Divisional Round Picks

Hey gang,

So my picks got off to a mediocre start in the first round, as I went 2-2 last weekend. I should have seen San Diego's victory over Indy coming, that was my fault. But I'm still stunned by Arizona beating Atlanta. Not that I thought the Falcons were that good, but I thought the Cardinals were that bad. Anyway, here's what I think about this weekend's games.

Baltimore at Tennessee: TITANS. Tough call in this game. It's a meeting between the two teams that tied for the league lead in point differential in the regular season. Of course, the Titans lost 23-0 to the Colts in a meaningless Week 17 game, and that's the kind of thing that will put a dent in your differential. So it would be easy to toss that game out and say the Titans weren't trying at all, which may be true. But it's also true that you don't want your team coming into the playoffs after such a resounding loss. Hard to figure that one.

I think the Ravens are a bit overrated right now. People are going wild over Ed Reed (understandably so-- he's a great player, but it seems like a lot of people don't realize he's been playing like this for years. And they're making him out to be a touchdown machine. Granted, he does have a nose for the end zone after he intercepts a pass, but come on, he's a safety. He's not going to score-- or even get an interception-- in every game), and everyone seems very impressed with the win in Miami last week. I stand by my statement that the Dolphins were probably the worst 11-5 team in the history of the NFL's 16-game season. I would have taken any playoff team (except the Cardinals) with confidence on the road against Miami.

All that being said, the Ravens are very good. I won't take that away from them. Excellent defense, good running game, quarterback who doesn't make many big mistakes. But the Titans also have an excellent defense, a GREAT running game, and a quarterback who didn't make many mistakes in the regular season. I think that's the key to this game-- how Kerry Collins deals with the pressure of the playoffs. As you may remember, his last postseason meeting with the Ravens didn't go so well. He played for the Giants. Another X-factor is the absence of the Titans' all-pro center Kevin Mawae. If those Baltimore linebackers can rush up the middle against Mawae's understudy, Collins may have a long day. Anyway, I'm going with the Titans because they're well-rested, I think their running game might be able to move the ball against the Ravens, and I have doubts about Baltimore's offense against Tennessee's D. And it seems to me that Kerry Collins has grown more levelheaded with age and probably won't crack under the pressure. So there's the pick. Titans win a close one. Wow, I did not intend to write that much about this game.

Arizona at Carolina: PANTHERS. I was wrong about the Cardinals last week. I'm not wrong this time. The Cardinals were atrocious on the road this season, especially on the east coast, and the Panthers went undefeated at home. Plus the Panthers are just a better team, all-around. As if that weren't enough, receiver Anquan Boldin is hurt and will be limited for the Cardinals, assuming he plays at all. The Panthers will win with ease. Last I saw, the Panthers were about 10-point favorites in this game. I'm not betting this weekend, but if I were, I would have no qualms with that double-digit spread. I think Carolina will win by 20 or more. (Note: if Steve Smith punches a teammate before the game, all bets are off)

Philadelphia at New York Giants: GIANTS. I'm pretty pumped about this game. Too bad I'll be at work for the first half. The Eagles are on fire right now, and they beat the Giants the last time they traveled to Jersey. I desperately wanted to pick the Eagles here, but I still think the champs will step up and do whatever's necessary to win. Brandon Jacobs should be close to 100%, as well, which will be a big boost.

San Diego at Pittsburgh: STEELERS. The Chargers gave the Steelers all they could handle when they came to Pittsburgh in the regular season (the Steelers won 11-10 in that wacky game with the bizarre ending, when it looked like Troy Polamalu scored a defensive TD, but the officials took it off the board, preserving the first ever 11-10 final score in NFL history). I wouldn't be shocked if the Chargers won here. Big Ben suffered a concussion in the last game of the season (when he should have spent the game on the sidelines in the first place, since the game was meaningless and Roethlisberger is the heart and soul of their offense), and he's going to play, but players-- especially quarterbacks-- are rarely themselves when returning from a concussion. I honestly think Ben's health is a bigger concern for the Steelers than Tomlinson's likely absence is for the Chargers. Let's face it-- LT just wasn't that good this season, and Sproles has been fantastic. At this point, and I can't believe I'm saying this, I don't think the Chargers are losing much with Tomlinson in street clothes. However, I strongly suspect that the perpetually shitty condition of Hines Field will make it difficult for the small, speedy Sproles to have the kind of game he usually does. So I'm taking Pittsburgh more or less based on homefield advantage (remember that west coast teams had a terrible record on the east coast this season) and I hope that Roethlisberger isn't too woozy.

As you may have noticed, I took all road teams last week and all home teams this week. That makes sense to me. I haven't looked at the numbers, but I bet road teams have a much higher winning percentage in week 1 of the playoffs than in week 2. In the second round, you have the two best teams in each conference playing at home after a full week of rest against teams that should be inferior. It's a difficult situation for a road team to be in. Still, wild card teams (or at least teams that played in the first round of the playoffs) have had a great deal of success in recent years, so I have a gut feeling we'll see at least one upset this weekend. I just couldn't figure out who it would be, so I took the safer path and picked the teams that are playing at home and are supposed to be better, anyway.

Okay, that's all for this round. Enjoy the games, and I'll be back next week to preview the conference championships.

-Niztradamus