense has problems. And they're returning home from an extended East coast road trip, so fatigue may be an issue. And Kurt Warner is turnover-prone (he personally turned the ball over six times against the Jets-- three picks, three fumbles lost). The Cardinals are favored by 1.5 points here, and I know a lot of people are picking Arizona to win. But this feels like the kind of game to me where people are going to have all kinds of good reasons for picking the Cardinals before the game, then after Arizona loses all those people are going to be saying, "Wait, I picked a 2-2 team that just allowed 56 points to the Jets to beat one of the last three undefeated teams in the league? Why the hell would I do that?" I will not be one of those people. I stand by the Bills. In Trent We Trust.

Cincinnati at Dallas: COWBOYS. I do not envy the Bengals. Dallas is going to be pissed after losing to Washington last week, and they will vent that frustration by pounding Cincy. Dallas by many points.

New England at San Francisco: PATRIOTS. This is an interesting one. The last time we saw the Patriots they were getting their asses handed to them by the hapless Dolphins, mainly because they couldn't figure out how to defend a high school offensive formation. I wouldn't be stunned if the Pats made it two losses in a row against the Niners. San Fran is better than I thought they would be, they're getting some pretty good play from J.T. O'Sullivan (although I still don't feel good about this. If J.P. Losman and A.J. Feeley taught us anything, it's that an NFL quarterback should not go by his initials), and it's tough for a team to go all the way across the country for a road game. But Bill Belichick tends to bounce back from losses in a big way, and the Patriots have had an extra week to prepare for this one. Gotta go with New England. But I hope I'm wrong. Go J.T.!

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville: JAGUARS. I feel like a sucker picking Jacksonville here, but I couldn't talk myself out of it. The Jags haven't been very impressive this season, and their record is worse than Pittsburgh's. But there are compelling reasons to think the Steelers could lose this game. Injuries are a major concern, of course, as Pittsburgh is looking at starting running back Mewelde Moore in this contest. They also have injuries on the offensive line, which has not been stellar even when healthy. And they're playing on the road after a Monday night game-- an especially physical and lengthy Monday night game, at that. You should downgrade the Steelers a few points just based on that.

Minnesota at New Orleans: VIKINGS. The Vikings are one of the teams I just can't figure out this year. It really seems like they should be better than they are. Of course, I also picked them to lose the one game that they won. This game should be fun to watch. Considering the way the Saints play defense, Adrian Peterson could have a huge day. And I think Minnesota's D is good enough to slow down the Saints' offensive arsenal.

LEE EVANS NOTE: I initially had a pretty negative reaction to the Lee Evans contract extension. I felt that Evans was not worth nearly the amount of money we gave him, which makes him the third highest paid receiver in the league. On the other hand, he is a very good player and a valuable one to the team. Plus I've been critical of Sabres management for not forking over the money to keep players like Chris Drury, Daniel Briere, and Brian Campbell, so it'd be sort of hypocritical of me to attack the Bills for overpaying one of their stars. I also started to feel better about the contract when I looked at some of Evans's stats earlier today. He is quietly having a very good season. He is second in the AFC in receiving yards, trailing only Denver's Brandon Marshall, who is some kind of superhero (supervillain?). I also noticed that, among receivers with at least 10 receptions, Lee is leading the NFL in yards per catch. 13 of his 14 receptions have resulted in either a first down or a touchdown. So I'm OK with the deal. We're cool, Lee. Now go out there and tear the Cardinals to shreds.

For those who haven't been paying attention, here are Trent Edwards's numbers in the fourth quarter this season: 27/35, 350 yards, 3TD, 0 INT, 3 come from behind victories. By the way, that's 77% completions and a 136.6 QB rating.

All right, that's all for this week, kids. Enjoy. Go Bills!