Sunday, September 7, 2008

Good first step for the Bills.

I expected the Bills to beat the Seahawks today. In fact, as a 1-point favorite, I thought Buffalo was one of the best plays of the day. But even I did not anticipate they would win by 24 and dominate the game as thoroughly as they did. This is definitely a good sign for the coming season, and a better debut than I thought we could realistically hope for. On the other hand, we shouldn't read too much into this. It's one game. All it means at this point is that we're not going 0-16. Which is nice. There are several reasons we should be cautious about putting too much stock in the win, however. First of all, I have my doubts the Seahawks are going to be a good team this season. Oh, they'll probably win the NFC West, but that's not saying much. They're pretty thin at receiver (even when they're healthy, which they certainly were not today), and Maurice Morris and Julius Jones are clearly not going to provide Seattle with a great running game. I do think Seattle could be a top-1o team defensively, which is one of the reasons we can be proud of today's game. But back to the reasons why we should temper our enthusiasm-- the Seahawks are notoriously bad on the road, especially on the east coast. They were missing several key players due to injuries and suspensions. And we benefited from some really unusual plays that we obviously cannot count on every week.

We scored twice on special teams (Roscoe's punt return and the fake field goal pass), and a special teams turnover gave us a short field and set up another score. While I do believe our special teams are going to be among the best in the league and should give us a little bit of an edge on a weekly basis, one can only assume today's performance was atypical. Keep in mind Roscoe Parrish scored a punt return touchdown on opening day last season, and that was the only one he scored all year.

The offense still must improve if we're going to be a serious playoff contender. Lynch's touchdown run today was impressive, and he had a few other exciting plays-- it's never easy to tackle the guy-- but he still only finished the game with 70-some rushing yards. Trent Edwards was efficient but unspectacular. There were several plays when he missed open receivers. In close games, those are the sorts of plays that will cost you.

Then again, I will admit there is little doubt the offense has improved from last season, and will probably continue to improve as the year goes on. The return of Jason Peters, whenever he gets back, will be a big boost. Trent will only get better, both because this was only his 8th or 9th career start, and because he saw limited action in the preseason, so he probably wasn't completely comfortable in the offense yet. I didn't see much of James Hardy on the field today (or Leodis McKelvin, for that matter), but I think we can reasonably expect him to contribute to some extent later in the season. Being a rookie, Hardy might just need a little more time to learn the offense.

I think the most encouraging thing about today's game was the performance of the defense. I knew the D would be better, but they're a LOT better, if today's game is any indication. I suppose it's possible Seattle just played really, really poorly, but I don't think so. The offensive line is supposed to be one of Seattle's strengths, and our defensive front seven dominated the line of scrimmage. Spencer Johnson, Marcus Stroud, and Kawika Mitchell look like they were worth every penny. The secondary also performed admirably, although I still anticipate we will be vulnerable to big pass plays on occasion.

I am also very excited by the attitude the team displayed today. They looked like a team that really believes they can make the playoffs, and they intend to do just that. I'm not sure how much of the credit for that goes to the coaching staff, and how much goes to leadership by players (for example, Donte Whitner guaranteeing a playoff spot). In terms of the Bills' new attitude, the fake field goal was the most revealing moment.

Leading 20-10 in the second half, the Bills faced a fourth down deep in Seattle territory. As the field goal unit trotted out, I thought to myself (no lie), "This would be the perfect time to try a fake field goal. The Seahawks are happy they kept us out of the end zone, you can see they're relaxed and relieved. They think the drive is over. We've got a two score lead, so if the fake didn't work, we'd still have a cushion to work with, and Seattle wouldn' t even have great field position. Plus, if we make the field goal, it's still a two score game. A touchdown here makes it a three score game, and it would be a backbreaker. The game would be over." So I watched and waited, to see if they would try a little trickery, while the more reasonable part of my brain chimed in. "They're not going to do it. We're a cautious team. We have been for years. This is an easy kick for Lindell, and you don't want to take points off the board. You don't want to give Seattle any momentum. No, they'll just kick the field goal and trust the defense to not blow it."

But, of course, we did go for the fake, and it was somewhat easier than taking candy from a baby. It was the backbreaker I expected it to be. Seattle's return man coughed up the ball on the ensuing kickoff, and Trent Edwards threw a 30 yard TD to Robert Royal on the next play, putting the game completely out of reach. And here's why I think they went for the trick play: First of all, they've said that the new offensive coordinator wants to put more wrinkles in the offense and be less predictable. More importantly, I think this reflects a new, more aggressive philosophy for the coaching staff, from Jauron on down. I think they probably thought back to last season, when we blew games at home against Denver and Dallas that we should have won. Kicking the field goal would have meant the game was still in reach for Seattle, it would have left us open to a replay of last year's horrific season opener against the Broncos. So they went for the kill, and they got it. This is what good teams do.

Looking ahead to next week, we go on the road to play Jacksonville. Before today, I had my doubts we could win that game. It's on the road, the Jags were expected to be a very good team, and they put a pretty good beating on us in Florida last year. (I believe that was the day J.P. Losman's career died) Now I'm more optimistic. We looked better in the opener than I expected, and Jacksonville played poorly in a loss to the Titans. Even if we lose that game, we should be in decent position. Our following three games are against relatively weak opponents (Oakland, St. Louis, Arizona) so even if we lose to the Jags we could be looking at a 4-1 record heading into the bye week. And if we beat Jacksonville... no, I'm getting ahead of myself.

In other NFL news, the big story is obviously the injury to Tom Brady. No one knows how serious it is yet, and I would be willing to bet it's not season-ending. After all, he walked off the field, he didn't ride off it on a cart. On the other hand, sometimes guys can walk on a blown knee, but running on it or planting with that leg is out of the question. So maybe Brady's season is over. And I'm not saying I hope that's the case. Everyone knows I hate the Patriots, and I used to hate Brady. But now I've developed a great respect for his abilities as a player and a leader, and I must admit that when I see or read interviews with him, he actually sounds like a pretty cool guy. I just wish he played for someone else. So, anyway, the point is I don't wish the guy harm. But, if harm has befallen him regardless of my wishes, there's no denying it makes the AFC East (and the entire conference) much more interesting.

Again, it's only one week, but I feel all right about my Steelers-Cowboys Super Bowl prediction. Pittsburgh utterly dominated Houston today, and the Texans were expected to be a highly competitive team this year. The Cowboys are leading Cleveland 28-7 in the fourth quarter as I write this, and it was nearly 35-7, but Romo ended the last drive by throwing an interception into the end zone. So far, this game has supported my predictions that the Cowboys will be the best team in the NFC (or among the best, anyway), and that Cleveland fans have reason to be worried.

By far the most surprising team of the day-- the Atlanta Falcons. Holy shit. Apparently Michael Turner is really pumped to be out of LT's shadow. 220 yards on the ground in his Atlanta debut. And Matt Ryan played an excellent game in the first test of his rookie season. Maybe it was a fluke. But maybe he's going to be an instant success, reminiscent of Ben Roethlisberger. On the other hand, it is entirely possible that the Lions simply have no defense.

I think the Eagles also turned a lot of heads by winning their opener 38-3. Donovan McNabb threw for an absurd amount of yards, especially considering no one has ever heard of the recievers Philly had on the field today (well, fans of Pac-10 football probably know DeSean Jackson, and the rookie from Cal had an excellent game). If McMazing and Westbrook can stay healthy for once, maybe the Cowboys have a legitimate challenger. Okay, I'm done writing for now. Undoubtedly, there will be a lot more posts about the NFL over the next several months.

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