Conference Championship Picks (Part 2)

Okay, back from work. So about that AFC Championship game...

First, let me address that whole "you can't beat a team three times in one season" thing. There's nothing magical about it. It's not like one team is so much better than another if they play twice, but suddenly becomes worse if they meet up for a third time. The reason there have been so many instances of a team losing in the playoffs to a team they beat twice in the regular season is fairly simple-- regardless of those first two games, they're both very good teams. The team that lost the first two meetings (the Ravens, in this case) must have done very, very well throughout the rest of their schedule to overcome those two (minimum) divisional losses to make the playoffs. Including playoffs, the Baltimore Ravens are 13-3 against teams that are not the Pittsburgh Steelers. So, clearly, they're not bad at football. I mean, we're not talking about a good football team playing a bad football team that they beat twice already. The Minnesota Vikings beat the Detroit Lions twice this year, and I would be very confident that if they played a third time, Minnesota would beat them again. But that's the point-- shitty teams don't make the playoffs.

It's always difficult to beat a good team in the NFL, especially a team that knows you as well as a divisional rival. A game like this will almost always be close and hard-fought. You might as well flip a coin. So even though the Ravens are 0-2 against the Steelers this year, a Baltimore victory later today would not be particularly surprising.

But I'm taking the Steelers. I didn't look at a ton of stats when I made my picks or take long, deep looks at individual match-ups (of course, based on how I've done so far this postseason, maybe I should be doing those things). For me, it was pretty simple. I thought that when the Steelers pulled away from the Chargers in the second half last week, they looked better than any playoff team has so far this year. Meanwhile, the Ravens needed a lot of luck to beat the Titans. I'm not saying they're not a good team or that they don't deserve to be here. For one thing, the Titans are better than the Chargers, and they were on the road last week while Pittsburgh was at home, so it's not a shock that Baltimore had more trouble getting to this game than the Steelers did. So I give the Ravens credit. But... they got some damn lucky breaks. Kerry Collins threw an interception in the red zone. Alge Crumpler lost a fumble in the red zone. The officials missed an obvious delay of game penalty that should have been called against Baltimore but wasn't. The Titans lost the player who had been tearing the Ravens apart early in the second half, and couldn't get into an offensive rhythm after that. Of course, the Tennessee turnovers were not entirely a matter of good luck. Good defenses force turnovers, and Baltimore is a very good defense. But it goes back to the great debate about turnovers-- are they mistakes by the offense or great plays by the defense? Well, usually it's a little bit of both. Some are more about luck, some are more about skill. But I always worry about teams that live and die by the turnover, because they're streaky, fluky things. Sometimes a ball gets tipped up in the air and it falls harmlessly to the turf. Sometimes it falls into the waiting arms of a linebacker. Sometimes a fumble bounces to an offensive player or out of bounds. Sometimes it bounces to the defense. To rely on the turnover is to put your team in the hands of fate. And I don't like to rely on luck. That's why things could go badly for the Ravens or the Cardinals if those bounces stop going their way.

I also like the Steelers because I think they might be better now than they have been all season. Willie Parker, who was slowed by injuries for practically the entire year, looked like a healthy running back last week. It's hard for anyone to run against Baltimore, but Fast Willie is the kind of guy, when healthy, who only needs one good block or one missed tackle to wind up in the end zone. Even the great defenses make an occasional mistake, and Parker is a running back who can make people pay for their errors.

Anyway, that's all for this week. I'm probably wrong about everything. I am willing to accept that. I'll be back with a Super Bowl preview at some point.

-N