NFL picks will be posted sometime tomorrow morning. I wasted a lot of time and money this weekend. I could have been doing more productive things like analyzing football games, or working on stuff for class, or writing fiction (new short story will be coming sometime this week, by the way. It will be my first piece of short fiction in quite some time, and I'm pumped about it).
Sometimes I feel compelled to do social things because I am occasionally accused of being a hermit, and then I go out and pretend to be social and wind up wishing I had stayed home and worked instead. Sorry, I'm just a little annoyed right now, and mildly intoxicated. Anyway, the point is, NFL picks coming tomorrow morning, new story later in the week. It's a horror tale, just in time for Halloween. Congrats to USC on another win, although they did not triumph by a margin wide enough to make me money. Still, all is forgiven. Fight on.
-Nick
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Week 7 NFL Picks
Hey gang,
Sorry the picks are last-minute this week. Went out last night, I've been working on a story this weekend, had to work for a few hours yesterday (and will go in for a few more hours today), it's been hectic. Last week I put the most work into my picks of any week all season, and predictably I had my worst week, going only 7-7. So this week I just shot from the hip and used common sense. We'll see if this strategy is any more effective.
San Diego at Buffalo: CHARGERS. I hate myself.
Minnesota at Chicago: BEARS. Two of the most unpredictable teams in the league. Enjoy.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: STEELERS. One of these weeks, Cincy will jump up and win. I'm hoping it's not today.
Tennessee at Kansas City: TITANS.
New Orleans at Carolina: PANTHERS. I was stunned by Carolina's blowout loss to the Bucs last week. But I've learned my lesson-- homefield advantage is everything in this division.
Dallas at St. Louis: COWBOYS. I'm psyched about Roy Williams squared. Now we just need to get both Steve Smiths on the same team. Not only do they have the same name, they play the same position. The world might explode.
Baltimore at Miami: DOLPHINS. Come on, Fins, don't fail me now.
San Francisco at Jersey Giants: GIANTS.
Detroit at Houston: TEXANS. Here's how bad the Lions are-- they are nearly double-digit underdogs to a team that has won one game.
Jersey Jets at Oakland: JETS.
Cleveland at Washington: REDSKINS. But Washington better be careful, Cleveland is finally getting it together, and the Skins really aren't that good.
Indianapolis at Green Bay: COLTS. Peyton is back.
Seattle at Tampa Bay: BUCCANEERS. The Seahawks are falling apart, and Seneca Wallace is not the man to save them.
Denver at New England: BRONCOS. Just because it would make me happy. But go Red Sox!
Okay, those are the picks. As Kevin Smith and Scott Mosier are wont to say, have a week.
-Niztradamus
Sorry the picks are last-minute this week. Went out last night, I've been working on a story this weekend, had to work for a few hours yesterday (and will go in for a few more hours today), it's been hectic. Last week I put the most work into my picks of any week all season, and predictably I had my worst week, going only 7-7. So this week I just shot from the hip and used common sense. We'll see if this strategy is any more effective.
San Diego at Buffalo: CHARGERS. I hate myself.
Minnesota at Chicago: BEARS. Two of the most unpredictable teams in the league. Enjoy.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: STEELERS. One of these weeks, Cincy will jump up and win. I'm hoping it's not today.
Tennessee at Kansas City: TITANS.
New Orleans at Carolina: PANTHERS. I was stunned by Carolina's blowout loss to the Bucs last week. But I've learned my lesson-- homefield advantage is everything in this division.
Dallas at St. Louis: COWBOYS. I'm psyched about Roy Williams squared. Now we just need to get both Steve Smiths on the same team. Not only do they have the same name, they play the same position. The world might explode.
Baltimore at Miami: DOLPHINS. Come on, Fins, don't fail me now.
San Francisco at Jersey Giants: GIANTS.
Detroit at Houston: TEXANS. Here's how bad the Lions are-- they are nearly double-digit underdogs to a team that has won one game.
Jersey Jets at Oakland: JETS.
Cleveland at Washington: REDSKINS. But Washington better be careful, Cleveland is finally getting it together, and the Skins really aren't that good.
Indianapolis at Green Bay: COLTS. Peyton is back.
Seattle at Tampa Bay: BUCCANEERS. The Seahawks are falling apart, and Seneca Wallace is not the man to save them.
Denver at New England: BRONCOS. Just because it would make me happy. But go Red Sox!
Okay, those are the picks. As Kevin Smith and Scott Mosier are wont to say, have a week.
-Niztradamus
Sunday, October 12, 2008
NFL Week 6 Picks
I swear I will get back to writing real blog posts and not just NFL picks eventually, but I continue to be swamped with work.
I actually put effort into my picks this week, rather than just using common sense and my own knowledge of what's going on in the league. I've been somewhat disappointed in my prognostication lately, so I decided to actually look at the stats, crunch the numbers, review the injury reports, etc. Last week I went 8-6, which isn't terrible, but I'm capable of better. The fact that I put more thought and research into the picks is no guarantee I'll do any better this week (in fact, the way the unpredictable NFL goes, it wouldn't be a shock if I do worse), but at least I feel like I have good reasons for every pick I made this week. Here goes:
Chicago at Atlanta: BEARS. You're on notice.
Carolina at Tampa Bay: PANTHERS. Interesting fact: Carolina has the third best point differential in the league, trailing only the two undefeated teams.
St. Louis at Washington: REDSKINS. This one seemed like a no-brainer, but it could be closer than people expect. The Rams are coming off an extra week of rest, the coaching change could inject some energy into them, and I still think Washington is a little overrated, though they're obviously a good team.
Miami at Houston: DOLPHINS. One of the toughest picks of the week, but the Dolphins have statistical advantages in most categories, and they're hot right now, so I had to go with them.
Baltimore at Indianapolis: RAVENS. Feel pretty good about this one. The Colts really don't match up well against the Ravens. And Baltimore is an underdog here. I like them a lot.
Detroit at Minnesota: VIKINGS. One of the easiest picks this week. The only thing the Lions can sort of do well is pass, and they're going to be missing starting QB Jon Kitna. Two of their receivers are on the injury report as well, though they may play.
Oakland at New Orleans: SAINTS. Hard to have faith in New Orleans after they blew the game against the Vikings last week, but they seem to have a clear advantage in talent over the Raiders.
Cincinnati at New York Jets: JETS. Favre is playing great, the Jets had two weeks to prepare for this one, and the 0-5 Bengals will be starting backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who attended Harvard. Enough said.
Jacksonville at Denver: BRONCOS. The Jags continue to be plagued by injuries, and I don't have a great deal of faith in Denver as a team, but they are much better at home.
Dallas at Arizona: CARDINALS. I picked a few underdogs this week, but I'll call this one the upset special. Dallas lost to Washington two weeks ago, then flirted with disaster last week by letting the woeful Bengals back into the game, before finally pulling away. It's also become clear that Arizona is way, way better at home than they are on the road, and Dallas has some injuries in their secondary, so I could see Kurt Warner picking them apart.
Philadelphia at San Francisco: EAGLES. I noticed this pattern last year or two years ago: The Eagles hit a rough patch in the season. The team starts getting frustrated and, eventually, Donovan McNabb makes some controversial, or at least noteworthy, comments in public about how the team needs to play better. The media begins to speculate that Philadelphia has chemistry problems in the locker room. Then McNabb comes out the next week and absolutely devastates whoever the unfortunate opponent might be. No less than 300 yards and 3 touchdowns for Donovan this week. I guarantee it.
Green Bay at Seattle: PACKERS. I know Green Bay has been struggling lately and it's a long trip to Seattle, but I'm feeling good about this one. Especially since Matt Hasselbeck probably is not going to play, and Aaron Rodgers probably is. The Packers get back on track in this one.
New England at San Diego: CHARGERS. Even though the Patriots have lost only one game, and the Chargers have lost three, San Diego seems to have a clear advantage in a number of statistical categories. Plus the game is in California, and I usually like the home team in a cross-country match up. The Pats played in San Francisco last week, and stayed on the West coast rather than flying back to Massachusetts for a few days of practice. This seems to make sense, but the strategy didn't work for the Cardinals when they decided to stay on the East coast for back to back road games against the Redskins and the Jets. The Cardinals lost both games, and gave up 56 points in the game against New York.
New York Giants at Cleveland: GIANTS. The best team in the league against one of the worst. It might be time to start the "When Does Brady Quinn Become Cleveland's Starting QB?" pool.
All right, that's all for this week. I hope my hard work pays off.
-Niztradamus
I actually put effort into my picks this week, rather than just using common sense and my own knowledge of what's going on in the league. I've been somewhat disappointed in my prognostication lately, so I decided to actually look at the stats, crunch the numbers, review the injury reports, etc. Last week I went 8-6, which isn't terrible, but I'm capable of better. The fact that I put more thought and research into the picks is no guarantee I'll do any better this week (in fact, the way the unpredictable NFL goes, it wouldn't be a shock if I do worse), but at least I feel like I have good reasons for every pick I made this week. Here goes:
Chicago at Atlanta: BEARS. You're on notice.
Carolina at Tampa Bay: PANTHERS. Interesting fact: Carolina has the third best point differential in the league, trailing only the two undefeated teams.
St. Louis at Washington: REDSKINS. This one seemed like a no-brainer, but it could be closer than people expect. The Rams are coming off an extra week of rest, the coaching change could inject some energy into them, and I still think Washington is a little overrated, though they're obviously a good team.
Miami at Houston: DOLPHINS. One of the toughest picks of the week, but the Dolphins have statistical advantages in most categories, and they're hot right now, so I had to go with them.
Baltimore at Indianapolis: RAVENS. Feel pretty good about this one. The Colts really don't match up well against the Ravens. And Baltimore is an underdog here. I like them a lot.
Detroit at Minnesota: VIKINGS. One of the easiest picks this week. The only thing the Lions can sort of do well is pass, and they're going to be missing starting QB Jon Kitna. Two of their receivers are on the injury report as well, though they may play.
Oakland at New Orleans: SAINTS. Hard to have faith in New Orleans after they blew the game against the Vikings last week, but they seem to have a clear advantage in talent over the Raiders.
Cincinnati at New York Jets: JETS. Favre is playing great, the Jets had two weeks to prepare for this one, and the 0-5 Bengals will be starting backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who attended Harvard. Enough said.
Jacksonville at Denver: BRONCOS. The Jags continue to be plagued by injuries, and I don't have a great deal of faith in Denver as a team, but they are much better at home.
Dallas at Arizona: CARDINALS. I picked a few underdogs this week, but I'll call this one the upset special. Dallas lost to Washington two weeks ago, then flirted with disaster last week by letting the woeful Bengals back into the game, before finally pulling away. It's also become clear that Arizona is way, way better at home than they are on the road, and Dallas has some injuries in their secondary, so I could see Kurt Warner picking them apart.
Philadelphia at San Francisco: EAGLES. I noticed this pattern last year or two years ago: The Eagles hit a rough patch in the season. The team starts getting frustrated and, eventually, Donovan McNabb makes some controversial, or at least noteworthy, comments in public about how the team needs to play better. The media begins to speculate that Philadelphia has chemistry problems in the locker room. Then McNabb comes out the next week and absolutely devastates whoever the unfortunate opponent might be. No less than 300 yards and 3 touchdowns for Donovan this week. I guarantee it.
Green Bay at Seattle: PACKERS. I know Green Bay has been struggling lately and it's a long trip to Seattle, but I'm feeling good about this one. Especially since Matt Hasselbeck probably is not going to play, and Aaron Rodgers probably is. The Packers get back on track in this one.
New England at San Diego: CHARGERS. Even though the Patriots have lost only one game, and the Chargers have lost three, San Diego seems to have a clear advantage in a number of statistical categories. Plus the game is in California, and I usually like the home team in a cross-country match up. The Pats played in San Francisco last week, and stayed on the West coast rather than flying back to Massachusetts for a few days of practice. This seems to make sense, but the strategy didn't work for the Cardinals when they decided to stay on the East coast for back to back road games against the Redskins and the Jets. The Cardinals lost both games, and gave up 56 points in the game against New York.
New York Giants at Cleveland: GIANTS. The best team in the league against one of the worst. It might be time to start the "When Does Brady Quinn Become Cleveland's Starting QB?" pool.
All right, that's all for this week. I hope my hard work pays off.
-Niztradamus
Saturday, October 4, 2008
NFL Week 5 Picks
Last week was a disappointing one for my picks. Went only 7-6, so I'm now 37-23 on the season. There were some surprising upsets last week, as the Cowboys and the Broncos both fell from the ranks of the unbeaten. Other surprising wins included the Bears over the Eagles and the Buccaneers over the Packers. Guess I'm going to have to start taking the Bucs and the Bears seriously. Now only the Titans, Bills and Giants are undefeated. Will any of them fall this week? Probably not the Giants, who are coming off a bye week and playing at home against the Seahawks. But the Titans and Bills both have tough road games. Tennessee plays at Baltimore in what promises to be a nasty defensive battle. The Bills travel to Arizona for what could be a shootout with the Cards. Here are the picks, with commentary.
Atlanta at Green Bay: PACKERS. I'm not as confident in this pick as I thought I'd be. Aaron Rodgers might not play tomorrow, and my confidence in Green Bay was shaken by last week's loss to Tampa. Plus the Falcons are much, much better than anyone expected. Michael Turner has been fantastic thus far, and Matt Ryan doesn't look half bad, either. Still, gotta go with the Packers, especially since they're at home.
Tennessee at Baltimore: TITANS. I won't be surprised if the Ravens win here. They're a strong team, excellent defensively, and they could use the homefield advantage to deal the Titans their first loss. I'll be interested to see how Kerry Collins plays in this game. Vince Young returned to practice this week, and you know there are going to be some people, both inside and outside the organization, who won't be happy about having their multimillion dollar man sitting the bench. Jeff Fisher has said that Kerry Collins will be the quarterback as long as the team keeps winning. But that's not exactly a vote of confidence, is it? Until now, Collins didn't really have to worry about the pressure, because Vince was not capable of returning to the field. Now that he's getting closer, those doubts may start creeping into Kerry's head. Couple that with a ferocious Baltimore defense, and it wouldn't be a shock if Collins struggles in this game. Still, I went with the Titans because I think they're the better team, overall, and because the Ravens are coming off a hardfought Monday night loss to the Steelers in overtime. That kind of game can take a lot out of a team.
San Diego at Miami: CHARGERS. It will be interesting this week to see if the Dolphins run their crazy offensive formation that worked so well against the Patriots. You know the Chargers have been watching tape of that wingback formation and will be prepared for it. While I think it would be premature to say the Chargers are back to their 2007 form, they have won two games in a row and had an impressive comeback against Oakland last week. If they pound the Dolphins on the road, it could be time to acknowledge the Chargers as contenders once again.
Indianapolis at Houston: COLTS. Much like the Chargers, the Colts are trying to regain their form of years past. At 1-2, the Colts are in serious danger of watching the Tennessee Titans run away with the division Indy has always ruled with an iron fist. The Texans, meanwhile, are struggling more than many people (including myself) thought they would this season. I didn't think they would be a playoff contender in this tough division, but I thought they would consistently give their opponents a tough fight, no matter who they played. So far, they've pretty much been the doormat they've always been. Indianapolis is coming off a bye week, and I expect a much better effort from them than what they've shown so far this season. I'll take the Colts by a comfortable margin.
Seattle at New York Giants: GIANTS. Seattle traveling to the East coast. Giants playing in front of their fans after a week of rest. Should be a win for Eli's gang.
Washington at Philadelphia: EAGLES. I owe the Redskins an apology. I had previously dismissed them as the one team in the NFC East that wasn't a real contender. By beating the mighty Cowboys last week, they proved me wrong. The Redskins must be taken seriously. And, hey, maybe Dan Snyder finally found a coach who will stick around more than a year or two. All that being said, the Eagles are at home, they're a very good team, and this is a must-win for them. Westbrook will probably be back on the field, McNabb should be feeling better than last week, and they know that if they lose this game they will be in a very deep hole in their division. The Eagles will win this game because they have to.
Kansas City at Carolina: PANTHERS. Hey, props to the Chiefs for knocking off the Broncos last week. Nobody saw that coming. Can they pull off another upset on the road against the Cats? My Magic 8 Ball says no. Me too.
Chicago at Detroit: BEARS. Lions fans should (and do) feel good about finally getting rid of Matt Millen. But firing your terrible GM doesn't immediately make your team better, so Detroit fans should still be ready to boo on Sunday.
Tampa Bay at Denver: BUCS. Tampa had an impressive win over the Packers last week. Denver suffered a stunning loss to the lowly Chiefs, in which they proved just how abysmal their defense truly is by letting Larry Johnson run for nearly 200 yards. They made LJ 2008 look like LJ 2005. Plus the Bucs have a defense that looks good enough to at least slow down the Denver offense, even if they can't stop it completely. So the Bucs are the logical pick, right? Yeah, that's what I thought too. Yet for some reason I feel like I'm going to be wrong about this.
Buffalo at Arizona: THE BILLS. I spent a lot of time this week thinking about this game. My initial gut feeling was that the Bills would probably lose. Second road game in a row, against a team with a high-powered offense, and we're missing our top cornerback, Terrence McGee. Sounds like a recipe for defeat. On the other hand, the Cardinals are missing receiver Anquan Boldin, so that might sort of neutralize the loss of McGee, and Arizona did just lose a game by three touchdowns in which their quarterback passed for 472 yards and they scored 35 points. Clearly, the Zona defense has problems. And they're returning home from an extended East coast road trip, so fatigue may be an issue. And Kurt Warner is turnover-prone (he personally turned the ball over six times against the Jets-- three picks, three fumbles lost). The Cardinals are favored by 1.5 points here, and I know a lot of people are picking Arizona to win. But this feels like the kind of game to me where people are going to have all kinds of good reasons for picking the Cardinals before the game, then after Arizona loses all those people are going to be saying, "Wait, I picked a 2-2 team that just allowed 56 points to the Jets to beat one of the last three undefeated teams in the league? Why the hell would I do that?" I will not be one of those people. I stand by the Bills. In Trent We Trust.
Cincinnati at Dallas: COWBOYS. I do not envy the Bengals. Dallas is going to be pissed after losing to Washington last week, and they will vent that frustration by pounding Cincy. Dallas by many points.
New England at San Francisco: PATRIOTS. This is an interesting one. The last time we saw the Patriots they were getting their asses handed to them by the hapless Dolphins, mainly because they couldn't figure out how to defend a high school offensive formation. I wouldn't be stunned if the Pats made it two losses in a row against the Niners. San Fran is better than I thought they would be, they're getting some pretty good play from J.T. O'Sullivan (although I still don't feel good about this. If J.P. Losman and A.J. Feeley taught us anything, it's that an NFL quarterback should not go by his initials), and it's tough for a team to go all the way across the country for a road game. But Bill Belichick tends to bounce back from losses in a big way, and the Patriots have had an extra week to prepare for this one. Gotta go with New England. But I hope I'm wrong. Go J.T.!
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville: JAGUARS. I feel like a sucker picking Jacksonville here, but I couldn't talk myself out of it. The Jags haven't been very impressive this season, and their record is worse than Pittsburgh's. But there are compelling reasons to think the Steelers could lose this game. Injuries are a major concern, of course, as Pittsburgh is looking at starting running back Mewelde Moore in this contest. They also have injuries on the offensive line, which has not been stellar even when healthy. And they're playing on the road after a Monday night game-- an especially physical and lengthy Monday night game, at that. You should downgrade the Steelers a few points just based on that.
Minnesota at New Orleans: VIKINGS. The Vikings are one of the teams I just can't figure out this year. It really seems like they should be better than they are. Of course, I also picked them to lose the one game that they won. This game should be fun to watch. Considering the way the Saints play defense, Adrian Peterson could have a huge day. And I think Minnesota's D is good enough to slow down the Saints' offensive arsenal.
LEE EVANS NOTE: I initially had a pretty negative reaction to the Lee Evans contract extension. I felt that Evans was not worth nearly the amount of money we gave him, which makes him the third highest paid receiver in the league. On the other hand, he is a very good player and a valuable one to the team. Plus I've been critical of Sabres management for not forking over the money to keep players like Chris Drury, Daniel Briere, and Brian Campbell, so it'd be sort of hypocritical of me to attack the Bills for overpaying one of their stars. I also started to feel better about the contract when I looked at some of Evans's stats earlier today. He is quietly having a very good season. He is second in the AFC in receiving yards, trailing only Denver's Brandon Marshall, who is some kind of superhero (supervillain?). I also noticed that, among receivers with at least 10 receptions, Lee is leading the NFL in yards per catch. 13 of his 14 receptions have resulted in either a first down or a touchdown. So I'm OK with the deal. We're cool, Lee. Now go out there and tear the Cardinals to shreds.
For those who haven't been paying attention, here are Trent Edwards's numbers in the fourth quarter this season: 27/35, 350 yards, 3TD, 0 INT, 3 come from behind victories. By the way, that's 77% completions and a 136.6 QB rating.
All right, that's all for this week, kids. Enjoy. Go Bills!
Atlanta at Green Bay: PACKERS. I'm not as confident in this pick as I thought I'd be. Aaron Rodgers might not play tomorrow, and my confidence in Green Bay was shaken by last week's loss to Tampa. Plus the Falcons are much, much better than anyone expected. Michael Turner has been fantastic thus far, and Matt Ryan doesn't look half bad, either. Still, gotta go with the Packers, especially since they're at home.
Tennessee at Baltimore: TITANS. I won't be surprised if the Ravens win here. They're a strong team, excellent defensively, and they could use the homefield advantage to deal the Titans their first loss. I'll be interested to see how Kerry Collins plays in this game. Vince Young returned to practice this week, and you know there are going to be some people, both inside and outside the organization, who won't be happy about having their multimillion dollar man sitting the bench. Jeff Fisher has said that Kerry Collins will be the quarterback as long as the team keeps winning. But that's not exactly a vote of confidence, is it? Until now, Collins didn't really have to worry about the pressure, because Vince was not capable of returning to the field. Now that he's getting closer, those doubts may start creeping into Kerry's head. Couple that with a ferocious Baltimore defense, and it wouldn't be a shock if Collins struggles in this game. Still, I went with the Titans because I think they're the better team, overall, and because the Ravens are coming off a hardfought Monday night loss to the Steelers in overtime. That kind of game can take a lot out of a team.
San Diego at Miami: CHARGERS. It will be interesting this week to see if the Dolphins run their crazy offensive formation that worked so well against the Patriots. You know the Chargers have been watching tape of that wingback formation and will be prepared for it. While I think it would be premature to say the Chargers are back to their 2007 form, they have won two games in a row and had an impressive comeback against Oakland last week. If they pound the Dolphins on the road, it could be time to acknowledge the Chargers as contenders once again.
Indianapolis at Houston: COLTS. Much like the Chargers, the Colts are trying to regain their form of years past. At 1-2, the Colts are in serious danger of watching the Tennessee Titans run away with the division Indy has always ruled with an iron fist. The Texans, meanwhile, are struggling more than many people (including myself) thought they would this season. I didn't think they would be a playoff contender in this tough division, but I thought they would consistently give their opponents a tough fight, no matter who they played. So far, they've pretty much been the doormat they've always been. Indianapolis is coming off a bye week, and I expect a much better effort from them than what they've shown so far this season. I'll take the Colts by a comfortable margin.
Seattle at New York Giants: GIANTS. Seattle traveling to the East coast. Giants playing in front of their fans after a week of rest. Should be a win for Eli's gang.
Washington at Philadelphia: EAGLES. I owe the Redskins an apology. I had previously dismissed them as the one team in the NFC East that wasn't a real contender. By beating the mighty Cowboys last week, they proved me wrong. The Redskins must be taken seriously. And, hey, maybe Dan Snyder finally found a coach who will stick around more than a year or two. All that being said, the Eagles are at home, they're a very good team, and this is a must-win for them. Westbrook will probably be back on the field, McNabb should be feeling better than last week, and they know that if they lose this game they will be in a very deep hole in their division. The Eagles will win this game because they have to.
Kansas City at Carolina: PANTHERS. Hey, props to the Chiefs for knocking off the Broncos last week. Nobody saw that coming. Can they pull off another upset on the road against the Cats? My Magic 8 Ball says no. Me too.
Chicago at Detroit: BEARS. Lions fans should (and do) feel good about finally getting rid of Matt Millen. But firing your terrible GM doesn't immediately make your team better, so Detroit fans should still be ready to boo on Sunday.
Tampa Bay at Denver: BUCS. Tampa had an impressive win over the Packers last week. Denver suffered a stunning loss to the lowly Chiefs, in which they proved just how abysmal their defense truly is by letting Larry Johnson run for nearly 200 yards. They made LJ 2008 look like LJ 2005. Plus the Bucs have a defense that looks good enough to at least slow down the Denver offense, even if they can't stop it completely. So the Bucs are the logical pick, right? Yeah, that's what I thought too. Yet for some reason I feel like I'm going to be wrong about this.
Buffalo at Arizona: THE BILLS. I spent a lot of time this week thinking about this game. My initial gut feeling was that the Bills would probably lose. Second road game in a row, against a team with a high-powered offense, and we're missing our top cornerback, Terrence McGee. Sounds like a recipe for defeat. On the other hand, the Cardinals are missing receiver Anquan Boldin, so that might sort of neutralize the loss of McGee, and Arizona did just lose a game by three touchdowns in which their quarterback passed for 472 yards and they scored 35 points. Clearly, the Zona defense has problems. And they're returning home from an extended East coast road trip, so fatigue may be an issue. And Kurt Warner is turnover-prone (he personally turned the ball over six times against the Jets-- three picks, three fumbles lost). The Cardinals are favored by 1.5 points here, and I know a lot of people are picking Arizona to win. But this feels like the kind of game to me where people are going to have all kinds of good reasons for picking the Cardinals before the game, then after Arizona loses all those people are going to be saying, "Wait, I picked a 2-2 team that just allowed 56 points to the Jets to beat one of the last three undefeated teams in the league? Why the hell would I do that?" I will not be one of those people. I stand by the Bills. In Trent We Trust.
Cincinnati at Dallas: COWBOYS. I do not envy the Bengals. Dallas is going to be pissed after losing to Washington last week, and they will vent that frustration by pounding Cincy. Dallas by many points.
New England at San Francisco: PATRIOTS. This is an interesting one. The last time we saw the Patriots they were getting their asses handed to them by the hapless Dolphins, mainly because they couldn't figure out how to defend a high school offensive formation. I wouldn't be stunned if the Pats made it two losses in a row against the Niners. San Fran is better than I thought they would be, they're getting some pretty good play from J.T. O'Sullivan (although I still don't feel good about this. If J.P. Losman and A.J. Feeley taught us anything, it's that an NFL quarterback should not go by his initials), and it's tough for a team to go all the way across the country for a road game. But Bill Belichick tends to bounce back from losses in a big way, and the Patriots have had an extra week to prepare for this one. Gotta go with New England. But I hope I'm wrong. Go J.T.!
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville: JAGUARS. I feel like a sucker picking Jacksonville here, but I couldn't talk myself out of it. The Jags haven't been very impressive this season, and their record is worse than Pittsburgh's. But there are compelling reasons to think the Steelers could lose this game. Injuries are a major concern, of course, as Pittsburgh is looking at starting running back Mewelde Moore in this contest. They also have injuries on the offensive line, which has not been stellar even when healthy. And they're playing on the road after a Monday night game-- an especially physical and lengthy Monday night game, at that. You should downgrade the Steelers a few points just based on that.
Minnesota at New Orleans: VIKINGS. The Vikings are one of the teams I just can't figure out this year. It really seems like they should be better than they are. Of course, I also picked them to lose the one game that they won. This game should be fun to watch. Considering the way the Saints play defense, Adrian Peterson could have a huge day. And I think Minnesota's D is good enough to slow down the Saints' offensive arsenal.
LEE EVANS NOTE: I initially had a pretty negative reaction to the Lee Evans contract extension. I felt that Evans was not worth nearly the amount of money we gave him, which makes him the third highest paid receiver in the league. On the other hand, he is a very good player and a valuable one to the team. Plus I've been critical of Sabres management for not forking over the money to keep players like Chris Drury, Daniel Briere, and Brian Campbell, so it'd be sort of hypocritical of me to attack the Bills for overpaying one of their stars. I also started to feel better about the contract when I looked at some of Evans's stats earlier today. He is quietly having a very good season. He is second in the AFC in receiving yards, trailing only Denver's Brandon Marshall, who is some kind of superhero (supervillain?). I also noticed that, among receivers with at least 10 receptions, Lee is leading the NFL in yards per catch. 13 of his 14 receptions have resulted in either a first down or a touchdown. So I'm OK with the deal. We're cool, Lee. Now go out there and tear the Cardinals to shreds.
For those who haven't been paying attention, here are Trent Edwards's numbers in the fourth quarter this season: 27/35, 350 yards, 3TD, 0 INT, 3 come from behind victories. By the way, that's 77% completions and a 136.6 QB rating.
All right, that's all for this week, kids. Enjoy. Go Bills!
Friday, September 26, 2008
NFL Week 4: Just Picks
Don't have time to write even a semblance of an article this week, as I'm going home for the weekend and I'm trying to get on the road ASAP. Here we go with the picks. Went 11-5 last week, now 30-17 on the season.
Cleveland at Cincinnati: BENGALS.
Minnesota at Tennessee: TITANS.
Denver at Kansas City: BRONCOS.
San Francisco at New Orleans: SAINTS.
Arizona at New York Jets: CARDINALS.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay: PACKERS. (Why is Green Bay the underdog here? The injuries in the secondary? I don't get it)
Atlanta at Carolina: PANTHERS.
Houston at Jacksonville: JAGUARS.
San Diego at Oakland: CHARGERS.
Buffalo at St. Louis: THE BILLS.
Washington at Dallas: COWBOYS.
Philadelphia at Chicago: EAGLES.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: STEELERS.
Enjoy the games. I'll be back in the 'Cuse in a couple of days.
-Niztradamus.
Cleveland at Cincinnati: BENGALS.
Minnesota at Tennessee: TITANS.
Denver at Kansas City: BRONCOS.
San Francisco at New Orleans: SAINTS.
Arizona at New York Jets: CARDINALS.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay: PACKERS. (Why is Green Bay the underdog here? The injuries in the secondary? I don't get it)
Atlanta at Carolina: PANTHERS.
Houston at Jacksonville: JAGUARS.
San Diego at Oakland: CHARGERS.
Buffalo at St. Louis: THE BILLS.
Washington at Dallas: COWBOYS.
Philadelphia at Chicago: EAGLES.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: STEELERS.
Enjoy the games. I'll be back in the 'Cuse in a couple of days.
-Niztradamus.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
We're #6!
So on ESPN.com's weekly NFL power rankings, the Bills come in at #6 after improving to 3-0 (we were 10th last week). Obviously, this is not unexpected, as we are one of only 6 teams still unbeaten in the league. They didn't simply rank all the unbeatens at the top of the charts. The Eagles and Steelers are in front of us, despite having one loss apiece, and the undefeated Broncos and Ravens (at 2-0) are behind us. So, anyway, the Bills being ranked #6 is about what I would have expected if I had stopped to think about it. But it was still stunning for me to click on the rankings and see the Bills so close to the top of the page. I can't remember the last time we were considered one of the NFL's 6 best teams. Of course, this really has no meaning since it's just one web site's opinion, and the best teams in the league after 3 games won't necessarily be the best teams after 16 games. My mantra right now is "All this means is we can't do worse than 3-13." Hopefully, after we play the Rams next week I'll be saying we can't do worse than 4-12.
Some fans were probably discouraged by the way we struggled against the Raiders last week but I actually found the win encouraging. It's not as if we were revealed to be a mediocre team that lucked out in the first two weeks. We are a legitimately good team that simply played poorly and made a lot of mistakes for three quarters on Sunday. But when it mattered most we asserted ourselves, took control of the game, and made a thrilling comeback. That's the kind of thing good teams do. Everybody makes mistakes, everybody plays a bad game once in a while, but the good teams are the ones who let their bad games hurt them the least. And the Bills managed to escape a bad game with a win on Sunday. I'll take it. I think what happened was we had a letdown game after being really pumped to open the season at home against Seattle, and then getting really pumped up again in Week 2 to go on the road against the Jags, who were expected to be a very good team this year and who put a beating on us last season. Suddenly, we found ourselves making headlines around the league and everyone accepted that we would blow Oakland out of the water (well, not me. Remember, in my picks article I predicted the Bills would make us sweat. I also almost predicted the Dolphins would beat the Patriots... but then I wussed out). We started drinking our own Kool-Aid, thought that all we had to do was show up and we would beat the Raiders, and they nearly caught us sleeping. Nearly.
So I didn't take the loss too hard. A couple things that made it easier to take were that the defending champion Giants, who looked as good as anyone through the first two weeks, had to go to overtime to beat the lowly Bengals. And the mighty Patriots, the proud owners of last year's 16-0 regular season, were blown out by the Dolphins, who won all of 1 game in 2007. So it's safe to say there were some good teams out there who had worse days than the Bills on Sunday.
Hopefully, our young team will have learned its lesson that you can't just show up and win. You have to play hard every game, regardless of the opponent. And I'm hoping that means we'll come out with intensity and put a hurting on the Rams this weekend.
Last season, the Bills finished 30th in total offense and 31st in total defense. This year, we are 15th in total offense and 5th in total defense. Sure, the offense is still middle of the road, but considering we moved up 15 spots, I'll take it. And the improvement by the defense is mind-blowing. In the past two weeks, we've held two pretty damn good rushing teams under 100 yards on the ground. The Raiders gained over 300 rushing yards against the Chiefs, 98 against the Bills. Perhaps the most significant statistic about this year's team is 3rd down defense. Last year, we were terrible on 3rd downs on both sides of the ball. This year? #1 in third down defense, allowing a conversion rate of only 18%. On offense, we're 15th in 3rd down conversion percentage. Again, middle of the pack, but a lot better than last year.
Aside from the defense, the other reason to be confident in the Bills is Trent Edwards. This guy is developing into a good quarterback. He's exceeding all my expectations I had for him this season. He's no longer just a game manager, a guy who's goal is to not lose the game for his team. Trent is a winner, he's put his team on his back the past two weeks and come out with two big victories. When he drops back in the pocket, I feel a confidence I haven't felt in a Bills quarterback in quite a long time.
So we've got a vastly improved defense, a good quarterback who's only going to get better, a respectable offensive line, stellar special teams, a strong young running back, and a receiving corps that looks better than anyone thought it would. (I don't know why, maybe it's Turk Schonert's influence, but Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish suddenly seem better than they've ever been before). That sounds like the composition of a pretty good team, doesn't it?
Then again, we could still go 3-13. Just remind yourself of that before you start dreaming of a Bills-Cowboys three-match.
Some fans were probably discouraged by the way we struggled against the Raiders last week but I actually found the win encouraging. It's not as if we were revealed to be a mediocre team that lucked out in the first two weeks. We are a legitimately good team that simply played poorly and made a lot of mistakes for three quarters on Sunday. But when it mattered most we asserted ourselves, took control of the game, and made a thrilling comeback. That's the kind of thing good teams do. Everybody makes mistakes, everybody plays a bad game once in a while, but the good teams are the ones who let their bad games hurt them the least. And the Bills managed to escape a bad game with a win on Sunday. I'll take it. I think what happened was we had a letdown game after being really pumped to open the season at home against Seattle, and then getting really pumped up again in Week 2 to go on the road against the Jags, who were expected to be a very good team this year and who put a beating on us last season. Suddenly, we found ourselves making headlines around the league and everyone accepted that we would blow Oakland out of the water (well, not me. Remember, in my picks article I predicted the Bills would make us sweat. I also almost predicted the Dolphins would beat the Patriots... but then I wussed out). We started drinking our own Kool-Aid, thought that all we had to do was show up and we would beat the Raiders, and they nearly caught us sleeping. Nearly.
So I didn't take the loss too hard. A couple things that made it easier to take were that the defending champion Giants, who looked as good as anyone through the first two weeks, had to go to overtime to beat the lowly Bengals. And the mighty Patriots, the proud owners of last year's 16-0 regular season, were blown out by the Dolphins, who won all of 1 game in 2007. So it's safe to say there were some good teams out there who had worse days than the Bills on Sunday.
Hopefully, our young team will have learned its lesson that you can't just show up and win. You have to play hard every game, regardless of the opponent. And I'm hoping that means we'll come out with intensity and put a hurting on the Rams this weekend.
Last season, the Bills finished 30th in total offense and 31st in total defense. This year, we are 15th in total offense and 5th in total defense. Sure, the offense is still middle of the road, but considering we moved up 15 spots, I'll take it. And the improvement by the defense is mind-blowing. In the past two weeks, we've held two pretty damn good rushing teams under 100 yards on the ground. The Raiders gained over 300 rushing yards against the Chiefs, 98 against the Bills. Perhaps the most significant statistic about this year's team is 3rd down defense. Last year, we were terrible on 3rd downs on both sides of the ball. This year? #1 in third down defense, allowing a conversion rate of only 18%. On offense, we're 15th in 3rd down conversion percentage. Again, middle of the pack, but a lot better than last year.
Aside from the defense, the other reason to be confident in the Bills is Trent Edwards. This guy is developing into a good quarterback. He's exceeding all my expectations I had for him this season. He's no longer just a game manager, a guy who's goal is to not lose the game for his team. Trent is a winner, he's put his team on his back the past two weeks and come out with two big victories. When he drops back in the pocket, I feel a confidence I haven't felt in a Bills quarterback in quite a long time.
So we've got a vastly improved defense, a good quarterback who's only going to get better, a respectable offensive line, stellar special teams, a strong young running back, and a receiving corps that looks better than anyone thought it would. (I don't know why, maybe it's Turk Schonert's influence, but Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish suddenly seem better than they've ever been before). That sounds like the composition of a pretty good team, doesn't it?
Then again, we could still go 3-13. Just remind yourself of that before you start dreaming of a Bills-Cowboys three-match.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
NFL Week 3: Love that Home Cooking
Saturday night, time to make the NFL picks. Looks like home teams should dominate this week.
Oakland at Buffalo: THE BILLS. Should be a good day in Orchard Park. A win will move the Bills to 3-0 for the first time since 1992 (and we reached the Super Bowl that season. Coincidence?). Also, Bruce Smith's name is going up on the Wall of Fame at Ralph Wilson Stadium tomorrow. Wish I could be there, as Bruce is probably my favorite Bill ever, but alas, I am far too busy, and I'm going home next weekend. Didn't think I could take the time to make the trip two weeks in a row. Anyway, I'm pretty confident the Bills will win this game, but I don't think it will be the blowout a lot of people are predicting. Just a gut feeling the hometown heroes might make us sweat a little. Prediction: Should be a good day for Marshawn Lynch. Oakland's run defense is not the best, and I think Lynch will enjoy his first 100-yard day of the season and/or his first multi-touchdown game of 2008.
Kansas City at Atlanta: FALCONS. Not quite sure what to think of Hot-lanta yet, but I know one thing: the Chiefs are really, truly, horrendously awful.
Tampa Bay at Chicago: BEARS. One of the tougher games of the week for me to call. These both look like sort of middle-of-the-road teams. When in doubt, go with the home field advantage.
Houston at Tennessee: TITANS. The Texans do have the advantage of an unexpected extra week of rest, after they were forced to postpone last week's game with the Ravens because of Hurricane Ike. And, despite being blown out by Pittsburgh on opening day, I still think the Texans will be a competitive team this year. But the Titans look like a playoff contender (in fact, if Peyton hadn't orchestrated a great comeback against the Vikings last week, the Titans would be the only team in the division with a win). I am especially impressed by Tennessee's defense. Pretty ferocious bunch.
Carolina at Minnesota: PANTHERS. Switching it up with a road team. This was another tough call for me. I think the switch from Tarvaris Jackson to Gus Frerotte will help Minnesota (wow, typing that sentence was weird), but the Vikes might be missing Adrian Peterson, and Carolina has looked pretty good the first two weeks. Plus they get Steve Smith back for this game, and assuming he doesn't punch a teammate in the face during warm-ups, he should make a difference in the game. And I try to make it a policy to pick the team that has won games in a match up between an undefeated squad and a winless one.
Miami at New England: PATRIOTS. But I have this crazy gut feeling the Fins actually have a chance here. Still, my brain overruled my gut and forced me to pick the team that hasn't lost a regular season game in like 20 months. That feeling in my gut may have been caused by drinking way too much coffee earlier tonight.
Cincinnati at New York Giants: GIANTS. The slam-dunk pick of the week. Yes, the defending champs were beating on a much inferior team last week, but they look really strong. The race for the NFC East promises to be exciting, especially after that epic battle between Dallas and Philly last Monday night.
Arizona at Washington: REDSKINS. Wanted to pick the Cards here, both because I like them better than the 'Skins, and because 'Zona's actually been kind of impressive in their first two games. But I just couldn't wrap my mind around the idea of a world in which the Bills and the Cardinals both start the season 3-0 (by the way, how weird would it be if Buffalo and Arizona both went into their game in week 5 undefeated?). Plus, the Redskins looked feisty against Nawlins last week, and it's a long road trip for the Cards.
New Orleans at Denver: BRONCOS. Okay, I'm ready to admit it. Denver is way better than I thought they would be. That offense is unbelievable. Brandon Marshall looks poised to be one of the NFL's elite receivers for the next decade or so, and Jay Cutler has the look of a Pro Bowl QB. On the other hand, Cutler was really not clutch last week. He threw an interception in the end zone on a drive late in the game when Denver desperately needed points. And yes, he did ultimately rally his team to victory, but only after he benefited from one of the all-time bad officiating calls. Keep in mind he should have ended that game with TWO turnovers in the final minutes that cost his team a chance at the win. Still, he's an extraordinarily talented dude, and the clutch-ness may come later.
Detroit at San Francisco: 49ERS. Pretty nice win for this Niners squad last week, on the road against the Seahawks. And people (myself included) may laugh at the Lions a lot, but they showed some toughness last week. They were a lot closer to beating the Packers than the final score indicates. They actually had a lead in that game in the fourth quarter. Then the wheels fell off at the end, but still, they put up much more of a fight against the Pack than I expected. So I don't think this will be an easy win for the 49ers, but it should be a win. Again, I went with the team that has won over the team that hasn't, and the team that's playing in front of its own fans.
St. Louis at Seattle: SEAHAWKS. Oh no, I can't use the "pick the team that's won a game" strategy, because they're a combined 0-4. Seattle has looked somewhat less terrible than St. Louis. Also sticking with the home team motif. I'm tempted to predict a tie but... nah.
Cleveland at Baltimore: BROWNS. For those keeping track, this is the second road team pick. I feel like this might be a stupid selection. For one thing, I'm bucking the home team trend, and the team-that's-won-over-the team-that-hasn't-won trend (Baltimore's 1-0, Cleveland 0-2). But here's the thing-- I'm not quite ready to forget how bad Baltimore was last season (Remember, they were the "1" in Miami's "1-15"), and their win in week 1 was over the Bengals, who look like one of the NFL's worst teams. Plus there's a lot of talent on this Browns team, and they desperately need this game after losing two consecutive home games to start the season. I think they'll come out flying, knowing that if they drop this one, their season is in serious jeopardy. And Joe Flacco looked good in his debut, but he's a rookie from a small school, and he almost has to struggle at the NFL level. Okay, there we go, talked myself into thinking this Browns pick wasn't a godawful idea. We'll see what the score says.
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia: EAGLES. I agonized over this pick. The Steelers are one of my Super Bowl picks, but Philly has looked great so far, I was even impressed while they lost at Dallas last week. Big Ben's shoulder is a concern, Westbrook and McNabb are on fire right now, and-- again-- the Eagles are at home. So there you have it. By the way-- everyone who follows the NFL has probably seen the famous DeSean Jackson premature celebration fumble play a number of times now, but I read something even funnier about Jackson. He had something similar happen in high school. He celebrated a touchdown by spreading his arms, angel style, and diving into the end zone. Except he-- again-- celebrated a little prematurely and landed at the 1 yard line instead of in the end zone. Maybe someone needs to tell DeSean that old school celebration has merit-- simply spike the ball once you are safely and securely in the end zone.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: COLTS. Neither team has looked impressive thus far, but I liked the grit Indy showed with the comeback last week, and the Colts fit both of the trends in my picks this week.
Dallas at Green Bay: COWBOYS. Road team #3. Wouldn't be very surprised if Green Bay wins, but I've gotta stand behind my Super Bowl team until someone beats them. And, as I pointed out earlier, the Pack came perilously close to losing to the Lions last week, even though the final score wound up looking like a blowout in their favor.
New York Jets at San Diego: CHARGERS. This is the pick I'm probably most confident about this week, after the Giants. And yes, I know the Chargers haven't won yet. But they were real close to being 2-0 instead of 0-2. And, after getting thoroughly screwed by Ed Hochuli last week, you know the Chargers are pissed. Really pissed. This is going to be what Bill Simmons calls "an eff you game" and what I call "a fuck you game" (because I am not censored) for the Chargers. I believe that, even if LT doesn't play or is severely limited, the Chargers will win by a large number of points. Prediction: This is a very good week to start Darren Sproles on your fantasy team.
Oh yeah, update on my record. Went a respectable 11-4 last week, improving the season record to 19-12.
All right, that's all for this week. I'll be back again next Friday or Saturday with the week 4 picks.
-Niztradamus
Oakland at Buffalo: THE BILLS. Should be a good day in Orchard Park. A win will move the Bills to 3-0 for the first time since 1992 (and we reached the Super Bowl that season. Coincidence?). Also, Bruce Smith's name is going up on the Wall of Fame at Ralph Wilson Stadium tomorrow. Wish I could be there, as Bruce is probably my favorite Bill ever, but alas, I am far too busy, and I'm going home next weekend. Didn't think I could take the time to make the trip two weeks in a row. Anyway, I'm pretty confident the Bills will win this game, but I don't think it will be the blowout a lot of people are predicting. Just a gut feeling the hometown heroes might make us sweat a little. Prediction: Should be a good day for Marshawn Lynch. Oakland's run defense is not the best, and I think Lynch will enjoy his first 100-yard day of the season and/or his first multi-touchdown game of 2008.
Kansas City at Atlanta: FALCONS. Not quite sure what to think of Hot-lanta yet, but I know one thing: the Chiefs are really, truly, horrendously awful.
Tampa Bay at Chicago: BEARS. One of the tougher games of the week for me to call. These both look like sort of middle-of-the-road teams. When in doubt, go with the home field advantage.
Houston at Tennessee: TITANS. The Texans do have the advantage of an unexpected extra week of rest, after they were forced to postpone last week's game with the Ravens because of Hurricane Ike. And, despite being blown out by Pittsburgh on opening day, I still think the Texans will be a competitive team this year. But the Titans look like a playoff contender (in fact, if Peyton hadn't orchestrated a great comeback against the Vikings last week, the Titans would be the only team in the division with a win). I am especially impressed by Tennessee's defense. Pretty ferocious bunch.
Carolina at Minnesota: PANTHERS. Switching it up with a road team. This was another tough call for me. I think the switch from Tarvaris Jackson to Gus Frerotte will help Minnesota (wow, typing that sentence was weird), but the Vikes might be missing Adrian Peterson, and Carolina has looked pretty good the first two weeks. Plus they get Steve Smith back for this game, and assuming he doesn't punch a teammate in the face during warm-ups, he should make a difference in the game. And I try to make it a policy to pick the team that has won games in a match up between an undefeated squad and a winless one.
Miami at New England: PATRIOTS. But I have this crazy gut feeling the Fins actually have a chance here. Still, my brain overruled my gut and forced me to pick the team that hasn't lost a regular season game in like 20 months. That feeling in my gut may have been caused by drinking way too much coffee earlier tonight.
Cincinnati at New York Giants: GIANTS. The slam-dunk pick of the week. Yes, the defending champs were beating on a much inferior team last week, but they look really strong. The race for the NFC East promises to be exciting, especially after that epic battle between Dallas and Philly last Monday night.
Arizona at Washington: REDSKINS. Wanted to pick the Cards here, both because I like them better than the 'Skins, and because 'Zona's actually been kind of impressive in their first two games. But I just couldn't wrap my mind around the idea of a world in which the Bills and the Cardinals both start the season 3-0 (by the way, how weird would it be if Buffalo and Arizona both went into their game in week 5 undefeated?). Plus, the Redskins looked feisty against Nawlins last week, and it's a long road trip for the Cards.
New Orleans at Denver: BRONCOS. Okay, I'm ready to admit it. Denver is way better than I thought they would be. That offense is unbelievable. Brandon Marshall looks poised to be one of the NFL's elite receivers for the next decade or so, and Jay Cutler has the look of a Pro Bowl QB. On the other hand, Cutler was really not clutch last week. He threw an interception in the end zone on a drive late in the game when Denver desperately needed points. And yes, he did ultimately rally his team to victory, but only after he benefited from one of the all-time bad officiating calls. Keep in mind he should have ended that game with TWO turnovers in the final minutes that cost his team a chance at the win. Still, he's an extraordinarily talented dude, and the clutch-ness may come later.
Detroit at San Francisco: 49ERS. Pretty nice win for this Niners squad last week, on the road against the Seahawks. And people (myself included) may laugh at the Lions a lot, but they showed some toughness last week. They were a lot closer to beating the Packers than the final score indicates. They actually had a lead in that game in the fourth quarter. Then the wheels fell off at the end, but still, they put up much more of a fight against the Pack than I expected. So I don't think this will be an easy win for the 49ers, but it should be a win. Again, I went with the team that has won over the team that hasn't, and the team that's playing in front of its own fans.
St. Louis at Seattle: SEAHAWKS. Oh no, I can't use the "pick the team that's won a game" strategy, because they're a combined 0-4. Seattle has looked somewhat less terrible than St. Louis. Also sticking with the home team motif. I'm tempted to predict a tie but... nah.
Cleveland at Baltimore: BROWNS. For those keeping track, this is the second road team pick. I feel like this might be a stupid selection. For one thing, I'm bucking the home team trend, and the team-that's-won-over-the team-that-hasn't-won trend (Baltimore's 1-0, Cleveland 0-2). But here's the thing-- I'm not quite ready to forget how bad Baltimore was last season (Remember, they were the "1" in Miami's "1-15"), and their win in week 1 was over the Bengals, who look like one of the NFL's worst teams. Plus there's a lot of talent on this Browns team, and they desperately need this game after losing two consecutive home games to start the season. I think they'll come out flying, knowing that if they drop this one, their season is in serious jeopardy. And Joe Flacco looked good in his debut, but he's a rookie from a small school, and he almost has to struggle at the NFL level. Okay, there we go, talked myself into thinking this Browns pick wasn't a godawful idea. We'll see what the score says.
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia: EAGLES. I agonized over this pick. The Steelers are one of my Super Bowl picks, but Philly has looked great so far, I was even impressed while they lost at Dallas last week. Big Ben's shoulder is a concern, Westbrook and McNabb are on fire right now, and-- again-- the Eagles are at home. So there you have it. By the way-- everyone who follows the NFL has probably seen the famous DeSean Jackson premature celebration fumble play a number of times now, but I read something even funnier about Jackson. He had something similar happen in high school. He celebrated a touchdown by spreading his arms, angel style, and diving into the end zone. Except he-- again-- celebrated a little prematurely and landed at the 1 yard line instead of in the end zone. Maybe someone needs to tell DeSean that old school celebration has merit-- simply spike the ball once you are safely and securely in the end zone.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: COLTS. Neither team has looked impressive thus far, but I liked the grit Indy showed with the comeback last week, and the Colts fit both of the trends in my picks this week.
Dallas at Green Bay: COWBOYS. Road team #3. Wouldn't be very surprised if Green Bay wins, but I've gotta stand behind my Super Bowl team until someone beats them. And, as I pointed out earlier, the Pack came perilously close to losing to the Lions last week, even though the final score wound up looking like a blowout in their favor.
New York Jets at San Diego: CHARGERS. This is the pick I'm probably most confident about this week, after the Giants. And yes, I know the Chargers haven't won yet. But they were real close to being 2-0 instead of 0-2. And, after getting thoroughly screwed by Ed Hochuli last week, you know the Chargers are pissed. Really pissed. This is going to be what Bill Simmons calls "an eff you game" and what I call "a fuck you game" (because I am not censored) for the Chargers. I believe that, even if LT doesn't play or is severely limited, the Chargers will win by a large number of points. Prediction: This is a very good week to start Darren Sproles on your fantasy team.
Oh yeah, update on my record. Went a respectable 11-4 last week, improving the season record to 19-12.
All right, that's all for this week. I'll be back again next Friday or Saturday with the week 4 picks.
-Niztradamus
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